Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities
IMF Working Papers, September 25, 2020
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- Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yuko Hashimoto, Gee Hee Hong, Xiaoxiao Zhang
- Published: September 25, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557700.001
Summary findings
- There exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change.
- The decline in housing prices associated with population losses is estimated to be larger than the rise in prices associated with population increases.
- Population losses have been and are projected to be more acute in rural areas than urban areas in Japan.
- The on-going demographic transition in Japan could worsen regional disparities, as falling house prices in rural areas could intensify population outflows.
- Policy measures to promote more even population growth across regions, and avoid the over-supply of houses, are critical to stabilize house prices with a shrinking population.
Analysis and mechanism
- The asymmetry in price responses is driven by the durability of housing structures.
- Durable housing stock implies that population declines produce larger negative price adjustments than the positive adjustments produced by population increases.
Policy recommendations
- Promote more even population growth across regions to mitigate regional disparities in housing markets.
- Avoid the over-supply of houses to stabilize house prices amid a shrinking population.
Key statistics and publication metadata
- Authors: Yuko Hashimoto, Gee Hee Hong, Xiaoxiao Zhang
- Publication date: September 25, 2020
- Pages: 34
- Volume: 2020
- Issue: 200
- Series: Working Paper No. 2020/200
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557700.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2020200
- ISBN: 9781513557700
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Citation preview (Chicago): Yuko Hashimoto, Gee Hee Hong, and Xiaoxiao Zhang. "Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities", IMF Working Papers 2020, 200 (2020), accessed 7/4/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557700.001
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Housing, Housing prices, Inflation, National accounts, Population and demographics, Population growth, Prices
- Keywords: akiya (vacant houses), condominium price, durable housing model, house, house price, house prices, Housing, housing price, Housing prices, Inflation, population change, Population growth, price, price appreciation, price change, price decline, price dynamics, regional disparity, WP
Source: IMF Working Paper "Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities" (September 25, 2020).
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- Working Paper