Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Author/Editor:

Chikako Oka

Publication Date:

January 1, 2003

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

Series:

Working Paper No. 03/18

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

January 1, 2003

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451843668/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0182003

Format:

Paper

Pages:

35

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