Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives
IMF Working Papers, November 8, 2020
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- Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov
- Published: November 8, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001
Key findings
- Four major growth narratives are identified using text analytics of IMF country reports over 1978-2019.
- The narrative “Economic Structure” (services, manufacturing, and agriculture) has been on a secular decline.
- The narrative “Structural Reforms” (competitiveness, transparency, and governance) has overshadowed “Economic Structure.”
- The “Washington Consensus” (privatization and liberalization) exhibited a rise and fall pattern.
- The “Washington Constellation,” a collection of disparate terms such as productivity, tourism, and inequality, has risen to dominance.
- Growth theory concepts such as innovation, technology, and export policy have been marginal.
- Industrial policy, once perceived positively, is making a comeback.
Narratives identified
- Economic Structure: services, manufacturing, agriculture.
- Structural Reforms: competitiveness, transparency, governance.
- Washington Consensus: privatization, liberalization.
- Washington Constellation: productivity, tourism, inequality, and many disparate terms.
Trends over time
- Analysis period: 1978-2019.
- Secular decline observed for the Economic Structure narrative across the sample.
- Ascendancy of Structural Reforms relative to Economic Structure.
- Rise and subsequent decline of the Washington Consensus narrative.
- Growth in prevalence and dominance of the Washington Constellation terms.
- Marginal occurrence of classical growth-theory vocabulary (innovation, technology, export policy).
- Re-emergence of industrial policy terminology after a period of lower prominence.
Implications and policy considerations
- Shifts in dominant narratives reflect changing emphases in policy advice and diagnostics across IMF country reports.
- The dominance of plural and disparate terms (Washington Constellation) suggests diffusion of growth discourse beyond single coherent prescriptions.
- The marginal role of explicit growth-theory terms (innovation, technology, export policy) indicates areas where technical discourse may be underrepresented in country reports.
- The comeback of industrial policy terminology points to renewed policy interest and potential re-evaluation of previously sidelined instruments.
Additional metadata (as reported in the source)
- Authors: Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov
- Date: November 8, 2020
- Pages: 28
- Series: Working Paper No. 2020/228
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001
Source: Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives, Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov, November 8, 2020, IMF Working Papers No. 2020/228.
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