Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data
IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2012
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- Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: S. V. S. Dixit, Maxwell Opoku-Afari
- Published: May 1, 2012
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475503487.001
Summary
- Objective: construct an aggregate and comprehensive index of economic activity for low-income countries (LICs) using routinely collected high-frequency data.
- Intended uses:
- (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity;
- (ii) as an input for analyzing contemporaneous real sector performance in LICs when high-frequency GDP data are absent or outdated.
- Policy relevance: a tool for policymakers to gauge short-term dynamics of economic activity and shape appropriate and timely policy responses.
Methodology and Data
- Approach: combine a set of routinely collected high-frequency indicators into an aggregate index of economic activity.
- Target context: low-income countries (LICs) lacking high-frequency, up-to-date GDP statistics.
- Indicators referenced by subject and keywords: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Taxes, Value-added tax, CIEA Index, CIEA series, GDP estimate, high-frequency GDP, interpolated GDP, Short-Term Dynamics.
Key Findings and Contributions
- Produces an aggregate and comprehensive index that tracks the direction of economic activity in LICs.
- Provides a contemporaneous measure useful when official GDP data are outdated or available only at low frequency.
- Enhances the ability to analyze short-term real sector performance in LICs.
Policy Recommendations and Uses
- Use the index as a monitoring tool to detect short-term changes in economic activity.
- Inform timely policy responses based on high-frequency signals derived from routinely collected data.
- Support macroeconomic analysis and decision-making in environments with limited GDP data.
Content in this bundle
- 1. Optimality Test