World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges

World Economic Outlook

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World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook, October 2017<br>Seeking Sustainable Growth:<br> <small>Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges</small>

October 2017

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Introduction

Full Report

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp stepdown in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. For policymakers, the welcome cyclical pickup in global activity provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle key challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks.

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Chapter 1:Global Prospects and Policies

The earlier projected increase in growth is strengthening. Notable pickups in investment, trade, and industrial production, coupled with stronger business and consumer confidence, are supporting the recovery. With early 2017 growth generally stronger than expected, upward revisions to projections are broad based, including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russia, more than offsetting downward revisions for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India. After disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup provides an ideal window of opportunity for policymakers to undertake critical reforms to stave off downside risks, raise potential output, and improve living standards more broadly.

Full Text of Chapter 1 Blog

Table of Contents and Data

Recent Developments and Prospects
The Forecast
Risks
Policy Priorities
Scenario Box 1. Impact of Recommended Policies in the Group of Twenty Economies
Box 1.1. Labor Force Participation Rates in Advanced Economies
Box 1.2. Will the Revival in Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Be Sustained?
Box 1.3. Emerging Market and Developing Economy Growth: Heterogeneity and Income Convergence over the Forecast Horizon
Box 1.4. Macroeconomic Adjustment In Emerging Market Commodity Exporters
Box 1.5. Remittances and Consumption Smoothing
Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts
References

Tables

Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Scenario Table 1. Assumed Policy Actions Relative to the WEO Baseline
Table 1.3.1. Correlates of Growth Projections, EMDEs, 2017–22
Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output

Figures
Chart	Data	1.1	Global Activity Indicators
Chart	Data	1.2	Global Fixed Investment and Trade
Chart	Data	1.3	Commodity Prices
Chart	Data	1.4	Global Inflation
Chart	Data	1.5	Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions
Chart	Data	1.6	Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, November 2016–September 2017
Chart	Data	1.7	Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit
Chart	Data	1.8	Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates
Chart	Data	1.9	Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows
Chart	Data	1.10	Revisions to 2017 Growth and 2016 Output Gaps
Chart	Data	1.11	Emerging Markets: Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses
Chart	Data	1.12	GDP Growth, 1999–2022
Chart	Data	1.13	Fiscal Indicators
Chart	Data	1.14	Global Current Account Balances
Chart	Data	1.15	Real Exchange Rates and Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals
Chart	Data	1.16	Net International Investment Positions
Chart	Data	1.17	Geopolitical Risk Index
Chart	Data	1.18	Risks to the Global Outlook
Chart	Data	1.19	Recession and Deflation Risks
Chart	Data	1.20	Advanced Economy Output Gaps, 2017
Chart	Data	1.21	Emerging Market and Developing Economy Output Gaps, 2017
Chart	Data	1.22	Per Capita Real GDP Growth across Low-Income Developing Countries
Chart	Data	Scen. Fig. 1	Group of Twenty Macro Scenario
Chart	Data	1.1.1	Population Shares by Age Group and Gender
Chart	Data	1.1.2	Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group and Gender
Chart	Data	1.1.3	Decomposition of Change in Labor Force Participation Rate, 2017–16
Chart	Data	1.1.4	Changes in Labor Force Participation, Select Advanced Economies, 2007–16
Chart	Data	1.1.5	Changes in Labor Force Participation Rates for the 25–54 Age Group by Gender, Select Advanced Economies
Chart	Data	1.1.6	Convergence in Female Labor Force Participation Rates
Chart	Data	1.2.1	Capital Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Chart	Data	1.2.2	China: Reserves and Capital Flows
Chart	Data	1.2.3	Latest Capital Flows Trends and Prospects
Chart	Data	1.3.1	Per Capita Real GDP Growth across Country Groups
Chart	Data	1.3.2	Per Capita Real GDP Growth, Emerging Market and Developing Economies, by Region
Chart	Data	1.3.3	EMDEs' per Capita Real GDP Growth Differentials vis-à-vis Advanced Economies: 1995–2016 versus 2017–22
Chart	Data	1.3.4	Distribution of EMDE per Capita Real GDP Growth Differentials with Respect to Advanced Economies
Chart	Data	1.3.5	Distribution of EMDE per Capita Real GDP Growth Differentials with Respect to Advanced Economies, by Type of Export Earnings and Region
Chart	Data	1.3.6	Distribution of EMDE Population by per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate
Chart	Data	1.3.7	Projected per Capita Real GDP Growth Rates and 2011 Real Income Levels, AEs and EMDEs
Chart	Data	1.4.1	Commodity Prices
Chart	Data	1.4.2	Exchange Rate Regimes of Commodity-Exporting Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Chart	Data	1.4.3	Commodity Terms of Trade
Chart	Data	1.4.4	Evolution of Exchange Rates
Chart	Data	1.4.5	Net Export Adjustment, 2013–16
Chart	Data	1.4.6	Fiscal Indicators
Chart	Data	1.4.7	Change in per Capita GDP Growth and Inflation in Fuel Exporters, Conditional on CToT
Chart	Data	1.5.1	Net Remittances as a Share of Output, 2015
Chart	Data	1.5.2	Financial Integration
Chart	Data	1.5.3	Smoothing Effects of Remittances
Chart	Data	1.5.4	Contribution of Remittances to Consumption Risk Sharing
Chart	Data	1.SF.1	Commodity Market Developments

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Chapter 2:Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economics: Drivers and Implications

Nominal wage growth in most advanced economies remains markedly lower than it was before the Great Recession of 2008–09. This chapter finds that the bulk of the wage slowdown can be explained by labor market slack, inflation expectations, and trend productivity growth. While involuntary part-time employment may have helped support labor force participation and facilitated stronger engagement with the workplace, it also appears to have weakened wage growth. This is the case even in economies where measured slack appears low.

Full Text of Chapter 2 Blog

Table of Contents and Data

Introduction
Wage Determination––A Primer
Advanced Economy Labor Markets: Surface Healing Masks Deeper Changes
Drivers of Recent Wage Dynamics
Summary and Policy Implications
Box 2.1. Labor Market Dynamics by Skill Level
Box 2.2. Worker Contracts and Nominal Wage Rigidities in Europe: Firm-Level Evidence
Box 2.3. Wage and Employment Adjustment after the Global Financial Crisis: Firm-Level Evidence
Annex 2.1. Country Coverage and Data
Annex 2.2. Empirical Methodologies
Annex 2.3. Empirical Results
References

Tables

Table 2.3.1. Precrisis Financial Vulnerabilities and Postcrisis Labor Adjustments
Annex Table 2.1.1. Country Coverage
Annex Table 2.1.2. Data Sources
Annex Table 2.2.1. Aggregate Forces and Sectoral Exposures
Annex Table 2.3.1. Estimates of Wage Phillips Curves
Annex Table 2.3.2. Estimates of Wage Phillips Curves with Alternative Measures
Annex Table 2.3.3. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share by Country Group
Annex Table 2.3.4. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share: Full Sample and Countries with Unemployment Rate Lower than 2000–07 Average
Annex Table 2.3.5. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share: Countries with Unemployment Rate Moderately Higher and Appreciably Higher than 2000–07 Average
Annex Table 2.3.6. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Temporary Contract Employment Share: Full Sample and Countries with Unemployment Rates Lower than 2000–07 Average
Annex Table 2.3.7. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Temporary Contract Employment Share: Countries with Unemployment Rates Moderately Higher and Appreciably Higher than 2000–07 Average
Annex Table 2.3.8. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Structural Variables
Annex Table 2.3.9. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Structural Variables: Excluding 2008 and 2009
Annex Table 2.3.10. Drivers of Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share, Aggregate Analysis
Annex Table 2.3.11. Drivers of Sectoral Nominal Wage Growth
Annex Table 2.3.12. Drivers of Sectoral Part-Time Employment Shares
Annex Table 2.3.13. Drivers of Nominal Wage Growth, Employment Growth and Part-Time Employment

Figures
Chart	Data	2.1	Distribution of Labor Market Indicators
Chart	Data	2.2	Distribution of Nominal Wage Growth and Correlation with Changes in the Unemployment Rate
Chart	Data	2.3	Job Attributes: Involuntary Part-Time Employment
Chart	Data	2.4	Job Attributes: Temporary Contracts
Chart	Data	2.5	Job Attributes: Hours per Worker
Chart	Data	2.6	Changes in Nominal Wage Growth, Actual versus Imputed Using 2008 Sectoral Employment Shares
Chart	Data	2.7	Changes in Labor Market Indicators, Actual versus Imputed Using 2008 Sectoral Employment Shares
Chart	Data	2.8	Job Attributes and Changes in Sectoral Employment Shares, 2008–16
Chart	Data	2.9	Effects on Growth of Compensation per Hour: Panel Estimation
Chart	Data	2.10	Effects on Growth of Compensation per Hour: Country-by-Country Estimation, Cross-Country Dispersion
Chart	Data	2.11	Effects of Involuntary Part-Time Employment on Growth of Compensation per Hour, 2000–16
Chart	Data	2.12	Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000–16
Chart	Data	2.13	Year Fixed Effects and Common Drivers, 2000–16
Chart	Data	2.14	Changes in Growth Expectations and Labor Market Institutions
Chart	Data	2.15	Long-Term Drivers of Labor Market Dynamics
Chart	Data	2.16	Effects on Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share, Aggregate Analysis
Chart	Data	2.1.1	Evolution of Skill Premiums in the United States
Chart	Data	2.1.2	Skill Premiums and Changes in Skill Premiums in European Economies
Chart	Data	2.1.3	Nominal Wage Growth by Sector and Skill Group
Chart	Data	2.1.4	Employment Shares by Skill
Chart	Data	2.1.5	Employment Shares by Skill and Changes in Hours per Worker
Chart	Data	2.2.1	Changes in Employment Shares
Chart	Data	2.2.2	Changes in Employment Shares, 2007–14
Chart	Data	2.2.3	Wage Cuts and Freezes, 2014
Chart	Data	2.3.1	Estimated Nominal Wage Growth and Employment Growth Differences based on Uncertainty and Growth Expectations
Chart	Data	2.3.2	Wage and Employment Growth by Debt Maturity in 2008
Chart	Data	Annex 2.2.1	Distribution of Real Compensation Growth Measures
Chart	Data	Annex 2.2.2	Growth of Real Compensation per Hour and Unemployment Rates
Chart	Data	Annnex	2.2.3. Factors Associated with Nominal Wage Growth
Chart	Data	Annex 2.2.4	Effects of Involuntary Part-Time Employment on Compensation and Wages, 2000–16
Chart	Data	Annex 2.2.5	Correlations between Aggregate Wage Growth and Two-Quarter-Lagged Public Wage Growth
Chart	Data	Annex 2.3.1	Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000–16
Chart	Data	Annex 2.3.2	Decomposition of Sectoral Wage Dynamics, 2000–15
Chart	Data	Annex 2.3.3	Effects on Part-Time Employment Share, Sectoral Analysis

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Chapter 3:The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: How Can Low-Income Countries Cope?

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace over the past 40 years, and significant further warming could occur, depending on our ability to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term. Sound domestic policies and development alongside investment in adaptation strategies could help to some extent, but given the constraints faced by low-income countries, the international community must play a key role in supporting these countries’ efforts to cope with climate change.

Full Text of Chapter 3 Blog

Table of Contents and Data

Introduction
Temperature and Precipitation: Historical Patterns and Projections
The Macroeconomic Impact of Weather Shocks
Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change
Long-Term Effects of Temperature Increase—A Model-Based Approach
Summary and Policy Implications
Box 3.1. The Growth Impact of Tropical Cyclones
Box 3.2. The Role of Policies in Coping with Weather Shocks: A Model-Based Analysis
Box 3.3. Strategies for Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: Selected Case Studies
Box 3.4. Coping with Weather Shocks: The Role of Financial Markets
Box 3.5. Historical Climate, Economic Development, and World Income Distribution
Box 3.6. Mitigating Climate Change
Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings
Annex 3.2. Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters
Annex 3.3. Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Weather Shocks and the Role of Policies
Annex 3.4. The Impact of Weather Changes and Natural Disasters on International Migration
Annex 3.5. Model-Based Analysis
Annex 3.6. Reduced Form Approach to Estimating Potential Long-Term Effects of Climate Change
References

Tables

Table 3.1.1. Characteristics of the Average Tropical Cyclone by Country Group
Table 3.1.2. Effect of Weather and Wind Shocks on Economic Activity
Table 3.5.1. Effect of Historical Climate on Current Real Output
Annex Table 3.1.1. Data Sources
Annex Table 3.1.2. Country and Territory Groups
Annex Table 3.2.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Natural Disasters, 1990-2014
Annex Table 3.3.1. Effect of Weather Shocks on Output
Annex Table 3.3.2. Effect of Weather Shocks on Sectoral Output
Annex Table 3.3.3. Effect of Weather Shocks on Productivity, Capital, and Labor
Annex Table 3.3.4. Role of Policy Buffers
Annex Table 3.3.5. Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
Annex Table 3.3.6. Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
Annex Table 3.4.1. Effect of Weather Shocks and Natural Disasters on Emigration, 1980-2015
Annex Table 3.5.1. Parameterization of the Debt, Investment, and Growth Model

Figures
Chart	Data	3.1	Average Global Temperature
Chart	Data	3.2	Increase in Average Global Temperature and Contributions of Key Factors
Chart	Data	3.3	Temperature and Precipitation across Broad Country Groups
Chart	Data	3.4	Annual CO2 Emissions across Broad Country Groups
Chart	--	3.5	Temperature and Precipitation Projections under the RCP 8.5 Scenario
Chart	Data	3.6	Natural Disasters: Historical and Projected Monthly Probability of Occurrence
Chart	Data	3.7	Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output
Chart	Data	3.8	Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe
Chart	Data	3.9	Effect of Temperature Increase on Sectoral Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country
Chart	Data	3.10	Effect of Temperature Increase on Productivity, Capital, and Labor Input Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country
Chart	Data	3.11	Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output Estimated at the Temperature of the Median Low-Income Developing Country over Time
Chart	--	3.12	Coping with Weather Shocks and Climate Change: A Toolkit
Chart	Data	3.13	The Role of Policy Buffers
Chart	Data	3.14	The Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
Chart	Data	3.15	The Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
Chart	Data	3.16	Effect of Temperature and Natural Disasters on International Migration
Chart	Data	3.17	Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase for a Representative Low-Income Developing Country: Model Simulations
Chart	Data	3.18	Vulnerability to Temperature Increase and Adaptation Prospects
Chart	Data	3.1.1	Effect of Tropical Cyclone Exposure on Real GDP per Capita
Chart	Data	3.1.2	Cumulative Effect of Average Tropical Cyclone on Real GDP per Capita after Seven Years
Chart	Data	3.2.1	The Role of Policies: A Model-Based Analysis
Chart	Data	3.4.1	Insurance Penetration: Non-Life Insurance Premium
Chart	Data	3.4.2	Catastrophe Bond Market
Chart	Data	3.4.3	Temperature Shocks and Stock Price Predictability: Food and Beverages Sector
Chart	Data	3.6.1	Effectiveness of Mitigation Policies in China
Chart	Data	Annex 3.3.1	Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe, with Countries Rescaled in Proportion to Their Projected Population as of 2100
Chart	--	Annex 3.6.1	The Long-Term Impact of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe

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Chapter 4:Cross-Border Impacts of Fiscal Policy: Still Relevant?

Positive cross-country spillovers from collective fiscal action by the world’s largest economies helped speed the recovery from the global financial crisis nearly a decade ago. But fiscal spillovers still matter today and depend on circumstances in both the countries that generate and receive fiscal shocks. This chapter’s new research shows that fiscal spillovers tend to be low when a shock originates from a country without output gaps. But the impact intensifies when a source or recipient country is in recession and/or benefiting from accommodative monetary policy, suggesting that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large.

Full Text of Chapter 4 Blog

Table of Contents and Data

Introduction
Spillovers from Fiscal Policy—A Conceptual Framework
Spillovers on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence
The Transmission of Fiscal Shocks—Model-Based Analysis
Fiscal Reforms
Conclusions
Box 4.1. The Spillover Impact of US Government Spending Shocks on External Positions
Annex 4.1. Data
Annex 4.2. Empirical Strategy
Annex 4.3. Robustness Tests
References

Tables

Annex Table 4.1.1. Data Sources for Quarterly Fiscal Data by Source Country
Annex Table 4.1.2. Data Sources for Recipient Countries
Annex Table 4.1.3. Recipient Countries in Sample

Figures
Chart	Data	4.1	Output Gap in Selected Countries
Chart	--	4.2	The Transmission of a Fiscal Shock
Chart	Data	4.3	Tracking Tax Shocks in the United States
Chart	Data	4.4	Dynamic Responses of Recipient Countries’ Output to Fiscal Shocks
Chart	Data	4.5	Spillovers of Fiscal Shocks on Recipient Countries’ Output
Chart	Data	4.6	Dynamic Responses of Components of Recipient Countries’ Output to a Fiscal Shock
Chart	Data	4.7	Spillovers under Various Economic and Policy Conditions
Chart	Data	4.8	Dynamic Responses of Components of Recipient Countries’ Output under Normal Times and Effective Lower Bound in Recipient Countries
Chart	Data	4.9	Dynamic Responses of Recipient Countries’ Output to US Spending Shock under Various Exchange Rate Regimes
Chart	Data	4.10	Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Global GDP Based on Various Instruments
Chart	Data	4.11	Spillovers from US Fiscal Shocks with and without Monetary Accommodation
Chart	Data	4.12	Regional GDP Impact of Government Spending Shocks from the United States, Europe, and China
Chart	Data	4.13	Dynamic Responses to a US Government Spending Shock
Chart	Data	4.14	Spillovers from US Spending Shock with and without a US Term-Premium Increase
Chart	Data	4.15	Spillovers from Corporate Income Tax Reduction Financed by an Offsetting Increase in Value-Added Tax
Chart	Data	4.16	Spillovers from Increase in Government Investment in Five Major Economies
Chart	Data	4.1.1	Response of Recipient Countries’ Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate vis-à-vis US Dollar
Chart	Data	Annex 4.3.1	Effects of Spending and Tax Shock on Recipient Countries’ Output: Comparison with Panel Vector Autoregression
Chart	Data	Annex 4.3.2	Effects of Spending and Tax Shock on Recipient Countries’ Output: Forecast Errors
Chart	Data	Annex 4.3.3	Effects of US Tax Shock on Recipient Countries’ Output: Comparison with US Narrative Tax Shock, 1995–2007

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Statistical Appendix

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Open Table of Content for Statistical Appendix

Assumptions
What’s New
Data and Conventions
Country Notes
Classification of Countries
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2017
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup
Table C. European Union
Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries
Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods
Table G. Key Data Documentation
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies

List of Tables - Part A (Download PDF)

Output (Tables A1–A4)
Inflation (Tables A5–A7)
Financial Policies (Table A8)
Foreign Trade (Table A9)
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12)
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13)
Flow of Funds (Table A14)
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15)

List of Tables Part B (Download PDF Online only)

Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita
Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators
Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes
Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance
Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services
Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods
Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions
Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity
Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity
Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

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World Economic Outlook

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World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook, October 2017<br>Seeking Sustainable Growth:<br> <small>Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges</small>

Introduction

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Chapter 1:Global Prospects and Policies

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Chapter 2:Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economics: Drivers and Implications

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Chapter 3:The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: How Can Low-Income Countries Cope?

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Chapter 4:Cross-Border Impacts of Fiscal Policy: Still Relevant?

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Statistical Appendix

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Related Videos

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IMF’s Work

RESOURCES

TOPICS

Flagship Publications

Other Publications

IMF reports and publications by country

Regional Offices

All News

See Also

For Journalists

Press Center

RESOURCES

FLAGSHIPS

KEY SERIES

IMF NOTES

Blog

Data Tools

Publications