Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

IMF Working Papers, August 20, 2021

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Canonical URL: Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries.
Motivations:
- Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade.
- Pacific islands are highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains.
Intended uses:
- Complement and help fill gaps in official data.
- Provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity.
- Assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).

Uses satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform.
Algorithmic advances relative to previous studies include:
- Employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads.
- Using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls.
- Applying country-specific information to define port boundaries.
Constructs daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries.

The approach produces daily indicators of port and trade activity that can:
- Complement official trade statistics.
- Provide early signals of economic turning points.
- Help monitor disruptions to supply chains and port activity arising from shocks such as natural disasters and COVID-19.

Practical uses for policymakers and international organizations:
- Monitor and provide timely responses to shocks affecting ports and supply chains.
- Use vessel-based daily indicators to detect early warning signs of declines or disruptions in merchandise trade.
The method is positioned as a tool to aid monitoring in contexts where official data are limited or delayed.