COVID-19

In August 2024, the IMF's CCAMTAC conducted a scoping mission at the request of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to enhance the forecasting capabilities of the Monetary Analysis Division. The mission evaluated the Division's current resources, tools, and data management practices, identifying strengths such as experienced senior staff and adequate IT resources, while noting areas for improvement, including the need for additional training and more consistent forecasting methods. The project aims to develop a robust near-term forecasting system, integrating it into the National Bank's broader policy analysis framework, with execution planned for FY2026. Key risks include staff turnover and resource constraints, with mitigation strategies proposed to ensure success.

This paper examines the uptake of AI in securities markets and recent approaches to its regulation and supervision, complementing work by IMF and standard setters’ initiatives. It highlights the adoption of AI across financial services, the growing use of GenAI, and the associated risks, including data, performance, new cybersecurity threats, and broader financial stability risks. While AI offers benefits, its adoption warrants caution given the potential for material risks that could undermine financial sector’s reputation and soundness. The paper highlights how authorities are responding, providing a stocktake of regulatory and supervisory developments. While the paper compares advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), it highlights the significant heterogeneity within EMDEs, in terms of technology adoption and capacity. Finally, the paper summarizes key take-aways and identifies practices that authorities could consider adopting as part of their supervisory frameworks.

This report estimates Sweden’s Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for 2016–2023. Using a bottom-up approach based on operational audits and comparisons with random audits. The average CIT gap is about 2.2% of potential CIT.

The Republic of Palau faces significant climate change challenges that threaten its environment, economy, and fiscal sustainability. This technical assistance report assesses Palau’s public financial management (PFM) and public investment management (PIM) systems through the lens of climate sensitivity, using the IMF’s Green Public Financial Management Framework. While Palau has initiated several green PFM reforms—such as the Climate Resilience Fund—critical gaps remain in integrating climate considerations into fiscal strategy, budget processes, investment planning, and asset management. The report recommends a selective, capacity-sensitive approach to mainstream climate change into Palau’s PFM cycle, emphasizing medium-term fiscal strategy, fiscal risk management, budget preparation, climate tagging, and climate-aware asset management. Strengthening institutional coordination and capacity is essential for successful implementation of these reforms.