Social Repercussions of Pandemics

IMF Working Papers, January 29, 2021

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Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest.
Epidemics may also have a mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities.
Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, the authors find:
- A positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics.
- The relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run.
Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence.
It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.

Data: A new monthly panel on social unrest covering 130 countries.
Empirical patterns:
- Cross-sectional analysis shows a positive association between epidemics and social unrest.
- Short-run (temporal) analysis shows a reversal of this relationship, consistent with short-run mitigation through reduced social activity.

Short-term scenario:
- Mitigating effects dominate; epidemics suppress social unrest by dissuading social activities.
Medium-to-long-term scenario:
- Social scarring can increase the likelihood of social unrest; as pandemics fade, preexisting unrest may reemerge.
Recent COVID-19 observations align with the historical patterns identified in the study.