IMF Working Papers

The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring

By Padamja Khandelwal, Agustin Roitman

March 13, 2013

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Padamja Khandelwal, and Agustin Roitman. The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed November 8, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

Subject: Balance of payments, Current account deficits, Exchange rate flexibility, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Prices, Real effective exchange rates

Keywords: Africa, Arab Countries in Transition, Arab Spring, Country indices, Currency depreciation, Current account, Current account balance, Current account deficits, Deficit, E. exchange rates, Eastern Europe, Economic growth, Exchange rate flexibility, Fiscal stance, Global, Government, Government crisis, IMF staff projection, Inflation, Inflation development, PI episode, Political instability, Real effective exchange rates, Regime change, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    13

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2013/069

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2013069

  • ISBN:

    9781475569643

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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