The Persistence of Capital Account Crises

Author/Editor:

Mauro Mecagni ; Ruben V Atoyan ; David J Hofman

Publication Date:

May 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.

Series:

Working Paper No. 09/103

Subject:

Frequency:

Monthly

English

Publication Date:

May 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451872507/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009103

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

28

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