Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author/Editor:

Maximilien Queyranne ; Daniel Baksa ; Vassili Bazinas ; Azhin Abdulkarim

Publication Date:

October 21, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/249

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

October 21, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781589067264/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021249

Pages:

37

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