IMF Working Papers

Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties

By Ha Nguyen

June 30, 2023

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Format: Chicago

Ha Nguyen. Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2023) accessed November 8, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Using quarterly temperature and employment data between 1990 and 2021, this paper uncovers nuanced evidence on the impact of seasonal temperature within US counties: higher winter temperature increases private sector employment growth while higher summer temperature decreases it. The impacts of higher temperature in mild seasons, fall and spring, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, the negative impact of higher summer temperature persists while the positive impact of higher temperature in the winter is more short-lived. The negative effects of a hotter summer are pervasive and persistent in many sectors: most significantly in “Construction” and “Leisure and Hospitality” but also in “Trade, Transport, and Utilities” and “Financial Activities.” In contrast, the positive effects of a warmer winter are less pervasive. The employment effect of a hotter summer has been more severe in recent decades.

Subject: Climate change, Employment, Environment, Labor, Natural disasters, Production, Productivity

Keywords: Climate change, County employment weight, Employment, Employment effect, Employment growth, Global, Growth data, Natural disasters, Productivity, Summer temperature, Temperature, US counties

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    34

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2023/142

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2023142

  • ISBN:

    9798400244780

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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