Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 19, 2018
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- Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 19, 2018
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484368961.002
Scope and methodology
- Focus: long-term impact of Brexit on the European Union (EU).
- Coverage: consequences of Brexit on the EU27 under various post-Brexit scenarios.
- Approaches: uses two different complementary approaches.
Key findings
- Brexit would have negative effects on the EU27, given the depth and the complexity of the EU-U.K. integration.
- The estimated long-term output and employment losses (in percent) for the EU27 in the study are on average lower than the corresponding losses for the UK estimated in the literature.
- Estimated maximum long-run losses under a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario:
- Level of output: fall at most by up to 1.5 percent.
- Level of employment: fall at most by up to 0.7 percent.
- A “soft” Brexit outcome would lead to much lower losses.
Themes and topics analyzed
- Trade integration: EU-U.K. trade integration and its disruption.
- Labor market: employment, employment growth, labor force, unemployment, unemployment rate, youth employment, U.K. migrant job prospects.
- Broader context: implications for the euro area and global linkages.
Source: "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues", IMF Staff Country Reports 2018, 224 (2018).