Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2023
August 11, 2023
Unlocking Tourism Potential for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Dominica
Description: Tourism is an important driver of Dominica’s economy. The damage of the pandemic on Dominica’s tourism sector was severer than in most regional peers, and the recovery has also been much slower, mostly due to the timing of lockdown restrictions. This paper reviews the tourism sector landscape in Dominica, assesses its recent performance relative to peers, and analyzes the main determinants and constraints for tourism development. Our econometric analysis shows that flight connectivity and demand variables play the most significant role in explaining tourism developments, while natural disasters can have negative lasting significant impacts. This calls for improving infrastructure and enhancing resilience.
July 24, 2023
Impact of High Energy Prices on Germany’s Potential Output
Description: The surge in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced the energy-intensive sector’s production in Germany, although the non-energy intensive sector’s production has held up thanks in part to firms’ efforts to improve energy efficiency. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated in the foreseeable future, compared to pre-war levels, adversely affecting firms’ productivity and thus lowering Germany’s potential output. Economic modeling suggests that this effect could be around 1¼ percent of GDP in staff’s baseline, with some uncertainty around this estimate, depending on the ultimate magnitude of the energy price shock and the degree to which increased energy efficiency can mitigate it. Policies can promote effective adjustment to the shock by increasing productivity and maintaining strong price incentives to conserve energy and invest in renewable energy production.
July 24, 2023
Borrower-Based Macroprudential Instruments in Germany
Description: Germany’s macroprudential policy toolkit is well-developed, but its key missing piece is a set of instruments related to a borrower’s income. In addition, existing powers to adopt LTV limits have not yet been deployed. Against this background, this paper advances the discussion of borrower-based macroprudential policy in Germany by explaining how borrower-based measures could strengthen financial stability, macroeconomic stability, and consumer protection; explaining how potential concerns about these instruments could be addressed; offering approaches to initial calibrations of instruments for further analysis; and hinting at their likely effects based on other countries’ experiences. The paper also uses a microsimulation model to show that activating borrower-based measures could provide as much capital to the banking system as the capital buffer requirements that were activated in 2022.
July 19, 2023
Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark
Description: Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation. The analysis suggests that wage formation in Denmark has historically been partly backward-looking, and economic slack also has played a role. Given these, high inflation realized thus far and the tightness in the labor market implies that wage pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Some of these wage pressures, in turn, are expected to be passed on to core inflation, sustaining high inflation. Thus, determined policies to fight inflation are important.
July 19, 2023
Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali
Description: Mali is extremely vulnerable to climate change and the country is already facing acute climate-related challenges from higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. The impact of climate change has also contributed to a rise in food insecurity, with almost a quarter of the population expected to be either facing food insecurity or at risk of doing so by mid-2023. That is already having a hugely damaging effect on Mali’s economy and action is needed without delay to avoid a further increase in food insecurity.
July 19, 2023
Public Sector Wage Bill in Mali
Description: Mali’s wage bill has soared to levels not seen since the early 1990s. This may cause considerable opportunity costs—limiting fiscal space and potentially adding to inflationary pressures—as well as adversely affect medium-term debt sustainability as it weighs heavily on the primary deficit. This SIP investigates the extent and drivers of the recent wage increases and their fiscal and economic consequences. It concludes that across-the board salary freezes may help wage growth moderation in the short term but are politically difficult to implement. Structural reforms to strengthen wage bill management are critical to preserving medium-term fiscal sustainability.
July 19, 2023
Fragility, Demographics, Gender Inequality: Mali
Description: Mali has many characteristics of a fragile and conflict-affected state. Like many other fragile states, Mali has high population growth, which puts pressure on the country’s resources, including food supplies. Gender inequality in the country is also high, with women and girls experiencing disadvantages in many aspects of life. These challenges are closely related, so coordinated reforms are required to break the vicious cycle which has left Mali trapped in a state of fragility since 2012.
July 19, 2023
Governance Diagnostics: Mali
Description: This SIP provides an overview of the governance diagnostic mission conducted in early 2021 by experts from the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs and Legal Departments, along three main pillars - the rule of law, tax and customs administration, and public financial management. The SIP assesses progress made, identifies key weaknesses, and a list of measures to guide immediate and future reforms.
July 19, 2023
Cancellation of Public Holiday in Denmark
Description: Denmark cancelled a public holiday to increase labor supply, GDP, and fiscal revenues. This chapter discusses the expected labor supply impact of this change and compares it to alternative options for increasing labor supply.
July 19, 2023
The Importance and Drivers of Stock-Flow Adjustments in Mali
Description: Stock-flow adjustments—extra-budgetary and below-the-line operations that do not reflect standard spending and revenue—have added 9 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio in Mali over the past decade. That is just under a third of the total increase in public debt over that period. Despite their importance, there is little understanding of the causes of stock-flow adjustments. A number of actions could be taken to either reduce the occurrence of stock-flow adjustments or to increase transparency and monitoring which would assist fiscal policy decision-making.