Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession

By Kei-Mu Yi, Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson

June 1, 2010

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Kei-Mu Yi, Rudolfs Bems, and Robert C. Johnson Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed November 8, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging Europe, and Asia hit hardest. Allowing demand to change in all countries simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results.

Subject: Demand elasticity, Exports, Imports, North American Free Trade Agreement, Trade in goods

Keywords: Demand change, Durable goods, Mover accent, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

45
Volume:

---
DOI:

---
Issue:

---
Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/142
Stock No:

WPIEA2010142
ISBN:

9781455201259
ISSN:

1018-5941

FACTSHEETS

RESOURCES

TOPICS

Flagship Publications

Other Publications

IMF reports and publications by country

Regional Offices

All News

See Also

For Journalists

Press Center

RESOURCES

FLAGSHIPS

KEY SERIES

IMF NOTES

IMF Working Papers