Climate Economist
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Climate Economist
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: BOB SIMISON
- Published: September 2, 2021
Overview
- Profile of Solomon Hsiang, director of the Global Policy Laboratory and leader of the Climate Impact Lab, who applies large datasets, econometrics, and advanced computing to climate change, pandemics, and related policy questions.
- Emphasizes Hsiang’s role in transforming economic research through interdisciplinary teams and "big data" approaches, and his view that climate change is the fundamental 21st century challenge.
Methodology and research approach
- Leverages newly available giant databases, massive modern computing power, and large interdisciplinary teams (economists, climate scientists, data engineers, risk analysts).
- Uses econometric analysis of weather, climate, and economic data at local levels to quantify impacts on agriculture, energy, labor, health, crime, mortality, and coastal communities.
- Publishes rapid-response empirical studies (example: COVID-19 anti-contagion policy study produced within 10 days by Hsiang and 14 researchers).
Key findings and research outputs
- COVID-19 anti-contagion policies: estimated to have averted 495 million infections; paper appeared June 8, 2020, in Nature; accessed 309,000 times and cited by 361 news outlets (according to Nature).
- Temperature and economic output: master’s-thesis finding published August 2010 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed each 1ºC increase in surface temperature associated with a 2.5 percent reduction in economic output (data from 28 countries in Central America and the Caribbean, 1970 through 2006).
- Broader findings by Hsiang and collaborators include:
- Rising temperatures increase civil conflict and slow economic growth.
- Intensifying tropical storms produce more severe and longer-lasting economic effects.
- Solar geoengineering (mimicking volcanic eruptions to dim the sun) would reduce global crop yields.
- 2019 Congressional testimony: direct thermal effects of warming over the next 80 years could reduce American incomes by $4.7 trillion to $10.4 trillion; combined effects could cost the United States 1.2 percent of gross domestic product for each 1ºC increase in temperature, with significant increases in death rates, suicides, sexual assaults, murders, and birth-related harm.
- Social cost of carbon emphasis:
- World emits more than 30 billion tons of CO2 per year (International Energy Agency).
- CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for 1,000 years.
- Historical US government estimates: 2010 Obama administration figure $51 a ton; Trump administration figure $7 a ton.
- Some researchers argue the social cost of carbon should be at least $125 a ton.
Policy relevance and applications
- Hsiang’s work has been cited by: the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office, the Environmental Protection Agency, the United Nations, the Bank of England, and the IMF.
- After the June 2020 COVID study, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention engaged Hsiang’s group to analyze a global disease-control policy database.
- Climate Impact Lab outputs used by US states and cities for planning (e.g., factory siting, hurricane preparation).
- Hsiang argues for data-based, transparent, evidence-driven systems to guide climate and planetary-resource policy decisions, while cautioning against overspending on climate change mitigation that would misallocate resources.
Projects, teams, and timelines
- Climate Impact Lab:
- Originated from the 2015 book Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus (12 authors including Hsiang).
- Described as a six-year-old research consortium led by Hsiang, Michael Greenstone, Robert Kopp, and Trevor Houser.
- Deploys more than 30 researchers across Berkeley, the University of Chicago, and Rutgers, and relies on Rhodium Group’s computing power.
- Hsiang projects that the Climate Impact Lab will publish the initial version of its calculation of the global cost of carbon within a year.
- Academic progression:
- Earned doctorate from Columbia; postdoctoral work at Princeton and National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Assistant professorship at Berkeley: won tenure within two years and promotion to full professor in five (at the age of 34).
Critiques and debates
- Richard Tol (University of Sussex) criticizes Hsiang’s use of weather shocks to study climate change, arguing that weather shocks are unexpected while climate change is slow and predictable, which Tol says leads to overstated impacts.
- Some economists (Joseph Stiglitz and Nicholas Stern) argue that calculating a precise social cost of carbon may be unnecessary for certain policy choices, advocating instead policies built around Paris Agreement goals.
- Hsiang responds that innovations to study adaptation and granular empirical methods address such critiques and that policymakers need data-based findings.
Selected numeric highlights
- 495 million infections averted (COVID-19 anti-contagion policies study).
- June 8, 2020: Nature paper publication date (COVID-19 study).
- 309,000 accesses and 361 news-outlet citations (Nature reported counts for the COVID paper).
- 37-year-old (Hsiang’s age as described in the profile).
- 1ºC temperature increase associated with a 2.5 percent reduction in economic output (master’s thesis finding).
- 28 countries, 1970 through 2006 (data range for the master’s thesis analysis).
- 712-page (The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review length).
- $4.7 trillion to $10.4 trillion (projected reduction in American incomes from direct thermal effects of warming over the next 80 years).
- 1.2 percent of gross domestic product for each 1ºC increase in temperature (combined effects estimate for the United States).
- World emits more than 30 billion tons of CO2 per year; CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for 1,000 years.
- US social cost of carbon historical values: $51 a ton (2010 Obama administration); $7 a ton (Trump administration); at least $125 a ton (position argued by some researchers).
- Six-year-old (age of the Climate Impact Lab at time of profile).
- More than 30 researchers (Climate Impact Lab staffing).
- Age 34 (Hsiang reached full professor at this age).
- Tenure within two years; promotion to full professor in five (Berkeley academic timeline).
- Initial global cost of carbon calculation to be published within a year (Climate Impact Lab projection).
Profile source: F&D Magazine, “Solomon Hsiang: Climate Economist,” Bob Simison, September 2021.
Content in this bundle
- شخصيات اقتصادية - خبير الاقتصاد المناخي
- Berkeley’s Solomon Hsiang: Climate Economist – IMF F&D
- Economista del clima ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Septiembre de 2021
- L’économiste du climat
- Экономист-климатолог
- 经济学人物 - 气候经济学家 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 2021年9月号·第58卷·第3期