Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions
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Summary:
This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2018/052
Subject:
Commodity prices Emerging and frontier financial markets Financial markets Foreign exchange International trade National accounts Personal income Prices Purchasing power parity Terms of trade
English
Publication Date:
March 12, 2018
ISBN/ISSN:
9781484345450/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2018052
Pages:
39
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