Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States

Author/Editor:

Sophia Chen ; Deniz O Igan ; Nicola Pierri ; Andrea F Presbitero

Publication Date:

July 10, 2020

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.

Series:

Working Paper No. 20/125

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

July 10, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513549644/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020125

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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