Selected Issues Papers

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Selected Issues Papers

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• Drivers and Sustainability of Credit Growth in Paraguay
  • Published: September 18, 2026
  • Series: Selected Issues Papers
  • Authors: Maximiliano Appendino; Pablo Alonso; Emanuel Kopp
  • Summary: Paraguay’s financial system is bank dominated and currently liquid, profitable, and well capitalized. Credit growth has been strong in recent years—outpacing regional peers—in the context of robust economic activity.
• From Informality to Formalization: The Role of Fiscal and Structural Policies in Paraguay
  • Published: September 18, 2026
  • Series: Selected Issues Papers
  • Authors: Lisa L Kolovich; Duncan MacDonald; Vivian Malta
  • Summary: Despite recent improvements, Paraguay’s high labor informality constrains productivity, revenue mobilization, and inclusive growth. This paper examines the drivers of informality and evaluates policy options to strengthen formalization using two complementary approaches.
• AI and New Zealand’s Productivity Challenge: Exposure, Adoption, and Policy Priorities
  • Published: September 17, 2026
  • Series: Selected Issues Papers
  • Authors: Marina Mendes Tavares
  • Summary: Artificial intelligence (AI) could help address New Zealand’s long-standing productivity challenge, but the size of the gains is uncertain and depends on structural conditions.
• Anchoring Fiscal Policy in Angola: Strategies for Stability and Growth
  • Published: August 28, 2026
  • Summary: Angola faces a challenging trade-off between reducing debt vulnerabilities and meeting pressing development spending needs.
• Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Angola
  • Published: August 28, 2026
  • Summary: This paper aims to analyze the determinants of sovereign spreads for Angola and investigate the potential bias against the country.
• Taking Stock of Key Fiscal Structural Reforms: Angola
  • Published: August 28, 2026
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper takes stock of fiscal reforms in fuel subsidies, public investment management and domestic revenue mobilization and draw lessons from the experience of Angola as well as other countries to explore how best those reforms can contribute to creating fiscal space going forward
• U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers on Guatemala and the Role of International Reserves
  • Published: August 19, 2026
  • Summary: This paper studies the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to domestic monetary policy in CAPDR countries and the role of international reserves, with a focus on Guatemala. First, using Taylor-rule estimates, the paper documents that the co-movement between U.S.
• Ghana: Financial Sector Resilience to a Severe Gold Price Shock
  • Published: August 10, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses the resilience of Ghana's banking system and the Bank of Ghana to severe and persistent gold price shocks.
• Ghana's Energy Sector: From Fiscal Vulnerability to a Platform for Sustained Growth
  • Published: August 7, 2026
  • Summary: Ghana's energy sector is central to industrialization and inclusive growth, but persistent tariff, distribution, and collection gaps have made it a source of fiscal risk.
• Lessons from the Bank of Ghana's Domestic Gold Purchase Programme
  • Published: August 7, 2026
  • Summary: This paper examines the legacy of the Bank of Ghana's Domestic Gold Purchase Programme, which helped formalize artisanal gold exports, rebuild reserves, and support foreign exchange market stabilization during Ghana's debt crisis.
• Sustaining High-Tech Leadership in a Fragmenting World
  • Published: August 7, 2026
  • Summary: The high-tech sector in the Netherlands is an important source of growth, supported by innovation-driven ecosystems, globally competitive firms, and deep integration into global value chains (GVCs).
• Diagnosing Iceland’s Productivity Slowdown: Firm-Level Evidence
  • Published: August 6, 2026
  • Summary: Iceland maintains one of the highest levels of GDP per capita among advanced economies despite a marked slowdown in productivity growth over the past decade.
• Inflation Dynamics and Key Drivers of Inflation: Iceland
  • Published: August 6, 2026
  • Summary: Inflation in Iceland has remained persistently above target despite repeated tightening cycles, pointing to structural features that amplify and prolong price shocks.
• Demographic Headwinds: The Growth Impacts of Population Ageing in Mauritius
  • Published: August 5, 2026
  • Summary: Mauritius faces severe demographic pressures from population ageing, low fertility, and out-migration. Using a growth decomposition framework, this paper finds that demographic factors shifted from supporting growth to weighing on it around 2017 and could reduce annual GDP growth by about 2 percenta
• Modernizing Monetary Policy in Mauritius: Implementation, Analytics, and Communication at the Bank of Mauritius
  • Published: August 5, 2026
  • Summary: Since the adoption of an explicit inflation-targeting regime in 2023, Mauritius has made notable progress in modernizing its monetary policy framework.
• Labor Market Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Sweden
  • Published: August 4, 2026
  • Summary: The rapid uptake of Artificial Intelligence by Swedish enterprises is poised to reshape the country’s occupational landscape.
• Non-Financial Corporate Vulnerabilities and Bank Linkages in Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Published: August 4, 2026
  • Summary: This paper examines vulnerabilities in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector and their implications for banking sector capital adequacy.
• Spatial Misallocation and Labor Productivity: Sweden
  • Published: August 4, 2026
  • Summary: Reviving productivity could strengthen Sweden’s resilience to global shocks while helping accommodate new public spending priorities.
• The Impact of the EU CBAM and Carbon Pricing in Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Published: August 4, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Bosnia and Herzegovina and examines policy options to mitigate its effects.
• Drivers of Private Consumption in Singapore
  • Published: July 31, 2026
  • Summary: Private consumption ratios differ markedly across advanced economies, with Singapore recording one of the lowest of its peer group.
• Labor Taxation in the United Kingdom
  • Published: July 30, 2026
  • Summary: This paper uses a microsimulation model to assess the revenue potential, labor-supply and distributional effects of alternative labor tax reforms.
• Unlocking AI-Led Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom
  • Published: July 30, 2026
  • Summary: AI offers a significant opportunity to lift the UK's lackluster productivity growth. The UK is well positioned, given its concentration in high-skill, knowledge-intensive services where AI shows the greatest potential.
• Why Have UK Gilt Yields Moved Ahead of G7 Peers?
  • Published: July 30, 2026
  • Summary: Since 2022, UK gilt yields, especially at long maturities, have risen above G7 peers, increasing borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions.
• External Sector Dynamics and Firms’ Competitiveness in Greece
  • Published: July 27, 2026
  • Summary: Greece’s external sector has undergone significant transformation over the past decades. Pre-crisis imbalances—including large fiscal deficits, household overinvestment, and elevated labor costs—have largely been corrected.
• Inside Greece’s Housing Affordability Paradoxes
  • Published: July 27, 2026
  • Summary: Housing affordability is a key challenge in Greece despite high homeownership rates and a relatively large housing stock. This paper investigates the drivers of this apparent paradox using regional housing market data and household-level EU-SILC microdata.
• Estimating the Impacts of AI, Trade Policy, and the Energy Transition: An Application to Ireland
  • Published: July 24, 2026
  • Summary: Developments in trade policy, AI, and the energy transition are shaping small open economies. This paper uses a static, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to assess the impacts of these forces on Ireland in the long run through three channels: (i) current tariffs and tra
• Climate Change, Macroeconomic Risks, and Adaptation in the Solomon Islands
  • Published: July 22, 2026
  • Summary: The Solomon Islands faces growing macroeconomic challenges from climate change. Rising temperatures, changing marine ecosystems, and sea-level rise are expected to affect economic growth, public finances, and key export sectors over the coming decades.
• Strengthening Domestic Revenue Mobilization in The Gambia
  • Published: July 22, 2026
  • Summary: Elevated development financing needs, persistent debt service pressures, and increased uncertainty regarding external grants have heightened the urgency of strengthening domestic revenue mobilization in The Gambia.
• Understanding Economic Growth in The Gambia: Challenges and Policy Implications
  • Published: July 21, 2026
  • Summary: This paper highlights past, current and future drivers of The Gambia’s growth and suggests reforms to enhance growth potential and productivity. The Gambia needs to accelerate structural reforms to boost total factor productivity (TFP).
• Health Spending Efficiency in Portugal: Drivers, Challenges and Reform Priorities
  • Published: July 17, 2026
  • Summary: Portugal’s health system is facing increasing spending pressures driven by population aging, constraints in the availability and deployment of health workers, and rising input costs, while access bottlenecks persist.
• Portugal’s Productivity Gap vis-à-vis Europe and the United States: A Firm-Level Analysis
  • Published: July 17, 2026
  • Summary: Portugal’s large GDP-per-capita gap with the highest-income euro area economies and the US is primarily driven by a productivity shortfall.
• Beyond the Policy Rate: A Broader View of Monetary and Financial Conditions, Kyrgyz Republic
  • Published: July 16, 2026
  • Summary: This study assesses the effective monetary stance in the Kyrgyz Republic amid excess liquidity, rapid household credit growth, and elevated inflation pressures.
• Informal Economy in the Kyrgyz Republic
  • Published: July 16, 2026
  • Summary: Informality remains a major structural challenge in the Kyrgyz Republic, constraining productivity, inclusive growth, revenue mobilization, and social protection.
• The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Israel’s Labor Market
  • Published: July 13, 2026
  • Summary: Artificial intelligence (AI)-particularly Generative AI -has the potential to raise productivity but could reshape workplaces across sectors.
• Analyzing Social Spending in Namibia
  • Published: July 10, 2026
  • Summary: This paper analyzes social spending in Namibia across education, health, and social protection. It assesses spending adequacy relative to development needs and examines whether resources are effectively translated into social outcomes.
• Policy Transmission Through Banking: Evidence from Namibia
  • Published: July 10, 2026
  • Summary: This paper estimates the strength of monetary policy transmission to bank lending and deposit rates in Namibia under a pegged exchange rate regime. Using local projections, it quantifies the pass-through of domestic and South African policy rates to aggregate banking interest rates.
• Enhancing Social Protection in Kiribati
  • Published: July 7, 2026
  • Summary: Kiribati expanded social protection spending in response to COVID, drastically reducing poverty. Concurrently, an increase in untargeted social protection receipts has supported spending on goods that do not enhance human development and may have negative externalities.
• State Owned Enterprises in Uzbekistan: Issues and Reform Options
  • Published: July 7, 2026
  • Summary: This paper provides an overview of the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Uzbekistan, examining their economic footprint, financial performance, and reform trajectory.
• Firm-Level Innovation in Spain: Patterns, Drivers and Policy Implications
  • Published: June 26, 2026
  • Summary: While Spain’s productivity growth has picked up in recent years, a sizable gap with other high-income countries remains. One contributing factor is a large innovation gap vis-à-vis peer countries.
• The Case for Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures in Spain
  • Published: June 26, 2026
  • Summary: House prices in Spain have risen rapidly since the pandemic, and the share of riskier mortgages at issuance has increased, suggesting a potential buildup of mortgage-related vulnerabilities.
• The Fiscal Policy of Autonomous Communities: Its Macroeconomic Effects and the Role of the National Fiscal Rule
  • Published: June 26, 2026
  • Summary: The transposition of the EU economic governance framework to national legislation provides an opportunity to reform the subnational fiscal rule, especially with regard to its regional component.
• Monetary Operations and Liquidity Dynamics in Fiji
  • Published: June 23, 2026
  • Summary: This paper examines the implementation of monetary policy in Fiji, with a focus on liquidity dynamics and their implications for monetary transmission.
• Potential Output and High-Income Convergence in Fiji
  • Published: June 23, 2026
  • Summary: This paper examines Fiji’s potential output growth using a production-function approach and analyzes income convergence toward high-income status. Potential growth is estimated at around 3.4 percent over the medium term, with capital accumulation and productivity as the main drivers.
• Labor Market Implications of Skill Mismatches and Non-Labor Income in Georgia
  • Published: June 22, 2026
  • Summary: Unemployment in Georgia remains structurally high, reflecting persistent skill mismatches and weak work incentives amid low wages and widespread reliance on remittances and social transfers.
• Reserve Adequacy in Georgia: How Much is Enough?
  • Published: June 22, 2026
  • Summary: This paper extends the Jeanne-Ranciѐre (2011) framework to assess Georgia’s optimal level of international reserves by incorporating three additional channels particularly relevant to its economy: (i) sovereign risk and borrowing costs; (ii) private-sector dollarization; and (iii) foreign exchange v
• Tax Potential in North Macedonia
  • Published: June 22, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses North Macedonia’s tax potential and reform options to support fiscal consolidation and create space for rising long-term spending pressures.
• Unleashing Potential: Structural Reforms for Boosting Long-Term Growth
  • Published: June 22, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses North Macedonia’s long-term growth prospects and the potential output gains from structural reforms. Potential growth is estimated at 2.6–2.
• Diagnosis of Decreasing Labor Force Participation in Hong Kong SAR
  • Published: June 17, 2026
  • Summary: Hong Kong SAR is facing a sustained decline in labor force participation rate (LFPR), which accelerated in recent years, driven mainly by population aging and further exacerbated by a drop in participation among youth.
• Hong Kong SAR: Diversifying and Broadening Revenue
  • Published: June 17, 2026
  • Summary: Hong Kong SAR has faced persistent fiscal pressures amid declining fiscal revenue associated with changes in land use (land premiums), reduced stock market initial public offerings, headwinds to corporate profits, and weakness in the labor market.
• Inflation in Nigeria: A Descriptive Analysis of Recent Developments
  • Published: June 17, 2026
  • Summary: As a result of recent reforms, inflation persistence in Nigeria has declined and the economy's responsiveness to monetary policy actions is improving.
• Nigeria’s Shift to a Floating Regime: Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Policy Effectiveness
  • Published: June 17, 2026
  • Summary: In June 2023, Nigeria transitioned from a multi-window, managed exchange rate system to a floating regime. This paper examines how the regime change altered the interest rate and exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using econometrics cointegration methods and a Bayesian VAR estimated over 2007–2025.
• Resilience Through Inclusion: Women and Data-Driven Climate Policies in Rwanda
  • Published: June 11, 2026
  • Summary: Climate shocks represent a recurrent macroeconomic risk for Rwanda, affecting growth, fiscal stability, and household welfare. Gender inclusion is macro-critical to Rwanda’s growth and resilience strategy, shaping the effectiveness of adaptation and fiscal policy responses.
• Unlocking Rwanda’s Export Potential: Removing Structural Bottlenecks
  • Published: June 11, 2026
  • Summary: Rwanda’s export base remains narrow and concentrated, limiting diversification and contributing to persistent external imbalances.
• High-Frequency Indicators and GDP Nowcasting in Andorra
  • Published: May 15, 2026
  • Summary: High-frequency signals for Andorra were combined into a timely real-time estimate of quarterly GDP growth using a mixed-frequency nowcasting model. The resulting framework delivers a transparent, nowcast of quarterly GDP growth together with uncertainty bands.
• The Analysis of the Healthcare System in Andorra from a Fiscal Perspective
  • Published: May 15, 2026
  • Summary: Andorra has a solid health system, delivering strong outcomes with lower public spending than the average in EU countries. However, health spending increased significantly between 2014 and 2025 and will remain a key source of pressure over the medium and long-term as the population continues to age.
• Labor Productivity in Slovenia: What is the Role of Intangible Investments?
  • Published: April 24, 2026
  • Summary: Slovenia’s labor productivity growth has slowed since the late 2000s, weakening the country’s prospects of catching up with more advanced EU members.
• Slovenia: Financial Challenges in the Health Sector
  • Published: April 24, 2026
  • Summary: Healthcare and long-term care expenditures are projected to rise significantly in Slovenia over the medium and long term, primarily due to rapid population aging.
• Housing Affordability in the Czech Republic: Drivers, Dynamics, and Policy Option
  • Published: April 23, 2026
  • Summary: Worsening housing affordability in the Czech Republic reflects a structural imbalance between supply and demand, where income-driven demand has persistently outpaced construction capacity constrained by slow permitting processes and municipal fragmentation.
• Monetary and Fiscal Policy Linkages in the Czech Republic
  • Published: April 23, 2026
  • Summary: This paper uses scenario analysis to illustrate the implications of persistently higher fiscal deficits for monetary policy in the Czech Republic. It distinguishes across different types of fiscal spending and monetary policy responses.
• Scenario Analysis for the Czech Republic: Using the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF)
  • Published: April 23, 2026
  • Summary: This paper applies the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) to the Czech Republic with the aim of contributing to the use of scenario analysis at the Czech National Bank (CNB). The paper identifies some shallowness of FX markets as the main relevant friction under the IPF.
• Long-Term Spending Pressures in Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 21, 2026
  • Summary: Liechtenstein faces long-term fiscal pressures from population aging, climate transition, and enhanced security requirements.
• Productivity Dynamics and Long-Run Growth: Principality of Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 21, 2026
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper analyzes productivity and long-run growth in Liechtenstein. Despite among the highest labor productivity levels in Europe, growth has been weak over an extended period, leading to declining relative performance.
• Unpacking the Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on ASEAN Economics
  • Published: April 20, 2026
  • Summary: Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has reached record highs in recent years. This paper builds granular TPU measures for several ASEAN economies that distinguish between protectionist and trade agreement-based uncertainty, as well as differences between ‘own’-country TPU shocks and third-party TPU shock
• Strengthening Domestic Revenue Mobilization for Fiscal Resilience in Cameroon
  • Published: April 17, 2026
  • Summary: Cameroon is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and strengthening resilience is macro-critical. The government faces significant challenges, including weak infrastructure, insufficient protection against floods, and lack of financial resources.
• Unlocking Growth in Cameroon: Easing Financial Sector Constraints and Closing Infrastructure Gaps
  • Published: April 17, 2026
  • Summary: Cameroon’s growth has been consistently below expectations and reflects structural constraints that limit private-sector development, including a shallow financial system, sizeable infrastructure gaps, and weak public investment efficiency.
• Efficient Public Spending: Pathways for Fiscal Sustainability
  • Published: April 8, 2026
  • Summary: Slovakia’s fiscal position has weakened considerably over the past 15 years, with public debt and expenditure rising faster than in peer countries. Given limited scope for additional revenue-based consolidation, policy efforts will increasingly need to focus on the expenditure side.
• Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in Morocco
  • Published: April 6, 2026
  • Summary: This paper studies Morocco’s public infrastructure investment scale-up in 2024–2030, amounting to around 12 percent of 2024 GDP. Empirical evidence shows that improvements in infrastructure quantity and quality have contributed importantly to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades.
• Public Spending Efficiency in the Health and Education Sectors in Morocco
  • Published: April 6, 2026
  • Summary: Health and education outcomes in Morocco have improved and access has expanded significantly in recent years. Nonetheless, long-standing challenges persist—including shortages of medical personnel, weak learning outcomes, regional disparities, and outdated infrastructure.
• Moldova – Export Developments and Prospects
  • Published: April 1, 2026
  • Summary: The paper examines various metrics of Moldova’s export performance, including diversification, export relationships duration, export quality, and complexity.
• Moldova’s Inflation Targeting Regime
  • Published: April 1, 2026
  • Summary: This chapter reviews the evolution of Moldova’s inflation targeting (IT) regime since its introduction in 2013, focusing on the National Bank of Moldova’s (NBM) operational framework in a challenging macro-financial environment.
• Structural Reforms to Lift Growth: Lao People's Democratic Republic
  • Published: March 18, 2026
  • Summary: Against the backdrop of improved macroeconomic stability and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR)’s ambition to achieve upper-middle-income (UMI) status by 2035, this paper examines the impact of structural reforms on Lao PDR’s growth outcomes.
• Malta’s Growth-at-Risk: Exploring the Effects of Macro-Financial Factors on Growth
  • Published: March 13, 2026
  • Summary: This paper employs a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess the impact of macro-financial variables on the growth rate distribution of Malta over a one-to-two-year horizon.
• The Role of the Justice System in Debt Enforcement and Insolvency: Malta
  • Published: March 13, 2026
  • Summary: This paper examines how Malta’s justice system impacts the efficiency of debt enforcement and insolvency proceedings, with implications for credit allocation and business and investment environment.
• Interest Rate Pass-Through in Cabo Verde
  • Published: March 10, 2026
  • Summary: This paper estimates the interest rate pass-through in Cabo Verde. Using monthly data since 2001, we estimate a limited pass-through of monetary policy to banks’ lending rates: a 1-percentage-point policy rate change leads to a 0.19–0.28 increase in average lending rates and 0.13–0.
• Macro-Distributional Implications of VAT Reform Supporting Public Investment in Cabo Verde
  • Published: March 10, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses the macroeconomic and distributional effects of VAT reform to finance public investment in Cabo Verde. The analysis shows that VAT reform can strengthen fiscal space and support growth, but may be regressive without accompanying measures.
• Spatial Inequality in South Africa: Causes and Policy Option
  • Published: March 6, 2026
  • Summary: South Africa exhibits one of the highest levels of income inequality globally, reflecting persistent spatial exclusion. This paper examines the extent and causes of spatial inequality using household microdata, microsimulations, and a structural spatial general-equilibrium model.
• Structural Reforms to Bolster South Africa’s Business Environment
  • Published: March 6, 2026
  • Summary: South Africa stands out as having one of the most restrictive business environments among peers. Burdensome government regulations, especially for licensing and permitting, weak procurement practices, and limited competition can pose risks to business confidence and investment, stifle innovation, in
• Pension Reform in Comoros: Union of the Comoros
  • Published: March 4, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses the financial outlook of the pension system in Comoros based on recent actuarial analyses and examines reform options.
• Tax and Expenditure Policies in Comoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations
  • Published: March 4, 2026
  • Summary: This paper assesses the distributional impact of tax and expenditure policies in Comoros using a microsimulation framework based on the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology and household survey data.
• Growth Challenges and Policy Priorities in Mozambique
  • Published: February 27, 2026
  • Summary: Mozambique’s economy has slowed sharply since 2016 with two-thirds of the population below the poverty line. While over half a million young people enter the job market annually, job creation remains weak, as structural transformation has favored extractive industries (in particular, capital-intensi
• ASEAN’s Digital Payment Revolution: A New Frontier for Regional Integration, Thailand
  • Published: February 20, 2026
  • Summary: This study takes stock of recent developments on digital payments in Thailand and ASEAN more broadly, explores the drivers and the potential benefits, analyzes the factors underlying the frequency of digital payment usage, and discusses the relevant policy considerations.
• Reinvigorating Thailand’s Structural Transformation: Thailand
  • Published: February 20, 2026
  • Summary: This paper reviews Thailand’s progress in structural transformation and its recent slowdown. It examines the empirical drivers of structural transformation and quantifies their contributions, with the objective of informing policies to reinvigorate the process.
• Australia: Unpacking Labor Market Resilience
  • Published: February 19, 2026
  • Summary: Australia’s labor market has remained resilient despite slower growth, with strong employment gains and low unemployment but limited wage pressure. This paper argues that recent dynamics reflect both cyclical and structural forces.
• Modernizing Palau's Financial System: Opportunities and Risks
  • Published: February 16, 2026
  • Summary: Palau’s financial system faces structural challenges that inhibit effective financial intermediation, mobilization of domestic savings, and payment system efficiency. The authorities have been striving to address these challenges through digital initiatives.
• Republic of Kazakhstan: State-Owned Enterprises, the Fiscal Stance, and Risks
  • Published: February 10, 2026
  • Summary: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growth model. However, SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscal stance, complicating macroeconomic management.
• Beyond Oil: Accelerating Export Diversification for Sustainable Growth - Oman
  • Published: February 5, 2026
  • Summary: Since oil was discovered in the 1960s, Oman’s economy and living standards have improved significantly. Yet, it has also created a vulnerable economic structure, with economic growth and external and fiscal balances being highly sensitive to oil price swings.
• Golden Vision 2045: Making The Most Out of Public Investment: Indonesia
  • Published: February 4, 2026
  • Summary: Aside from horizontal structural reforms, raising public investment should be a key pillar of Indonesia’s pursuit of its Vision 2045. However, this must be complemented by policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of public investment, thereby maximizing its impact.
• Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade
  • Published: February 4, 2026
  • Summary: Indonesia has been pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and global partners, seeking to leverage external demand to reach high-income status by 2045. This welcome and timely effort comes amid ongoing trade policy shocks.
• Renewable Energy Transition in the Philippines: Trends, Opportunities, Challenges
  • Published: January 30, 2026
  • Summary: The Philippines is actively pursuing a renewable energy (RE) transition to meet its NDC targets and the COP28 pledge to triple global RE capacity.
• The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Finland’s Labor Market: Finland
  • Published: January 30, 2026
  • Summary: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly evolving and has the potential to reshape the job landscape across a broad range of skills and sectors. While most Finns will benefit from AI adoption, one-fifth of the workforce is at risk of job displacement.
• Unpacking Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Events and Policy Implications in the Philippines
  • Published: January 30, 2026
  • Summary: The Philippines is highly exposed to natural hazards, which are increasingly intensified by climate change, yet quantitative studies on the macroeconomic effects of climate shocks in the country remains limited.
• External Drivers of Credit Cycles in Cambodia
  • Published: January 8, 2026
  • Summary: This paper investigates the external drivers of Cambodia’s credit cycles using a dynamic factor model. Results indicate that common global and regional factors explain over 60 percent of credit growth variance, reflecting one of Asia’s highest sensitivities to external conditions.
• Satellite Data for Nowcasting: Estimating Cambodia’s GDP in Real Time Using Satellite Data in a Machine Learning Framework
  • Published: January 8, 2026
  • Summary: Cambodia is not alone in facing capacity limitations in the production and timely release of key official statistics needed for data-driven policy decisions. This paper demonstrates that combining satellite-derived indicators (e.g.
• Addressing Growth Bottlenecks in Botswana
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: While Botswana achieved strong post-independence growth supported by prudent macroeconomic management and diamond revenues, economic performance has weakened over the past two decades, with slower growth, persistently high unemployment, and erosion of fiscal and external buffers.
• Aruba’s Demographics and Its Potential Impact on the Labor Market and Output
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: Historically, Aruba benefited from population growth that expanded the labor force, thereby boosting productivity and fostering economic growth—a phenomenon known as the “demographic dividend”.
• Climate Adaptation and Energy Reform: Strengthening Botswana’s Macroeconomic Resilience
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: Botswana faces mounting macroeconomic risks from intensifying climate trends and fiscal strain from electricity subsidies. Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme heat, and longer droughts threaten agricultural yields, labor productivity, and long-term growth.
• Evaluating Armenia’s Fiscal Framework
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: This paper evaluates Armenia’s fiscal framework, focusing on fiscal rule design and implementation. Despite the 2018 reforms strengthening the Armenia’s fiscal rules, limitations persist: rules are somewhat procyclical and complex, ex-post enforcement is not legally binding, coverage is restricted t
• Improving Investment in Human Capital in Croatia: Efficiency of Public Spending on Education and Healthcare
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: Croatia’s public spending efficiency in education and healthcare can be increased. Increased efficiency would free fiscal resources that could be used for fiscal savings and/or improved outcomes.
• Inflation in Croatia: The Role of Fiscal Policy
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: After a period of sharp deceleration, inflation in Croatia has inched up since late 2024 to about 4–4½ percent year-on-year lately, among the highest in the euro area.
• Sea-Level Rise and Climate Adaptation in Aruba
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: Sea-level rise presents long-term risks in Aruba that can lead to sizable permanent costs with potentially large macroeconomic and fiscal consequences. Aruba cannot control global sea-level, but it can manage how it affects the country by adapting.
• Structural Reforms to Support Fiscal Consolidation
  • Published: December 30, 2025
  • Summary: Botswana faces growing fiscal challenges driven by declining diamond revenues, rigid expenditure, and weakened fiscal institutions, contributing to elevated fiscal deficits and rising public debt. These pressures underscore the need for timely reforms to safeguard fiscal and external sustainability.
• A Building Block Approach for Introducing a Positive Neutral Countercyclical Capital Buffer in Albania
  • Published: December 29, 2025
  • Summary: The paper discusses the introduction of a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for Albania. The building blocks present a step-by-step guide to assess preconditions to be in place.
• Andorra's Banking Sector: Opportunities and Risks
  • Published: December 29, 2025
  • Summary: Andorra has a large and distinct banking sector with a strong focus on private banking. Drawing comparisons with peer microstates and financial centers in Europe, the analysis highlights Andorran banks’ reliance on deposits, strong capital and liquidity buffers, and expansion into international mark
• Building Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Marshall Islands: Republic of the Marshall Islands
  • Published: December 29, 2025
  • Summary: The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) faces severe challenges due to its vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters, resulting in economic repercussions such as erosion, flooding, droughts, and damage to essential infrastructure.
• Climate Change in Small Open Economies: The Case of Andorra
  • Published: December 29, 2025
  • Summary: Climate change is macro-critical to Andorra: with (mostly winter) tourism accounting for one third of its economy, Andorra is directly exposed to climate change—shorter winter seasons, declining snow falls, higher costs from artificial snow making are all negatively affecting the economy’s main busi
• Housing Affordability in Andorra: Principality of Andorra
  • Published: December 29, 2025
  • Summary: Housing affordability is an increasing social and economic concern for Andorra. Changing demographics and increasing real estate prices and rents combine to create a housing affordability issue in Andorra.
• Scaling Up Quality Public Investment for Stronger Growth: Bulgaria
  • Published: December 4, 2025
  • Summary: The paper discusses Bulgaria’s public investment needs and its efficiency and assesses prospects for accelerating economic growth and income convergence through scaling up quality public investment.
• Healthy Aging and Labor Market Participation in Korea: Republic of Korea
  • Published: December 3, 2025
  • Summary: This paper investigate whether health improvements among Korean older workers influence their labor market outcomes, such as the decision to supply labor or to retire. The findings reveal that better health increases the probability of participating in the labor force and postponing retirement.
• Emerging Climate and Energy Transition Issues: Kingdom of the Netherlands - The Netherlands
  • Published: November 26, 2025
  • Summary: This chapter examines two key challenges for the Netherlands: distributional impacts of EU ETS reforms and the fiscal, environmental and power sector effects of road transport electrification.
• Labor Force Participation in Colombia
  • Published: November 25, 2025
  • Summary: Colombia’s labor force participation (LFP) showed a steady and gradual decline for both men and women between 2012 and 2019, which contrasts with rising LFP in regional peers.
• Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Colombia’s Energy Transition Plan
  • Published: November 25, 2025
  • Summary: This paper assesses the risks and opportunities of Colombia’s energy transition plan. Recognizing that a sharp fall in oil and coal production would weigh heavily on fiscal sustainability and regional economies, it emphasizes that a well-managed expansion of renewable energy would be essential to mi
• The Inflationary Risks of Expansionary Fiscal Policy: Colombia
  • Published: November 25, 2025
  • Summary: Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal policy poses a challenge to containing inflation.
• Boosting Growth in Uruguay Through Structural Reforms and Artificial Intelligence
  • Published: November 3, 2025
  • Summary: Over the last decades, Uruguay has made significant progress in advancing structural reforms, positioning itself as a regional leader in governance, macroeconomic stability, and trade openness. However, despite these achievements, economic convergence has stalled, and key structural gaps remain.
• Tax Expenditures in Uruguay
  • Published: November 3, 2025
  • Summary: With around 180 active tax expenditures and an estimated revenue foregone equivalent to about 6 percent of GDP in 2021, the third highest in Latin America, Uruguay offers a diverse array of tax breaks.
• Setting Up Fiscal Rules in Lesotho: Kingdom of Lesotho
  • Published: October 14, 2025
  • Summary: Lesotho’s fiscal policy has long been shaped by volatile SACU revenues and persistent expenditure pressures, calling for a more rules-based and forward-looking framework to ensure sustainability.
• Unleashing Private Sector Job Creation: Challenges and Opportunities for Lesotho
  • Published: October 14, 2025
  • Summary: Lesotho’s public sector led growth and employment model has struggled to develop a flourishing labor market, and recent external shocks have made developing job-rich growth an even more urgent priority.
• Potential Growth and Migration: Republic of Lithuania
  • Published: October 10, 2025
  • Summary: Recent immigrants have been successfully absorbed into the Lithuanian labor market and legislative amendments have enabled easier migration for high-skilled workers despite the reduction of non-EU workers quota in 2025.
• Taxes in Lithuania: Benchmarking and Policy Options
  • Published: October 10, 2025
  • Summary: Lithuania faces immediate fiscal challenges from increased defense needs adding to the existing long-term spending pressures. Tackling these requires a multifaceted strategy, including revenue mobilization to ensure fiscal sustainability.
• The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania: Republic of Lithuania
  • Published: October 10, 2025
  • Summary: Lithuania has seen strong income convergence since regaining independence, but in recent years progress in this respect has stalled as the contribution of capital deepening and TFP growth to labor productivity growth became lackluster.
• Allocative Efficiency, Firm Dynamics, and Productivity in Latvia: Republic of Latvia
  • Published: October 6, 2025
  • Summary: Latvia's economy has faced challenges in competitiveness, with labor productivity growth slowing over the past two decades. This paper analyzes labor productivity growth in Latvia and the Baltic region, focusing on allocative efficiency and firm dynamics.
• Ensuring Adequate and Affordable Pensions in Latvia: Republic of Latvia
  • Published: October 6, 2025
  • Summary: Latvia has a three-pillar pension system consisting of an earnings-related public scheme, a funded mandatory pillar, and a private voluntary contributions pillar. Despite its well-designed structure, the system faces challenges in ensuring adequate retirement income and curbing old-age poverty.
• Modernizing Latvia’s Electricity Sector Through Closer EU Integration: Republic of Latvia
  • Published: October 6, 2025
  • Summary: This paper discusses strategies to modernize Latvia’s electricity sector, focusing on deeper integration with the EU electricity grid.
• A Firm Level Analysis of Labor Productivity in Switzerland
  • Published: October 3, 2025
  • Summary: Switzerland’s labor productivity is generally higher than that in other advanced economy peers, although with significant variation across sectors and firm sizes. Multinational enterprises drive average productivity upwards, while small firms and the services sector lag.
• Algeria: Strengthening the Revenue Mobilization Strategy
  • Published: October 3, 2025
  • Summary: This Selected Issue Paper analyzes Algeria’s revenue mobilization challenges and outlines reform options to enhance non-hydrocarbon tax collection. With hydrocarbon revenues dominating public finances and exhibiting high volatility, Algeria’s non-hydrocarbon tax revenues remain low and stagnant.
• Enhancing Monetary Policy Transmission in Algeria
  • Published: October 3, 2025
  • Summary: Algeria is actively pursuing reforms to modernize its monetary policy framework, with a focus on enhancing the role of interest rates in achieving price stability.
• The Economic Impact of Uncertainty in Mali
  • Published: October 1, 2025
  • Summary: Economic uncertainty in Mali has increased over a number of years. Specifically, economic agents have less confidence about predicting the future and see an increased risk of negative outcomes.
• Public Investment Efficiency, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Guatemala
  • Published: September 25, 2025
  • Summary: Despite having moderate levels of public debt sovereign spreads, Guatemala is a country with limited levels of public investment efficiency (PIE) that actively constrain much needed infrastructure and social investment.
• Public Spending Adequacy and Efficiency in Guatemala: Sectoral Gaps and Priorities
  • Published: September 25, 2025
  • Summary: Guatemala faces the challenge of closing persistent social and infrastructure gaps with one of the lowest public spending levels among developing economies.
• Firm Growth in Zambia
  • Published: September 23, 2025
  • Summary: Firm growth in Zambia remains subdued, undermining the country’s potential to create jobs, raise productivity, and drive economic transformation.
• Zambia: Building Resilience to Climate Shocks
  • Published: September 23, 2025
  • Summary: Zambia faces growing challenges from climate-related natural disasters, particularly floods and droughts, which have become more frequent and severe in recent years.
• Regional Income Disparities in Panama
  • Published: September 16, 2025
  • Summary: Panama exhibits high income inequality largely driven by disparities between regions rather than within them. The Panama Canal corridor, including Panama City and Colón, benefits from concentrated economic activities with high labor productivity and incomes.
• State-Owned Enterprises in Panama
  • Published: September 16, 2025
  • Summary: Panama has a significant and diverse state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector, comprising 16 non-financial enterprises, 5 financial institutions, and the Panama Canal Authority (ACP).
• Revisiting the Tax Wedge in Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Published: September 11, 2025
  • Summary: This paper revisits labor tax wedge issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in light of recent changes to minimum wages and social security contribution (SSC) rates.
• The Real Estate Market in Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Published: September 11, 2025
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes recent developments in the real estate market in Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on housing price dynamics, financial stability implications, and policy responses.
• Promoting Energy Security in Hungary: A Model-based Analysis
  • Published: September 8, 2025
  • Summary: This paper evaluates Hungary’s energy security vulnerabilities and policy options in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the EU’s planned phaseout of Russian energy imports by 2027.
• Boosting Dutch Labor Productivity: Diagnostic and Policy Options
  • Published: September 4, 2025
  • Summary: Although the level of Dutch labor productivity is high, its growth faces challenges. From an employment perspective, productivity can be boosted by improving education outcomes, strengthening vocational training, and reducing labor market duality.
• The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Denmark’s Labor Market
  • Published: August 25, 2025
  • Summary: Artificial Intelligence (AI) has significantly advanced in recent years. As a result, it has the potential to reshape the job landscape across a broad range of skills and sectors.
• Policy Options to Strengthen São Tomé and Príncipe's Resilience to Natural Disasters
  • Published: August 22, 2025
  • Summary: São Tomé and Príncipe is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and strengthening resilience is macro-critical. The government faces significant challenges, including weak infrastructure, insufficient protection against floods, and lack of financial resources.
• Strengthening Inflation Forecasting in São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Published: August 22, 2025
  • Summary: This paper examines the drivers of inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe and develops a model for forecasting it. It finds that both supply and demand factors contribute to inflation in the country.
• Strengthening Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management in São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Published: August 22, 2025
  • Summary: This paper presents strategic recommendations aimed at improving the monetary policy and liquidity management framework in São Tomé and Príncipe.
• Unlocking Iraq's Economic Potential: The Role of Structural Reforms in Boosting Medium Term Non-Oil Growth
  • Published: August 19, 2025
  • Summary: Iraq’s non-oil economic growth has been slow, constrained by low productivity, limited investment and an inefficient use of human capital.
• Financial Interconnectedness in Asia and the Pacific: Recent Shifts and Implications for Singapore
  • Published: August 14, 2025
  • Summary: This paper examines financial interconnectedness in Asia, particularly through Singapore, and the link between trade and financial flows. It finds that Asia's financial integration lags behind its trade integration and is led by advanced economies like Singapore.
• Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity Decoupling
  • Published: August 12, 2025
  • Summary: The UK’s productivity gap with the US has widened over the past two decades, with productivity growth rates decoupling after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
• Industrial Policy in the UK: United Kingdom
  • Published: August 12, 2025
  • Summary: A key challenge facing the UK is to increase growth, which has slowed down markedly since the Global Financial Crisis. As part of the government’s approach to this challenge, a new industrial strategy was published in June 2025.
• Navigating Serbia’s Economic Future: The Crucial Role of Productivity
  • Published: August 6, 2025
  • Summary: Serbia has grown at a rate comparable to peers over recent decades, but the income gap with the EU, albeit narrowing, remains large.
• Bolstering Social Protection and Human Capital to Promote Inclusive Growth: Guinea-Bissau
  • Published: August 1, 2025
  • Summary: Guinea-Bissau’s social sectors face persistent challenges despite the progress made over the past few years. This paper reviews existing social protection programs in the country, assesses the efficiency and adequacy of public spending, and formulates recommendations to enhance value for money in so
• Domestic Revenue Mobilization in Guinea-Bissau
  • Published: August 1, 2025
  • Summary: This paper quantifies Guinea-Bissau’s tax potential using a stochastic frontier model and investigates the underlying sources of untapped revenue.
• Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia
  • Published: July 30, 2025
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper reviews Ethiopia’s transition to an interest-rate based monetary framework. For this framework to be effective, monetary transmission—the process through which policy rate changes affect inflation and economic activity—must function reliably.
• Ethiopia - Fiscal Federalism: Fiscal Policy Considerations for the Medium Term
  • Published: July 30, 2025
  • Summary: Ethiopia’s interregional fiscal arrangements entail a sizable redistribution of resources. They help the objective of income redistribution and equity, as well as providing partial insurance against regional macroeconomic shocks.
• Ethiopia’s Tax System: Structure, Performance, and Benchmarking
  • Published: July 30, 2025
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper reviews Ethiopia’s tax system, highlighting its persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio despite sustained economic growth.
• Potential Drivers of Post-Reform Parallel Market Premium: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
  • Published: July 30, 2025
  • Summary: A comparative analysis of Ethiopia with Angola, Egypt, and Nigeria highlights three structural factors that may be sustaining the parallel market premium despite exchange rate unification: (i) some remaining current account restrictions, including a 2.
• Allocative Efficiency, Firm Dynamics, and Productivity in the Baltics: Republic of Estonia
  • Published: July 24, 2025
  • Summary: Labor productivity growth has decelerated in the Baltic economies during the past two decades, with the downturn accelerating in recent years. This Selected Issues Paper analyzes the roles of allocative efficiency and firm dynamics in productivity growth.
• Options to Strengthen the Tax System in Estonia: Republic of Estonia
  • Published: July 24, 2025
  • Summary: Estonia’s tax mix has been traditionally reliant on consumption taxes—especially VAT—whereas income taxes are a relatively small share of revenue. Recent and expected changes will further shift the tax burden in this direction.
• Revisiting Fiscal Multipliers for Estonia: Republic of Estonia
  • Published: July 24, 2025
  • Summary: This Selected Issues Paper revisits fiscal multipliers for Estonia with a view to highlighting policy trade-offs and providing growth-friendly options for fiscal consolidation. The pandemic triggered a sharp and partly permanent increase in government spending.
• Strengthening Resilience in Kiribati with Public Investment: Kiribati
  • Published: July 24, 2025
  • Summary: Kiribati, a collection of remote archipelagos of mostly low-lying atolls, faces significant risks from natural hazards and an existential risk from rising sea levels.
• Assessing the Monetary Policy Implications of Changes in Owner-Occupied Housing Cost Measurement: Insights from ICEQMOD
  • Published: July 19, 2025
  • Summary: This paper evaluates the policy implications of changing the methodology for calculating the cost of owner-occupied housing in the CPI from a “user cost” approach to “rental equivalence” approach.
• Fostering Human Capital in Tanzania’s Rapidly Growing Population: Tanzania
  • Published: July 19, 2025
  • Summary: Tanzania’s human capital development needs are staggering and need to be addressed urgently to reap the benefits of the ongoing demographic transition. Almost half of Tanzanians are under 18 years of age, and the population is projected to double to more than 130 million by 2050.
• The Business Environment and Productivity in Tanzania: Evidence from Firm Level Data
  • Published: July 19, 2025
  • Summary: Using the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, this paper sheds light on the relationship between total factor productivity (TFP) and the business environment in Tanzania.
• Energy Subsidy Reform in Libya: Libya
  • Published: July 12, 2025
  • Summary: Energy subsidies have become a significant burden on government finances in Libya. The pervasive nature of subsidies has led to rampant corruption, smuggling, and a diversion of resources from essential public services.
• Credit Developments and Macro-Financial Risks in Namibia: Namibia
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: This chapter examines the evolution of bank credit in Namibia over the past two decades. It highlights notable trends and the composition of credit growth, with a particular focus on the private sector.
• Fiscal Forecasting Errors in Nigeria
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning's budget implementation reports reveal large fiscal forecast errors over the 2011-2023 period, for a range of fiscal aggregates including total revenues, expenditures, and the fiscal deficit.
• Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Challenges: Nigeria
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: Climate events significantly impact Nigeria's growth outlook, fiscal sustainability, balance of payments and financial sector, potentially undermining macroeconomic stability. Extreme weather events and their frequency have a direct effect on growth and the balance of payments.
• Namibia: Labor Markets and Resource Dependence
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: With high unemployment, especially among the youth, Namibia lags behind the SSA region on labor market outcomes. Between 2012 and 2018, there was a structural shift in the economy from agriculture to services, as younger workers took up low-productivity service sector jobs.
• Navigating Weather Shocks: Challenges and Investing to Strengthen Agriculture Resilience in Namibia
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: Namibia’s arid climate makes it highly susceptible to severe weather shocks. The prolonged drought in 2023–24 caused a sharp decline in crop yields and exacerbated food insecurity.
• Regulating the Crypto Market in Nigeria
  • Published: July 11, 2025
  • Summary: In recent years; the trading of crypto assets has surged among individuals and businesses in Nigeria. The authorities are strengthening the regulatory and supervisory framework for crypto assets to address potential risks including undetected capital outflows and currency speculation; money launderi
• Benchmarking Public Spending Efficiency in Education, Health, and Infrastructure in Ireland
  • Published: July 7, 2025
  • Summary: The paper benchmarks Ireland’s public spending efficiency to peer countries in infrastructure, health, and education using a variety of indicators and maps the efficiency frontiers in these sectors using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method.
• Considerations for a Stronger Fiscal Framework in Ireland
  • Published: July 7, 2025
  • Summary: Ireland’s reliance on corporate income tax (CIT) receipts from multinational enterprises (MNEs), concentrated in a small number of companies, presents significant risks to the budget.
• Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Ireland
  • Published: July 7, 2025
  • Summary: Ireland’s economy is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign direct investment (FDI), notably from the US.
• The Sequencing and speed of Reforms in Transition Economies: Implications for the Case of Uzbekistan
  • Published: June 27, 2025
  • Summary: Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since 2017, achieving advancements in macroeconomic stabilization, trade and exchange rate liberalization, price liberalization, and small-scale privatization.
• Uzbekistan and Public-Private Partnerships: Country Lessons, Republic of Uzbekistan
  • Published: June 27, 2025
  • Summary: Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) utilize private sector expertise, risk sharing, management, and financing to improve public investment. However, these benefits also carry risks. Project level risks include poor selection, optimism bias, off-budget financing, and contract renegotiation.
• Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Fiji
  • Published: June 26, 2025
  • Summary: Fiji faces significant challenges from sea-level rise (SLR), which could cause annual economic losses averaging 1.8% of GDP from 2020 to 2099. While widespread coastal protection measures limit damages, they are costly and may not yield significant net savings.
• Strengthening The Rules-Based Fiscal Framework in Papua New Guinea: Papua New Guinea
  • Published: June 18, 2025
  • Summary: Papua New Guinea’s public debt has increased significantly in recent years, leading to a high risk of debt distress and exposing significant gaps in the existing fiscal setting.
• Kyrgyz Republic: Fiscal Risks from State-owned Enterprises
  • Published: June 17, 2025
  • Summary: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the Kyrgyz Republic play a significant role in the economy but also present potential fiscal risks. This paper assesses these risks through both aggregate and firm-level lenses.
• Labor Market Challenges and Policy Reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic
  • Published: June 17, 2025
  • Summary: This SIP reviews the labor market constraints to growth and development in the Kyrgyz Republic, including gender-specific constraints. It is motivated by the high annual population growth rate of 2 percent, which implies 50,000 new labor market entrants per year.
• Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic
  • Published: June 17, 2025
  • Summary: This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict.
• Revamping Fiscal Decentralization to Secure Peru’s Position as a Leading Critical Mineral Exporter: Peru
  • Published: June 16, 2025
  • Summary: Peru’s mining wealth holds the promise to substantially accelerate potential growth. However, many mining projects have been stalled for several years due to conflicts with local communities that feel excluded from the benefits.
• Exploring the Determinants of Early Retirement in Spain: Spain
  • Published: June 13, 2025
  • Summary: Increased longevity and population aging pose growing fiscal challenges for Spain, which can be mitigated by encouraging greater labor force participation among older workers.
• Policies to Achieve Spain’s Climate Objectives: Spain
  • Published: June 13, 2025
  • Summary: Spain aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions, which implies further 30 percent cut from 2023 levels by 2030, requiring new measures beyond current efforts. Emission intensity varies widely across Spanish firms, offering potential for reductions by incentivizing laggards to match less-polluting peers.
• Post-Pandemic Investment in Spain: Assessing the Sluggish Recovery
  • Published: June 13, 2025
  • Summary: This paper examines Spain’s investment performance five years after the COVID-19 pandemic. As of 2024, investment had only returned to pre-pandemic levels and remained below historical fundamentals and euro area peers, particularly in transport equipment and other construction.
• Spain’s Productivity Gap Vis-à-Vis Europe and the United States: Diagnosis and Remedies
  • Published: June 13, 2025
  • Summary: Spain's GDP per capita gap with highest-income euro area economies and the US is mainly due to a productivity shortfall. Spanish tech firms lag in productivity and innovation, partly due to weaker R&D investment.
• New Zealand's Productivity Challenge: New Zealand
  • Published: June 9, 2025
  • Summary: Weak productivity growth continues to pose a challenge for New Zealand’s long-term economic prospects. Hindered by a remote geography and large agriculture and tourism sectors, slow aggregate productivity growth also reflects costs and incentives for investment and innovation, features of the busine
• Domestic Revenue Mobilization in WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: June 6, 2025
  • Summary: Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) is essential for financing economic and social development and ensuring debt sustainability in WAEMU, particularly in light of rising interest, high security spending, and the prospective reduction in foreign aid.
• Education in the WAEMU: Current Situation and the Way Forward
  • Published: June 6, 2025
  • Summary: This paper makes the case for prioritizing the education sector in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) by taking stock of the outcomes and documenting its macroeconomic relevance.
• Food Security in WAEMU: Current Challenges and a Way Forward
  • Published: June 6, 2025
  • Summary: Food insecurity in WAEMU has worsened over the last few years—mainly due to conflicts, climate, and affordability issues—with the Sahel zone being in a particularly difficult situation.
• Model-Driven Macrofinancial Policy Analysis in the WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: June 6, 2025
  • Summary: This quantitative model for Macrofinancial Policy Analysis for the WAEMU was developed to deepen the Fund’s engagement in macrofinancial surveillance in the region.
• Unleashing the Benefits of Intra-African Trade Integration for the WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: June 6, 2025
  • Summary: WAEMU members’ trade openness, integration into global value chains (GVCs), and export diversification remain limited. Tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs, obstacles to trade that arise mainly from differences in national regulations), and a challenging trade environment (e.g.
• ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks
  • Published: May 29, 2025
  • Summary: The Citizenship-by-Investment Programs (CBI) have long been recognized in their importance to fiscal revenue in the ECCU, but there is less clarity over their broader economic contributions.
• Fiscal Sustainability and Natural Disaster Risks in the ECCU: ECCU
  • Published: May 29, 2025
  • Summary: ECCU countries are highly vulnerable to recurring and increasingly severe natural disasters. Evidence suggests that severe natural disaster have negative impacts on fiscal balances and debt in the region.
• Powering the Future: Energy Transition Strategies for the ECCU
  • Published: May 29, 2025
  • Summary: Reducing energy dependence in the ECCU entails improving energy efficiency and shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This energy transition will affect the transmission of and vulnerability to shocks (e.g.
• Property Insurance Challenges in the ECCU: ECCU
  • Published: May 29, 2025
  • Summary: Property insurance affordability presents a growing challenge for the ECCU. With a high reliance on global reinsurance to manage risks in high-exposure products like property, the recent tightening of global reinsurance market conditions has largely passed through to local premiums and constrained c
• Impact of International Shocks on North Macedonia and the Western Balkans: Republic of North Macedonia
  • Published: May 22, 2025
  • Summary: The Western Balkan economies have faced numerous external shocks in recent years, while simultaneously becoming more integrated with the European Union.
• Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia
  • Published: May 22, 2025
  • Summary: The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.
• Enhancing Effectiveness of Solomon Islands' Fiscal Framework
  • Published: May 16, 2025
  • Summary: Solomon Islands faces the immediate fiscal challenges of rebuilding cash reserves, improving the quality of public spending, and imposing fiscal discipline on domestic borrowing.
• Strengthening Fiscal Data Governance in Solomon Islands
  • Published: May 16, 2025
  • Summary: Solomon Islands faces challenges in fiscal data governance despite reforms. While the Public Financial Management Act (PFMA) of 2013 aimed to enhance transparency, inconsistent implementation and resource constraints persist.
• Remittances to Samoa: A Safe Payment Corridor
  • Published: May 14, 2025
  • Summary: This paper provides a targeted analysis of ML/TF risks pertaining to remittances to Samoa, confirming limited risks, and discusses potential opportunities for streamlining applicable AML/CFT requirements to operationalize regional remittances risk assessments.
• Governance and The Fight Against Corruption in Angola: Quid Vales? Quo Vadis?
  • Published: May 13, 2025
  • Summary: This paper reviews Angola’s recent reform efforts to strengthen good governance and fight corruption. Angola has achieved some progress on the governance and anti-corruption fronts since 2018, but the strong momentum observed through 2022 has abated.
• Harnessing Angola’s Non-Oil Economic Growth: Economic Diversification in Angola
  • Published: May 13, 2025
  • Summary: Although Angola has made advances in its diversification efforts, the economy continues to be heavily dependent on crude oil with 94 percent of exports and 60 percent of fiscal revenues being attributable to oil activity.
• Improve Resource Allocation to Boost Growth in Greece
  • Published: May 10, 2025
  • Summary: The productivity growth of the Greek economy has stagnated since the 2010 European Debt Crisis. Despite reforms in product market regulations; their impact on productivity has been mixed.
• Andorra: Income and Its Drivers in a Long-Term Perspective
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: Income in Andorra has stagnated in the last 50 years. Starting from a very high level compared to peers, it has not grown as fast, as investment and productivity have lagged behind.
• Assessing Thailand’s Debt Ceiling—Room for Recalibration?
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: The pandemic responses and subsequent fiscal stimulus measures have eroded Thailand’s fiscal space, pushing its public debt close to the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP.
• Enhancing Judicial System Efficiency in Greece: Drivers and Economic Impact
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: Greece’s judicial system efficiency has been one of the lowest in the EU; affecting adversely the country’s economic performance.
• Fiscal Implications of Aging in Andorra: Pension and Healthcare System Reforms
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: Andorra has the highest life expectancy and the lowest fertility rate in Europe, resulting in one of the fastest-aging populations on the continent. This study assesses the long-term fiscal implications of demographic change for Andorra’s pension and healthcare systems.
• Household Deleveraging: International Practices: Thailand
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: Household sector over-indebtedness has been a critical issue in Thailand in recent years. This paper starts with a summary of the deleveraging measures implemented so far in Thailand, and then presents four country case studies (Brazil, Hungary, Korea, and Malaysia), with a focus on the measures int
• Unlocking the Work Force Potential: Empowering Women to Boost Economic Growth and Greek Prosperity
  • Published: May 9, 2025
  • Summary: The strong recent economic recovery has improved Greece’s near-term outlook. However, unfavorable demographics require raising the labor force participation, particularly for women, to boost medium-term growth.
• Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Hong Kong SAR: Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region
  • Published: May 5, 2025
  • Summary: Hong Kong SAR’s corporate sector vulnerabilities appear manageable but have increased in recent years. Local non-real estate firms have seen weakening profitability and lower debt-servicing capacity, reflecting pandemic scarring effects and higher funding costs driven by the hiking cycle of U.S.
• Hong Kong SAR’s Economy in the Face of Climate Change: Risks and Prospects
  • Published: May 5, 2025
  • Summary: Hong Kong SAR is facing ongoing challenges from climate change, with projections indicating that these issues will remain prevalent or even intensify in the future.
• The Fiscal Implications of Population Aging for Hong Kong SAR: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
  • Published: May 5, 2025
  • Summary: Hong Kong SAR’s significant demographic pressures will create fiscal challenges for the authorities. Fiscal expenditure pressures from population aging have already been rising rapidly for over a decade and are expected to increase significantly in coming years, even without factoring in the cost of
• Cross-Border Income Flows in Liechtenstein: Principality of Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: In Liechtenstein, the gap between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) is significant due to the country’s economic structure as a financial center with a high percentage of cross-border commuters and globally competitive manufacturers contributing to high GDP per capita.
• Higher Frequency Indicators for Liechtenstein: Principality of Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: This paper describes steps to compile a high-frequency indicator of growth to be used for timely monitoring of real sector activity in Liechtenstein.
• Labor Market in Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: Liechtenstein's labor market is characterized by a high reliance on non-resident workers, with commuters comprising the greater share of employment, particularly in higher-skilled occupations.
• Liechtenstein as a Financial Center: Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: Liechtenstein has strategically positioned itself as a prominent financial center in the wake of the global financial crisis and increasing demands for transparency. The strategy emphasizes transparency, compliance and robust regulatory framework aligned with international standards.
• Liechtenstein: The Fiscal Sector Framework
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: This paper analyzes Liechtenstein's fiscal framework, highlighting its successful consolidation following the global financial crisis. The study examines the budget balance rule that anchors fiscal policy, benchmarking key fiscal indicators against European peers.
• Liechtenstein’s Pension System: Liechtenstein
  • Published: April 28, 2025
  • Summary: The paper analyzes Liechtenstein's three-pillar pension system, assessing its structure, funding mechanisms, sustainability and adequacy challenges.
• Enhancing Governance in Niger: Progress, Challenges, and Policy Priorities
  • Published: April 18, 2025
  • Summary: Niger, a low-income and conflict-affected state, faces significant governance challenges that hinder economic development.
• Estimating Potential Output in Niger: Niger
  • Published: April 18, 2025
  • Summary: Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital.
• Tax Potential and Revenue Mobilization in Niger: Niger
  • Published: April 18, 2025
  • Summary: Niger faces significant challenges to mobilize revenue, with one of the lowest tax revenue to GDP ratios in the region. This paper estimates the tax revenue gap, which reflects the difference between the actual and the potential tax revenue given economic and institutional context.
• Foreign Exchange Intervention Through the Lens of the Quantitative Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of Albania
  • Published: April 15, 2025
  • Summary: In recent years, Albania has experienced a sustained appreciation of the domestic currency. This raises the questions of what factors are driving this appreciation and how to calibrate appropriate policy responses.
• Stress Testing the Albanian Banking Sector: A Decade Post-FSAP
  • Published: April 15, 2025
  • Summary: Over the past decade, the Albanian banking sector has undergone a remarkable transformation amid strong macroeconomic performance and sound financial reforms.
• Embracing Digitalization to Accelerate Oman's Economic Transformation: Oman
  • Published: April 14, 2025
  • Summary: Motivated by Oman’s economic transformation agenda, this paper: (i) takes stock of the state of digitalization in Oman; (ii) provides an illustration of potential gains from enhanced digitalization; and (iii) highlights policy priorities that can support the authorities endeavors in advancing their
• Fostering Capital Markets and Institutional Investor Development in Oman: Oman
  • Published: April 14, 2025
  • Summary: Despite recent government-led initiatives to improve investor access and encourage participation by local businesses, capital markets in Oman remain relatively small and illiquid and the investor base remains dominated by domestic banks and pension funds.
• Fostering Entrepreneurship and SMEs to Support Economic Diversification in Oman: Oman
  • Published: April 14, 2025
  • Summary: The transition to a vibrant economy under Oman Vision 2040 and the urgency to develop a more dynamic private sector that can absorb the entry of a young and educated labor force both stress the need to empower SMEs, which play a large role in supporting job creation and nonhydrocarbon activity in Om
• Labor Market Dynamics in Oman: Oman
  • Published: April 14, 2025
  • Summary: The prevalent strong preference for public sector employment among young Omanis, coupled with demographic pressures and medium-term fiscal sustainability objectives amid economic diversification away from hydrocarbons, underscores the urgency to pivot towards a more dynamic private sector that attra
• Tracing the Slowdown of Labor Productivity Growth: Sweden
  • Published: April 14, 2025
  • Summary: Labor productivity in Sweden is among the highest in Europe but has been experiencing a secular decline since the GFC, similar to trends in other advanced economies.
• Assessing Climate Change Risks: Potential Output Losses and Gains from Strengthening Resilience, Bahamas
  • Published: April 10, 2025
  • Summary: The Bahamas is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes.
• Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in The Bahamas: Bahamas
  • Published: April 10, 2025
  • Summary: To analyze Bahamian sovereign spreads, a fundamentals-based model is estimated using data on emerging market economies. The main findings are: first, while both domestic and global covariates are important determinants of spreads, a sizeable effect comes from the interaction of global risk aversion
• Housing Affordability in The Bahamas: Bahamas
  • Published: April 10, 2025
  • Summary: Though the population in The Bahamas has expanded swiftly since 2010, the stock and affordability of new housing has not kept pace due to limited wage growth and financing constraints.
• The Implications of the Electricity Sector Reform in The Bahamas: Bahamas
  • Published: April 10, 2025
  • Summary: Low efficiency and reliability in the energy sector, paired with high costs, dampens competitiveness and holds up growth in The Bahamas.
• Improving Education Quality: The Returns to Teacher Training In Madagascar, Republic of Madagascar
  • Published: March 31, 2025
  • Summary: This paper highlights the role of teacher training in improving educational outcomes in Madagascar. With a low and stagnating Human Capital Index of 0.39 and high learning poverty rates, economic growth is hindered by an inadequately skilled workforce.
• Rice Production in Madagascar: Challenges to Self-Sufficiency
  • Published: March 31, 2025
  • Summary: The Malagasy government aims for self-sufficiency in rice production by 2027, targeting 6 million tons in 2024 and 11 million tons by 2030. Despite recent production increases, challenges such as competition from cheaper imports, low productivity, and climate change persist.
• The Electricity Sector and Jirama: Republic of Madagascar
  • Published: March 31, 2025
  • Summary: Madagascar faces significant challenges in electricity access, with only 36 percent of the population connected. The state-owned utility, JIRAMA, struggles with inefficient production, high transmission and distribution losses, and tariffs below recovery costs.
• Growth Benefits of Macro-Structural Reforms in South Africa: South Africa
  • Published: March 28, 2025
  • Summary: South Africa's economic growth has stagnated over the past decade due to entrenched structural rigidities. This paper examines the impact of reforms addressing shortcomings in governance, business regulation, and labor market on output and employment.
• Macroeconomic Effects of a Potential Change in South Africa’s Inflation Target: South Africa
  • Published: March 28, 2025
  • Summary: South Africa’s inflation-targeting framework has served the country well, playing a key role in reducing inflation since 2000.
• South Africa's Fiscal Framework: Challenges and Options for Reform
  • Published: March 28, 2025
  • Summary: South Africa’s public debt has tripled since the global financial crisis and is not expected to stabilize over the medium term under staff’s baseline.
• Firm Dynamics and Firm-Level Total Factor Productivity in Belgium: Belgium
  • Published: March 25, 2025
  • Summary: Belgium’s total factor productivity (TFP) growth slowdown since the late 1990s has been worse than peers’ despite significant spending on innovation.
• Improving the Efficiency of Public Investment in Infrastructure in Belgium: Belgium
  • Published: March 25, 2025
  • Summary: Against a backdrop of constrained fiscal space, Belgium faces considerable investment needs. Improving infrastructure governance processes can enhance investment efficiency, achieving more “bang” for each investment “buck”.
• Increasing Public Investment, Fostering Digitalization, and Supporting the Green Transition: A Difficult Challenge
  • Published: March 25, 2025
  • Summary: Public investment in Belgium has been low historically. Against severe budgetary constraints and fiscal consolidation requirements, public investment should however be preserved or, ideally, increased to mitigate the demand impact of consolidation and enhance productive capacity to lift potential gr
• Public Education in Belgium: Improving Outcome While Reducing Cost
  • Published: March 25, 2025
  • Summary: Educational outcomes in Belgium are comparable to peers but achieved at a higher cost. The public wage bill for education is higher than in peers, reflecting smaller student-to-teacher ratios and less teaching time. Yet, Belgium experiences teacher shortages.
• Artificial Intelligence in Qatar: Assessing the Potential Economic Impacts
  • Published: March 6, 2025
  • Summary: Qatar has been actively preparing to embrace the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), allowing it to lead its Emerging Market peers in AI readiness.
• Building a Knowledge-Based Economy to Boost Growth: The Role of Export Diversification in Qatar
  • Published: March 6, 2025
  • Summary: Motivated by Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy, this note discusses ingredients for boosting export diversification and growth potential.
• Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
  • Published: March 6, 2025
  • Summary: Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined.
• Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar: Qatar
  • Published: March 6, 2025
  • Summary: This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth.
• Korea in a Changing Global Trade Landscape: Korea
  • Published: March 4, 2025
  • Summary: The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.
• Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea
  • Published: March 4, 2025
  • Summary: This paper examines the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea. Korea is among the global frontrunners in AI adoption, with higher adoption rates among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms.
• Growth and Production Network in Chile: Chile
  • Published: February 25, 2025
  • Summary: Productivity growth depends not only on technological innovation but also on production networks that amplify its impact. Theory and cross-country evidence indicate a positive relationship between productivity growth and the use of intermediate inputs, a measure of network connectedness.
• Post-Pandemic Changes to Chile’s Financial Markets: Chile
  • Published: February 25, 2025
  • Summary: Pension fund withdrawals, rising public debt, and the Central Bank of Chile’s pandemic liquidity injections have reshaped Chile’s financial landscape. In the context of the diminished demand for local bonds, large non-financial corporations and the government relied more on foreign investors.
• Real Estate Sector and Financial Stability Risks in Chile: Chile
  • Published: February 25, 2025
  • Summary: The Chilean real estate sector has recently undergone adjustments which have increased the risks for the financial sector, but the system remains overall resilient. In the baseline, the real estate market is expected to modestly recover, and several factors mitigate credit risk.
• Assessing Gender Gaps in Malta
  • Published: February 17, 2025
  • Summary: The Maltese authorities have made significant progress towards gender equality over the last two decades. Supportive government policies and a steady inflow of foreign labor have played a key role in increasing women’s participation in the labor market.
• Taking Stock of Infrastructure in Malta
  • Published: February 17, 2025
  • Summary: Malta’s rapid growth over the past two decades has gone hand in hand with a significant expansion of the population. This has created bottlenecks in infrastructure, which will need to be addressed.
• The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Malta’s Labor Market
  • Published: February 17, 2025
  • Summary: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative AI models and their use have significantly advanced in recent years, evolving from their historical role in automating routine tasks to now performing complex cognitive functions.
• ECB Monetary Policy Passthrough to Bank Interest Rates During Tightening: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: This paper analyzes the transmission of ECB policy rate changes to bank interest rates in Kosovo during the 2022-23 tightening cycle. While both lending and deposit rates increased, the passthrough was more limited compared to the euro area and regional peers.
• Financial Buffers in a Euroized Economy: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: This paper analyzes reserve adequacy measurement in Kosovo, where euro serves as the legal tender. The study adapts the IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy framework to Kosovo's unique monetary context, focusing on precautionary motives for holding reserves.
• Labor Market and Gender: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: Kosovo’s female labor force participation ranks among the lowest globally, resulting in a substantial gender participation gap. This paper examines the drivers of this phenomenon and estimates the potential economic gains from eliminating this disparity.
• Labor Market Integration and Migration: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: This paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased.
• The Challenge of Pension Reform in Kosovo: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: This paper examines the evolution and challenges of Kosovo's pension system. Since its inception, a basic pension and mandatory individual accounts have formed the key element of Kosovo’s pension system.
• Using Digitalization to Enhance Public Finance in Kosovo: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: January 16, 2025
  • Summary: Kosovo has embarked on a journey of digital transformation, developing digital infrastructure to provide access to households, companies, and educational institutions and modernizing its public finance system through GovTech.
• Productivity Shocks to the Pharmaceutical Sector and the Danish Economy: Denmark
  • Published: December 24, 2024
  • Summary: The pharmaceutical industry in Denmark has grown rapidly in recent years. This paper discusses the macroeconomic impact of the pharmaceutical sector. The analysis focuses on Novo Nordisk, the leading pharmaceutical company in Denmark, and its productivity impact on the rest of the economy.
• Vulnerabilities and Risks in Denmark’s Nonbank Financial Institutions: Denmark
  • Published: December 24, 2024
  • Summary: Denmark’s nonbank financial institutions (NBFI) sector has substantially increased in size since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), becoming an important part of the financial system.
• How Has Dollarization Served Timor-Leste So Far?
  • Published: December 20, 2024
  • Summary: This paper analyzes Timor-Leste’s historical economic performance and structure under dollarization. It considers several dimensions that determine the benefits and costs of the regime: (i) growth and inflation performance; (ii) business and financial cycle synchronization; (iii) adjustment to exter
• Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Singapore: Singapore
  • Published: August 23, 2024
  • Summary: Singapore has addressed high inflation over the past years amid a tight labor market through several rounds of tightening of the exchange rate-based monetary policy.
• Impact of AI on Singapore's Labor Market: Singapore
  • Published: August 23, 2024
  • Summary: Singapore is well-prepared for AI adoption but stands highly exposed to the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the workplace, due to a large share of skilled workforce.
• Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown to the Singapore Economy: Singapore
  • Published: August 23, 2024
  • Summary: This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects.
• Hungary’s Corporate Sector Risk: A Machine Learning Approach
  • Published: August 12, 2024
  • Summary: In recent years, Hungary’s non-financial corporations were confronted with multiple shocks, ranging from the pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions to the historic tightening of domestic monetary policy.
• Monetary Policy Analysis with a Quarterly Projection Model: Hungary
  • Published: August 12, 2024
  • Summary: The calibration of monetary policy is particularly challenging at a time of large shocks. Interest rates in Hungary rose sharply in response a significant increase in inflation and depreciation in the forint in 2022.
• Regional Disparities in Hungary: Drivers and Implications of the Digital and Green Transitions
  • Published: August 12, 2024
  • Summary: Hungary is gradually converging to the average income level of the EU, but regional disparities remain persistently high and may worsen with the digital and green transitions.
• Deep Dive on the Climate Transition for France: Macroeconomic Implications, Fiscal Policies, and Financial Risks
  • Published: August 1, 2024
  • Summary: Climate change presents an unprecedented long-term challenge to the French and global economy. While France has made significant progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, important additional policy efforts will be needed to meet key mitigation targets.
• Financial Stability Risks from Commercial Real Estate: Germany
  • Published: August 1, 2024
  • Summary: Following post-pandemic tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, commercial real estate (CRE) markets have been under pressure globally, including in Germany.
• Options for Creating Fiscal Room for Investment and Other Spending Needs: Germany
  • Published: August 1, 2024
  • Summary: Germany needs substantially higher levels of public investment. At the same time, the country is facing rising pension, healthcare, long-term care, and defense expenditures.
• State-Owned Enterprises in Mozambique: Current Situation and Policy Options
  • Published: August 1, 2024
  • Summary: This paper documents the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Mozambique, discusses some important fiscal issues, and makes the case for improvements in governance and transparency.
• Construction Planning Reforms for Growth and Investment: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 24, 2024
  • Summary: The UK construction planning system is overly stringent and the localized and discretionary system of decision-making makes it highly unpredictable.
• Monetary Policy Issues in the UK: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 24, 2024
  • Summary: After hiking rates 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August 2023 to arrest above-target inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates at 5.25 percent since then.
• Public Spending Pressures in the UK: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 24, 2024
  • Summary: This paper characterizes UK public spending pressures over a ten-year horizon and their implications for public deficits and debt levels.
• Upskilling the UK Workforce: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 24, 2024
  • Summary: The UK workforce has larger and more chronic skills gaps than in most peer countries, with surveys reporting widespread recruitment difficulties, with implications for output, in high-skill sectors like digital and software, manufacturing, medicine and life sciences, teaching, and construction.
• Japan’s Fertility: More Children Please
  • Published: July 1, 2024
  • Summary: Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government.
• Startups and Venture Capital in Japan: How to Grow
  • Published: July 1, 2024
  • Summary: The startup ecosystem in Japan has seen gradual growth, supported by the government’s recent "Startup Development Five-Year Plan" and a significant interest from overseas venture capital.
• Sustainable Path to Inclusive Growth in Japan: How to Tackle Income Inequality?
  • Published: July 1, 2024
  • Summary: Market income inequality in Japan has been on a steady rise since the 1980s, and is now close to the OECD average. Gross and disposable income inequality, on the other hand, have risen much less but remain higher relative to several comparator countries.
• Why Such Few Women in Leadership Positions in Japan?: Japan
  • Published: July 1, 2024
  • Summary: The share of women in managerial and leadership roles in Japan – in both the public and private sector – are among the lowest across the globe. This paper empirically examines what drives these large gender gaps in leadership in Japan, using the SVAR model.
• Bulgaria: Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises
  • Published: June 24, 2024
  • Summary: State-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) economic and financial performance may have important fiscal implications. This study evaluates related fiscal risks in Bulgaria from both aggregate and firm-level perspectives. The low level of state-guaranteed debt of SOEs poses minimal fiscal risk.
• Bulgaria in Global Value Chains: Leveraging Integration with the EU: Bulgaria
  • Published: June 24, 2024
  • Summary: As a small open economy, Bulgaria benefits from economic exchanges with global partners. However, after a boost before the Global Financial Crisis and EU accession, its integration in global value chains has been growing only modestly in recent years and it remains particularly low when it comes to
• The Bulgarian Pension System: Caught Between Adequacy and Sustainability: Bulgaria
  • Published: June 24, 2024
  • Summary: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions.
• A Financial Sector for the Economy of the Future: Oman
  • Published: June 12, 2024
  • Summary: Underpinned by Vision 2040, Oman aims to reduce its economic reliance on the hydrocarbon sector by diversifying its economy. Reforms are targeted to develop a well-diversified, private-led, sustainable, and inclusive economy where innovation and knowledge play a more prominent role.
• Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms
  • Published: June 12, 2024
  • Summary: Oman’s potential nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth has trended downward since the global financial crisis, with a negative contribution from total factor productivity.
• Mitigating Fiscal Risks in Oman
  • Published: June 12, 2024
  • Summary: Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fis
• Monetary Policy Transmission in Oman
  • Published: June 12, 2024
  • Summary: Amid a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar and an open capital account, Oman’s policy rates move closely with US monetary policy.
• Climate Change in the WAEMU: Trends, Macro-criticality and Options Going Forward
  • Published: May 16, 2024
  • Summary: This paper focuses on the trends in climate change in the WAEMU, assesses the criticality of climate change for the region, and reviews the related policy and financing options going forward. Climate change has been increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods in the WAEMU.
• Gender Inequality in the WAEMU: Current Situation and Opportunities
  • Published: May 16, 2024
  • Summary: This paper documents the current state of gender inequalities in the WAEMU by focusing on outcomes (health, education, labor market and financial inclusion) and opportunities (economic rights).
• Key Banking System Risks in the WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: May 16, 2024
  • Summary: The gradual alignment of prudential regulations on Basel II/III standards since 2018, as well as improvements in banking supervision and macroprudential surveillance, have contributed to the WAEMU’s banking system’s resilience to recent global and regional shocks.
• Recent Challenges to the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: May 16, 2024
  • Summary: This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market.
• Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU: WAEMU
  • Published: May 16, 2024
  • Summary: Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability.
• 2022 FIFA World Cup: Economic Impact on Qatar and Regional Spillovers
  • Published: February 21, 2024
  • Summary: Qatar hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) successfully and took the opportunity to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy.
• From HydroCarbon to Hightech: Mapping the Economic Transformation of Qatar
  • Published: February 21, 2024
  • Summary: Qatar’s state-led, hydrocarbon intensive growth model has delivered rapid growth and substantial improvements in living standards over the past several decades.
• Macroprudential Policy Calibration for Greece: Simulations for Borrower-Based Measures
  • Published: February 19, 2024
  • Summary: The Greek financial system has remained resilient underpinned by strengthening banks’ balance sheets, but still faces significant challenges ahead including the re-emergence of imbalances in the real estate market.
• Recent Trends of Informality in Greece: Evidence from Subnational Data
  • Published: February 19, 2024
  • Summary: This paper explores the evolution of informality in Greece as it is widely considered one of the major structural impediments to fiscal capacity and sustainable growth.
• The Cost-of-Living Crisis: Impact and Policy Support to Households, Evidence from Micro-Level Data: Greece
  • Published: February 19, 2024
  • Summary: The Greek government has provided substantial support to households to cope with the high cost of living in 2022–2023. This paper leverages on the rich micro-level data on household consumption in the Household Budget Survey to study the distributional impact of price increases.
• Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Strategies: The Gambia
  • Published: February 15, 2024
  • Summary: This paper analyzes The Gambia's vulnerability to climate change, highlighting risks like flooding, droughts, and coastal erosion, which threaten food security and key industries.
• Domestic and External Drivers of Inflation: The Gambia
  • Published: February 15, 2024
  • Summary: This paper investigates the drivers of headline inflation and the degree of exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) in The Gambia over the period 2014-2023.
• Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Gender Gaps: The Gambia
  • Published: February 15, 2024
  • Summary: We present the current status of labor market gender gaps in The Gambia and examine the macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing the gaps. We also study the impacts of high costs of living and the determinants of poverty.
• Corruption and Economic Growth in Moldova: A Reexamination
  • Published: February 9, 2024
  • Summary: This paper examines corruption in Moldova, analyzing its impact on economic growth and progress in implementing earlier IMF recommendations on anti-corruption and anti-money laundering (AML).
• Opportunities and Challenges of Climate Adaptation Policies: Republic of Moldova
  • Published: February 9, 2024
  • Summary: Moldova is more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of Europe, due to its (i) higher sensitivity to changes in climate conditions (reflecting its heavier reliance on agriculture, a comparatively-larger rural population, high dependence on energy imports and limited diversification of energy s
• Policies to Address Climate Change: Ukraine
  • Published: February 5, 2024
  • Summary: While the near-term priorities are national defense and macroeconomic stabilization, gradually incorporating climate change considerations into policy design will become increasingly important after the war and into the long term.
• Fiscal Consolidation in Belgium: How Much and by What Means?
  • Published: December 19, 2023
  • Summary: Belgium is facing higher structural deficits and rising debt after the pandemic and energy crisis. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower inflation, rebuild buffers, reduce debt, and preserve Belgium’s social contract.
• The Fiscal Cost of Aging in Belgium: Pensions and Healthcare
  • Published: December 19, 2023
  • Summary: Belgium faces a fiscal consolidation challenge at a time when the fiscal cost of aging—primarily related to pension and health outlays—is mounting.
• Labor Force Participation in Romania
  • Published: December 13, 2023
  • Summary: Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people.
• Making Romania Fit and Resilient for the Net-Zero Transition
  • Published: December 13, 2023
  • Summary: Romania is on track to become ‘fit for 55’—reducing its absolute emissions by 55 percent (relative to 1990) by 2030, consistent with the European Green Deal.
• Unlocking Tourism Potential for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Dominica
  • Published: August 11, 2023
  • Summary: Tourism is an important driver of Dominica’s economy. The damage of the pandemic on Dominica’s tourism sector was severer than in most regional peers, and the recovery has also been much slower, mostly due to the timing of lockdown restrictions.
• Borrower-Based Macroprudential Instruments in Germany
  • Published: July 24, 2023
  • Summary: Germany’s macroprudential policy toolkit is well-developed, but its key missing piece is a set of instruments related to a borrower’s income. In addition, existing powers to adopt LTV limits have not yet been deployed.
• Impact of High Energy Prices on Germany’s Potential Output
  • Published: July 24, 2023
  • Summary: The surge in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced the energy-intensive sector’s production in Germany, although the non-energy intensive sector’s production has held up thanks in part to firms’ efforts to improve energy efficiency.
• Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali
  • Published: July 19, 2023
  • Summary: Mali is extremely vulnerable to climate change and the country is already facing acute climate-related challenges from higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events.
• Fragility, Demographics, Gender Inequality: Mali
  • Published: July 19, 2023
  • Summary: Mali has many characteristics of a fragile and conflict-affected state. Like many other fragile states, Mali has high population growth, which puts pressure on the country’s resources, including food supplies.
• Governance Diagnostics: Mali
  • Published: July 19, 2023
  • Summary: This SIP provides an overview of the governance diagnostic mission conducted in early 2021 by experts from the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs and Legal Departments, along three main pillars - the rule of law, tax and customs administration, and public financial management.
• Public Sector Wage Bill in Mali
  • Published: July 19, 2023
  • Summary: Mali’s wage bill has soared to levels not seen since the early 1990s. This may cause considerable opportunity costs—limiting fiscal space and potentially adding to inflationary pressures—as well as adversely affect medium-term debt sustainability as it weighs heavily on the primary deficit.
• The Importance and Drivers of Stock-Flow Adjustments in Mali
  • Published: July 19, 2023
  • Summary: Stock-flow adjustments—extra-budgetary and below-the-line operations that do not reflect standard spending and revenue—have added 9 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio in Mali over the past decade. That is just under a third of the total increase in public debt over that period.
• Cancellation of Public Holiday in Denmark
  • Published: July 18, 2023
  • Summary: Denmark cancelled a public holiday to increase labor supply, GDP, and fiscal revenues. This chapter discusses the expected labor supply impact of this change and compares it to alternative options for increasing labor supply.
• Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark
  • Published: July 18, 2023
  • Summary: Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation.
• Enhancing Business Investment in the United Kingdom
  • Published: July 13, 2023
  • Summary: The paper addresses the issue of weak business investment in the United Kingdom (UK) by analyzing aggregate investment trends in the UK and other G7 peers, and investment drivers for UK firms.
• Lessons from the United Kingdom’s Liability – Driven Investment (LDI) Crisis: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 13, 2023
  • Summary: This paper seeks a deeper understanding of the factors that amplified the gilt market turmoil, which ultimately led the Bank of England (BoE) to undertake temporary gilt purchases on financial stability grounds in late September/early October 2022 to restore orderly market conditions and allow Liabi
• The Energy Price Shock—Impact, Policy Responses, and Reform Options: United Kingdom
  • Published: July 13, 2023
  • Summary: The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine inflicted a sharp terms of trade shock on the UK economy. While energy prices have since declined, the future energy price path remains uncertain, with futures-implied prices substantially above their levels prior to October 2021, when Russia
• The Recent Decline in United Kingdom Labor Force Participation: Causes and Potential Remedies
  • Published: July 13, 2023
  • Summary: This paper studies the puzzling decline in labor force participation observed in the UK following the pandemic. Retirement and long-term sickness appear to be the main drivers, with chronic illness remaining a lingering distinctive factor vis-a-vis peer countries.
• Household Vulnerabilities, Financial Stability, and the Role of Policies in Portugal
  • Published: July 11, 2023
  • Summary: Since the pandemic, developments in the real estate market in Portugal suggest that housing vulnerabilities have increased. Rising living costs and interest rates are stretching household finances which could cause an increase in defaults or force households to cut back on consumption.
• Inflation in Portugal: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Risks
  • Published: July 11, 2023
  • Summary: This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022.
• Labor Market and Digitalization in Portugal
  • Published: July 11, 2023
  • Summary: This paper analyzes Portugal's labor market and digitalization trends during COVID-19. Portugal had a milder impact on its labor market than previous recessions, with smaller employment declines and less unemployment.
• Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations: Portugal
  • Published: July 11, 2023
  • Summary: Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022.
• Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus
  • Published: July 7, 2023
  • Summary: Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022.
• Residential Property Price Developments and (Mis)alignments in Cyprus
  • Published: July 7, 2023
  • Summary: Residential house prices in Cyprus show no signs of overvaluation in international comparison, and various indicators confirm that prices are aligned with economic fundamentals. However, still-high household debt poses a risk.
• Public Procurement in South Africa: Issues and Reform Options
  • Published: June 26, 2023
  • Summary: The 2015 Supply Chain Management Review lays out a sound agenda for procurement reform. The ongoing work on a new procurement bill and regulations are an important opportunity to spearhead procurement reform and step-up implementation.
• South Africa Carbon Pricing and Climate Mitigation Policy
  • Published: June 26, 2023
  • Series: Selected Issues Papers
  • Authors: Haonan Qu; Suphachol Suphachalasai; Sneha D Thube; Sébastien Walker
  • Summary: Meeting South Africa’s ambitious climate objectives will require a comprehensive strategy that includes a more effective use of carbon pricing policy, reducing inefficient government subsidies that have delayed the green transition, well-targeted support to affected industries and households, and other green financial and sectoral measures. Implemented well, the mitigation policy package would promote low-carbon investments, raise government revenues, and support economic growth.
• The Link Between Social Grant and Employment in South Africa
  • Published: June 20, 2023
  • Summary: The literature has analyzed the link between social grants, means-tested and unconditional on employment, and employment in South Africa. The country’s social grant expenditure is relatively large amid persistently high unemployment.
• Inflation Dynamics in the West African Economic and Monetary Union: WAEMU
  • Published: June 19, 2023
  • Summary: This paper analyzes recent inflation developments in the WAEMU. As in all inflation spikes in the past two decades, food is the main driver of inflation. The contribution from energy prices is also increasing, while inflation contagion effects are still limited to a few sectors.
• Food Insecurity and Climate Shocks in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
  • Published: June 5, 2023
  • Summary: Food insecurity dramatically increased in Madagascar over the last 10 years, hampering human development. Using most recent data and surveys conducted by UN Agencies and local authorities, this paper analyzes the root causes of food insecurity in Madagascar related to demographic vulnerabilities, mu
• Informality and Growth in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
  • Published: June 5, 2023
  • Summary: This chapter investigates the link between informality and growth in Madagascar and aims for a better understanding of the informal sector. It provides an analysis of the characteristics of informal production units and informal employment.
• Social Spending and Outcomes in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
  • Published: June 5, 2023
  • Summary: The paper examines Madagascar's education, health, and social assistance spending and outcomes. Government spending on education is relatively low compared to peers, and the quality of education has deteriorated.
• A New Growth Engine for Japan: Women in STEM Fields; Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: Despite recent improvements in female labor force participation, women remain underrepresented in STEM fields in Japan. Given the close link between STEM workers and innovation, encouraging women to pursue STEM careers could boost growth potential.
• Drivers of Corporate Cash Holdings in Japan: Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: In Japan, corporate savings have risen since 2000 in line with profits. A large share of the additional savings was kept as cash holdings (i.e., cash and short-term investments) rather than used for investment.
• JGB Yield Curve and Macro-Financial Stability: ow Would a Steeper JGB Yield Curve Affect Bank Profitability? Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: Given that there is exceptionally high uncertainty around the domestic inflation outlook, allowing for greater flexibility in long-term Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could be considered going forward.
• Options to Strengthen the Social Safety Net in Japan: Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: Japan’s unemployment rate remains relatively low compared to other OECD countries. However, Japan’s poverty rate among the working-age population is one of the higher ones among OECD countries.
• Structural Barriers to Wage Income Growth in Japan: Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: Stagnant income growth has limited Japan’s growth potential and reflation efforts. This paper dissects the wage dynamics of different labor groups and identifies the structural barriers to income growth.
• The Financial Impact of Carbon Taxation on Corporates: Japan
  • Published: May 18, 2023
  • Summary: Japan’s commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will likely require substantial carbon pricing. Corporates appear to be able to absorb a sharp increase in carbon taxes on average, but there is a substantial weak tail of firms that could face financial stress.
• Revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Fiscal Framework
  • Published: April 26, 2023
  • Summary: This paper aims to provide a broad perspective on the WAEMU fiscal framework. Based on backward looking exercises and forward looking scenarios, it shows that (i) repeated fiscal slippages and historically large stock flow adjustments contributed to the surge in the WAEMU public debt, and (ii) stock
• Kosovo’s Electricity Sector Challenges and Opportunities: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: April 20, 2023
  • Summary: Since the start of the war in Ukraine, electricity prices in Europe have increased and become more volatile. This coupled with unreliable domestic electricity supply has led to significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget.
• Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: April 20, 2023
  • Summary: Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in
• Tax Revenue Growth and Formalization: Republic of Kosovo
  • Published: April 20, 2023
  • Summary: Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization.
• Sweden’s Corporate Vulnerabilities: A Focus on Commercial Real Estate: SWEDEN
  • Published: March 21, 2023
  • Summary: Commercial Real Estate (CRE) debt constitute a large portion of corporate debt. Due to the funding structure this creates substantial risks for the financial system and the real economy, in general, due to broader spillover effects.
• Assessing Recent Climate Policy Initiatives in the Netherlands: NETHERLANDS
  • Published: March 15, 2023
  • Summary: The Netherlands has committed to the EU’s ambitious targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and emissions neutrality in 2050 but at the same time is also vulnerable to sea-level rise and flood risks.
• Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral: NETHERLANDS
  • Published: March 15, 2023
  • Summary: Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas.
• Housing Supply in the Netherlands: The Road to More Affordable Living: NETHERLANDS
  • Published: March 15, 2023
  • Summary: With the supply of residential dwellings in the Netherlands having failed to live up to demand over the last decade, apprehension among the population about the availability of affordable housing has risen.
• Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Food Supply Matters: Nigeria
  • Published: March 7, 2023
  • Summary: Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies.
• Nigeria—Fostering Financial Inclusion through Digital Financial Services: Nigeria
  • Published: March 7, 2023
  • Summary: Financial inclusion in Nigeria has had undeniable successes, with the onboarding of residents to the banking sector consistently progressing. But the overall exclusion rates continue to exceed official targets, not least due to low financial literacy.
• Nigeria’s Tax Revenue Mobilization: Lessons from Successful Revenue Reform Episodes: Nigeria
  • Published: March 7, 2023
  • Summary: This paper has identified four episodes of large and sustained revenue mobilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and found common lessons from the episodes. Although there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, we can find a tax reform path suitable to Nigeria’s circumstances.
• Fiscal Federalism in Belgium: Challenges in Restoring Fiscal Sustainability Belgium: Belgium
  • Published: March 3, 2023
  • Summary: Fiscal decentralization in Belgium progressed substantially in 2015-19. However, as decentralization of expenditure responsibilities continued to outpace decentralization of revenue authority, vertical fiscal gaps and greater reliance on transfers from shared resources may have reduced spending disc
• Fiscal Policy Options to Accelerate Emissions Reductions in Belgium
  • Published: March 3, 2023
  • Summary: Belgium’s current policies fall short of achieving its climate targets and promoting emissions reductions at limited economic costs.
• Wage Indexation and International Competitiveness in Belgium: An Uneasy Coexistence: Belgium
  • Published: March 3, 2023
  • Summary: Belgium is one of a small group of euro area countries that maintains indexation of wages to inflation as part of its wage setting framework.
• Spending Efficiency and Reforms: France
  • Published: March 1, 2023
  • Summary: To rebuild fiscal buffers after large fiscal responses to successive shocks over 2020-22, France will need to reverse the trend spending increase observed over the last three decades through structural spending reforms.
• Structural Transitions to Electric Vehicle Production: Czech Republic
  • Published: March 1, 2023
  • Summary: Sustaining the impressive convergence gains allowed by the Czech automotive sector has become challenging due to its comparatively lower value added, lower investments in research and development, and lower skills in the labor market.
• Economic Effects of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in Niger: Niger
  • Published: February 28, 2023
  • Summary: Niger’s exposure to recurrent shocks, including climate shocks, increases its vulnerability to food insecurity. This paper aims to quantify the combined effects of climate shocks and food insecurity on key economic variables and identify the most effective mitigation policy responses using a general
• Fostering Export Diversification in Niger: Niger
  • Published: February 28, 2023
  • Summary: This selected issue paper investigates the drivers of diversification and explores the potential for fostering diversification in Niger with a focus on horizontal policies.
• Labor Market Implications for Green Investments and Carbon Pricing in Spain: Spain
  • Published: February 28, 2023
  • Summary: Labor Market Implications for Green Investments and Carbon Pricing in Spain green policies; input-output matrix; employment; occupations; skills ABSTRACT: We provide a tractable framework for assessing the labor market impact of policies that support the green transition of the Spanish economy, taki
• Labor Productivity Dynamics in Spain: A Firm-Level Perspective: Spain
  • Published: February 28, 2023
  • Summary: This paper uses firm-level data that covers over 1.2 million Spanish firms during the period of 2003-2019 to provide an updated assessment of the drivers of labor productivity in the Spanish economy, focusing on both TFP and firm investment.
• Drivers of Inflation: Hungary
  • Published: February 27, 2023
  • Summary: Though high and rising inflation has been a challenge for most economies across Europe in 2022 and into 2023, it has accelerated in Hungary to the highest level in Europe. This paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation.
• Financial Inclusion in Niger: Challenges and Opportunities: Niger
  • Published: February 27, 2023
  • Summary: Financial inclusion can increase economic growth and productivity and reduce poverty and inequality by helping people and firms—particularly SMEs—to save and invest, smooth consumption, and better manage financial risks.
• Hungarian Monetary Policy Operations Before, During, and After the Pandemic: Hungary
  • Published: February 27, 2023
  • Summary: Within its inflation-targeting framework, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) has frequently adjusted its monetary operations. This has raised questions about their internal consistency, appropriateness, and effectiveness.
• Macroeconomic Gains from Closing Gender Educational Gaps in Niger: Niger
  • Published: February 27, 2023
  • Summary: This paper explores the state of gender equality and education attainment of girls in Niger. It also estimates the macroeconomic gains from reducing gaps in education between boys and girls using a micro-founded general equilibrium model.
• The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare: Niger
  • Published: February 27, 2023
  • Summary: As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas.
• The Efficiency of Social Spending in Niger: Niger
  • Published: February 13, 2023
  • Summary: Despite some progress, poverty remains elevated and education and health outcomes are lagging. This paper finds evidence of inefficiencies in education, health, and social protection spending in Niger.
• Labor Market Implications for Green Investments and Carbon Pricing in Spain: Spain
  • Published: January 20, 2023
  • Summary: We provide a tractable framework for assessing the labor market impact of policies that support the green transition of the Spanish economy, taking into account input-output linkages.
• Labor Productivity Dynamics in Spain: A Firm-Level Perspective: Spain
  • Published: January 20, 2023
  • Summary: This paper uses firm-level data that covers over 1.2 million Spanish firms during the period of 2003-2019 to provide an updated assessment of the drivers of labor productivity in the Spanish economy, focusing on both TFP and firm investment.
• Addressing Fiscal Pressures: Kingdom of Lesotho
  • Published: December 7, 2022
  • Summary: Lesotho’s fiscal situation is challenging. This paper assesses the pressure points of main components of revenues, current spending, and capital spending, and then proposes a growth-friendly consolidation plan while protecting the vulnerable.
• Evaluating Fiscal Rules for Lesotho: Kingdom of Lesotho
  • Published: December 7, 2022
  • Summary: A key challenge for Lesotho is the downward rigidity in public expenditure—which increases when SACU transfers are buoyant but fails to be pared back when they fall.
• Policy Coordination in Lesotho: Kingdom of Lesotho
  • Published: December 7, 2022
  • Summary: In a country such as Lesotho with high capital mobility and leakages abroad, the relationship between both fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy is intertwined, such that public spending and reserves are strongly linked.