Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap
IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2004
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- Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Andreas Billmeier
- Published: April 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847802.001
Summary and purpose
- The output gap—which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential—is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy.
- This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods and evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation.
- The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.
Main findings
- Only two gap measures perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation:
- A frequency domain approach.
- The Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition.
- Neither of these two gap measures improves upon a simple autoregressive forecast for CPI inflation.
- The volatility of Finnish output leads to considerable uncertainty in estimating potential output and the output gap.
Methods evaluated
- Frequency domain approach (one of the two gap measures that outperforms the naïve inflation prediction).
- Blanchard-Quah decomposition (BQ output gap).
- Hodrick-Prescott (HP) estimation approach (listed among keywords; evaluated as part of the set of empirical methods).
- Other empirical methods for output-gap estimation (paper compares multiple approaches against economic history and forecasting performance).
Evaluation framework
- Simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation used to evaluate gap measures.
- Comparison against:
- Naïve prediction of no change in inflation.
- Simple autoregressive forecast for inflation.
Implications and interpretation
- Forecasting performance indicates limited practical forecasting gain from complex output-gap measures relative to simple autoregressive models of inflation.
- High output volatility raises substantial uncertainty about both the magnitude and the sign of estimated output gaps in Finland, complicating policy interpretation.
Metadata and classification
- Subject: Inflation, Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity, Unemployment rate
- Keywords: BQ output gap, Finland, HP estimation approach, Inflation, inflation forecasting, output gap, output gap estimate, output gap estimation method, output gap measure, potential output, real GDP, Total factor productivity, Unemployment rate, WP
- Pages: 36
- Volume: 2004
- Issue: 057
- Series: Working Paper No. 2004/057
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847802.001
- Stock No: WPIEA0572004
- ISBN: 9781451847802
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Author: Andreas Billmeier
- Date: April 1, 2004
IMF Working Paper No. 2004/057, Andreas Billmeier, April 1, 2004.