Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data

May 1, 2012

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing contemporaneous real sector performance in LICs in the absence of high-frequency, and often outdated, GDP data. It could also serve as a useful tool for policymakers to gauge short-term dynamics of economic activity and shape appropriate and timely policy responses.

Subject: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Taxes, Value-added tax

Keywords: Business cycles, CIEA Index, CIEA series, Cyclical indicators, Economic Activity, GDP, GDP estimate, Global, high-frequency GDP, Inflation, interpolated GDP, Short-Term Dynamics, Value-added tax, WP

Pages:
20
Volume:
2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475503487.001
Issue:
119
Series:
Working Paper No. 2012/119
Stock No:
WPIEA2012119
ISBN:
9781475503487
ISSN:
1018-5941

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