COVID-19
The IMF is fully committed to supporting our member countries, particularly the most vulnerable; we have the tools to help; and we are coordinating closely with our partner institutions.
This technical assistance report summarizes the findings and recommendations from two missions conducted by the International Monetary Fund to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) in 2023. The missions aimed to assess and enhance the forecasting performance of the central bank’s core macroeconomic projection tool, which supports its inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. The tool was found to be broadly adequate, with recalibration yielding marginal improvements in forecast accuracy. A new forecast quality monitoring tool was developed and integrated into the forecasting system to track forecast errors and provide early warnings. Key recommendations include investment in continuous human resource development and in the retention of expertise.
Governments can protect vulnerable households, keep businesses open, and preserve price signals without straining public finances
Resilience, supervision, and international coordination are essential to safeguarding global financial markets as new AI tools enable attackers
Fiscal pressures in developing countries make stronger domestic revenue systems more important than ever
Shipping and flight disruptions highlight new fault lines in the global economy and their costs for growth and livelihoods
To weather the shock, policymakers should ensure that any near-term measures are time-bound and targeted at the most vulnerable, and maintain the focus on medium-term development objectives
Countries face vastly different exposure to higher oil prices and supply uncertainty, shaped by whether they import or export, and how much policy space they have to respond
