LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics

IMF Working Papers, November 16, 2017

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LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Geoffrey J Bannister, Manuk Ghazanchyan, Theodore Pierre Bikoi
• Published: November 16, 2017
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484325742.001

Overview

• Purpose: Assess external trade statistics in Lao PDR using mirror statistics and international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data.
• Method: Comparison of reported Lao PDR trade data with partner-reported (mirror) statistics and reference to international compilation/dissemination practices.
• Note: Possible sources and implications of discrepancies are discussed in the paper.

Key findings

• Exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent.
• Imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent.
• The trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher.
• Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners:
  • Thailand (17 percent of total trade)
  • China (10 percent of total trade)
  • Vietnam (3 percent of total trade)

Sectoral concentration of underreporting

• Exports:
  • Underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products.
• Imports:
  • Underreporting is concentrated across a wider variety of products, including:
  • food
  • fuel
  • vehicles
  • machinery
  • chemical products
  • plastics and rubber
  • construction materials

Analysis and implications

• The magnitude of underreporting implies substantial distortions in the reported external trade position of Lao PDR, with the trade deficit potentially much larger than official figures indicate.
• Concentration of underreporting in major partners and specific product categories points to targeted areas for data verification and improvement.
• The paper discusses possible sources of discrepancies and their implications for trade statistics compilation and policy analysis.

Content in this bundle

• LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics, WP/17/251, November 2017
  • LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics, WP/17/251, November 2017 (Markdown version)
  • LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics, WP/17/251, November 2017 (PDF)