Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries

IMF Working Papers, September 11, 2017

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Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, Rohini Ray
• Published: September 11, 2017
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314203.001

Overview

• More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF).
• This working paper focuses on the performance of MTBFs in six countries: Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.
• It assesses effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving:
  • improved fiscal discipline,
  • resource allocation,
  • certainty of funding,
  • wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment.
• Authors: Richard I Allen, Taz Chaponda, Lesley Fisher, Rohini Ray
• Date: September 11, 2017

Key findings on MTBF performance

• Early successes in many countries were not sustained.
• Budgetary outcomes did not improve in most countries.
• Contributing factors to weak outcomes included:
  • poor data,
  • inadequate forecasting methodologies,
  • reforms that were largely supply driven.

Phases of MTBF development

• The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases.
• Transitioning from one phase to the next requires:
  • building capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis,
  • improving the credibility of the annual budget process.

Policy recommendations and focus areas

• Develop capacity in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis.
• Improve credibility of the annual budget process to support MTBF evolution.
• Address technical weaknesses such as data quality and forecasting methodologies.
• Ensure reforms are demand driven and integrated with broader PFM processes to sustain early gains.

Subjects and keywords

• Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, Public financial management (PFM)
• Keywords: Africa, budget, budget framework, budget office, Budget planning and preparation, budget preparation process, budget review process, case country, challenge function, country, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Medium-term budget frameworks, medium-term expenditure frameworks, PFM system, program budget, public financial management, sub-Saharan Africa, WP

Content in this bundle

• Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa, WP/17/203, September 2017
  • Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa, WP/17/203, September 2017 (Markdown version)
  • Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa, WP/17/203, September 2017 (PDF)