Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions
IMF Working Papers, March 12, 2018
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar S Nabar, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
- Published: March 12, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484345450.001
Research focus and scope
- Investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
- Examines the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals.
- Publication details:
- By Bertrand Gruss, Malhar S Nabar, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
- March 12, 2018
- Pages: 39
- Series: Working Paper No. 2018/052
- Issue: 052
- Volume: 2018
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484345450.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2018052
- ISBN: 9781484345450
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key findings
- The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time.
- The growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14.
- Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations.
- A strengthening of any of the three external conditions (external demand, external financial conditions, terms of trade) significantly decreases the probability of growth reversals.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Commodity prices, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Foreign exchange, International trade, National accounts, Personal income, Prices, Purchasing power parity, Terms of trade
- Keywords: Caribbean, commodity exporter, Commodity prices, Developing Economies, Economic Growth, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market and developing economies, Emerging Markets, External Conditions, gaps narrow, Global, growth pattern, growth rate, income gap, income level, medium-term growth, Middle East, North Africa, oil-importing EMDEs, Personal income, Purchasing power parity, real GDP, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, terms of trade shock, terms-of-trade windfall, trading partner, windfall gain, WP
Summary conclusion
- Country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade are important determinants of medium-term growth dynamics in EMDEs, with external financial conditions playing an increasingly large role in observed gains in average income per capita growth over the periods 1995–2004 and 2005–14.
IMF Working Papers. Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions. March 12, 2018.