Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes

March 20, 2019

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Format: Chicago

Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2019) accessed July 20, 2025

Summary

This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.

Subject: Asset and liability management, Banking, Currencies, Debt limits, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Money, Oil prices, Prices, Public debt

Keywords: CR, Currencies, Debt, Debt limits, Deposit, Ecuador, EMBI spread, Fiscal stance, Global, IMF debt statistics, Investment fund share, ISCR, Oil prices, Opening EM account, Term EM

Publication Details

Pages:

69
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2019/080
Stock No:

1ECUEA2019002
ISBN:

9781498303675
ISSN:

1934-7685

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