IMF Working Papers

Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

By Marcos d Chamon, Michael R Kremer

January 1, 2006

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Marcos d Chamon, and Michael R Kremer. Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2006) accessed November 8, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.

Subject: Demographic change, Migration, National accounts, Personal income, Population and demographics, Population growth

Keywords: Advanced country, Demographic change, Developing country labor, Economic development, Export opportunity, Global, Growth, Growth determinant, Growth response, International trade, Migration, Personal income, Population, Population growth, Small country, Transaction cost, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    20

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2006/021

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2006021

  • ISBN:

    9781451862812

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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