Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices


Aasim M. Husain ; Rabah Arezki ; Peter Breuer ; V. Haksar ; Thomas Helbling ; Paulo A Medas ; Martin Sommer

Publication Date:

July 14, 2015

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.


The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.


Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/015



Publication Date:

July 14, 2015



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