Revenue Forecasting—How is it done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries

February 1, 2005

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Format: Chicago

Annette J Kyobe, and Stephan Danninger. Revenue Forecasting—How is it done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2005) accessed November 8, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Personal income, Revenue forecasting

Keywords: Country practice, Forecasting agency, Forecasting practice, Forecasting process, Revenue forecast, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

22
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2005/024
Stock No:

WPIEA2005024
ISBN:

9781451860436
ISSN:

1018-5941

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