World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
World Economic Outlook, October 2019
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 15, 2019
Global outlook and growth projections
- Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
- Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April).
- The projected 2020 pickup primarily reflects a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.
- The outlook remains precarious given:
- uncertainty about prospects for several emerging market and strained economies;
- a projected slowdown in China and the United States;
- prominent downside risks that could produce a much more subdued pace of global activity.
Manufacturing, trade, and financial conditions
- Momentum in manufacturing activity has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.
- Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally.
- These tensions have taken a toll on:
- business confidence;
- investment decisions;
- global trade.
- A notable shift toward increased monetary policy accommodation—through both action and communication—has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity.
- A generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth despite weakness elsewhere.
Policy recommendations and priorities
- To forestall a significantly more subdued global outcome, policies should decisively aim at:
- defusing trade tensions;
- reinvigorating multilateral cooperation;
- providing timely support to economic activity where needed.
- To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term.
- Making growth more inclusive should remain an overarching goal to secure better economic prospects for all.
World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
Content in this bundle
- Chapter 1
- Chapter 1 Annex
- Chapter 2
- Chapter 2 Annex
- Chapter 3
- Chapter 3 Annex
- Dataset overview
- WEO Chapter 3 Oct. 2019
- Executive Summary
- Foreword
- statapp
- Table a
- Table b
- Full Report
