The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

Author/Editor:

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Publication Date:

September 1, 1998

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/133

Subject:

Agricultural commodities Capital spending Commodities Environment Expenditure Macrostructural analysis Natural resources Public investment spending Structural reforms

English

Publication Date:

September 1, 1998

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451855463/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1331998

Pages:

36

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