Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them

Author/Editor:

Mick Silver

Publication Date:

April 1, 2006

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2006/097

Subject:

Consumer price indexes Deflation Inflation Inflation targeting Price indexes

English

Publication Date:

April 1, 2006

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451863574/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2006097

Pages:

58

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