IMF Working Papers

Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

By Bertrand Gruss, Malhar S Nabar, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

March 12, 2018

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Bertrand Gruss, Malhar S Nabar, and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro. Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed December 3, 2024

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Summary

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.

Subject: Commodity prices, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, International trade, National accounts, Personal income, Prices, Purchasing power parity, Terms of trade

Keywords: Caribbean, Commodity exporter, Commodity prices, Developing Economies, Economic Growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Emerging market and developing economies, Emerging Markets, External Conditions, Gaps narrow, Global, Growth pattern, Growth rate, Income gap, Income level, Medium-term growth, Middle East, North Africa, Oil-importing EMDEs, Personal income, Purchasing power parity, Real GDP, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, Terms of trade shock, Terms-of-trade windfall, Trading partner, Windfall gain, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    39

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

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  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2018/052

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2018052

  • ISBN:

    9781484345450

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941