The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?

Author/Editor:

Christian Bogmans ; Andrea Pescatori ; Ivan Petrella ; Ervin Prifti ; Martin Stuermer

Publication Date:

April 16, 2024

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper establishes supply and demand elasticities for a broad set of commodities based on a consistent dataset and identification methodology. We apply granular IV methods to a new cross-country panel dataset of commodity production and consumption from 1960-2021. The results indicate that commodity demand and supply are typically price inelastic. Demand and supply tend to be the most inelastic for minerals, whereas they are most elastic for agricultural commodities. The elasticities of energy commodities fall somewhere in between. Supply and demand become more elastic at longer time horizons for mineral and energy commodities, but not for most agricultural commodities.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2024/077

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

April 16, 2024

ISBN/ISSN:

9798400271953/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2024077

Format:

Paper

Pages:

27

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