Intergenerational-Social-Mobility-Africa-Ouedraogo-Syrichas

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Over the past two decades, the size of Africa’s economy, as a whole, increased by 50 percent in contrast to a world average of 23 percent.
According to the World Bank (2020), the poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa has not fallen fast enough to keep up with population growth, and 433 million Africans were estimated to be living in extreme poverty in 2018, up from 284 million in 1990.
The study addresses how evenly the benefits of economic progress have been shared and focuses on intergenerational social mobility as an indicator of a fair and fluid society.

Analysis based on a new data set of 72 million individuals since 1920.
Intergenerational mobility in educational and occupational attainment constructed by linking parents to children in the same household in a set of 28 African countries.
Educational and occupational attainment used as proxies for living standard where labor earnings data across generations are scarce.

Children of both sexes born in the mid-1990s to illiterate parents had a 60 percent likelihood of completing primary school; those born in the mid-1940s had a 20 percent probability.
Four out of five children whose parents work in one of the traditional low-skill agricultural sectors are likely to follow in their parents’ footsteps across gender and all birth cohorts.
Joint upward mobility in education and occupation has declined over younger cohorts, indicating a declining occupational reward (premium) from better education.
The probability that a child with upgraded educational attainment will experience downward mobility in occupation has increased over time.
Disaggregated patterns:
- In Botswana and South Africa, 75 percent of children achieve higher literacy status than their uneducated parents.
- That figure is less than 20 percent in Ethiopia and Mozambique.
- In occupational status, half of the children born in Botswana and South Africa surpass that of their farmer parents.
- In Ethiopia and Mozambique, only a handful of children born to farmers end up in a higher-status profession.
Children born in rural areas have a significantly lower probability of upward mobility in education and occupation than peers born in urban areas.
In many African countries, a conspicuous gender wedge appears to narrow over generations.

Positively associated with upward intergenerational mobility:
- Access to electricity
- Access to water
Negatively associated with upward mobility:
- Higher fertility
- Rural residence
- Child marriage
- Conflicts
- Natural resource endowment
Differences in mobility across countries could reflect disparities in:
- Public education spending
- Institutions’ quality
- Social protection coverage
Additional explanatory factors cited include market and policy failures, absence of labor opportunities, and school quality.

First: Place of birth significantly affects future socioeconomic status; regional differences primarily reflect differences in labor markets and secondarily educational opportunities. Targeted policies are essential to tackle the rural-urban divide, narrow the gender gap, and shrink regional inequalities. Sustaining education spending and investing in human and physical capital are critical.
Second: Opportunities in education and occupation are persistently low for children in households without access to basic infrastructure—electricity and water. Investment in basic infrastructure could enhance education and employment and help lift households out of poverty.
Third: Good governance and social policies can create educational and employment opportunities. Promoting good governance and enacting policies to extend social protection coverage and reduce the risk of violent conflict are critical predictors of social mobility.

Policy priorities highlighted:
- Target rural-urban disparities and regional inequalities.
- Narrow gender gaps across cohorts.
- Sustain education spending and invest in human and physical capital.
- Expand access to basic infrastructure (electricity and water).
- Strengthen governance, social protection coverage, and conflict prevention.
Risks to social mobility:
- The current difficult macroeconomic conditions, sizable job loss, and closures of schools following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic could worsen social mobility in Africa and widen existing gaps.

F&D Magazine — “Intergenerational Social Mobility in Africa,” Nicolas Syrichas and Rasmane Ouedraogo, September 2021.