Low-Income Countries

IMF Photo/Esther Ruth Mbabazi; September 2021; Kampala, Uganda


Support for LICs

IMF Lending News

Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Enhancing Countries' Preparedness, WGS-Dubai, UAE
February 3, 2026

It is a pleasure for me to join His Excellency, Minister Al Hussaini in welcoming you to this important dialogue here in the United Arab Emirates—a fast-growing global AI hub. A recent Microsoft study reports that 64 percent of the UAE’s working age population uses AI, which is the highest rate globally.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Poland
February 3, 2026

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the Republic of Poland, considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.

Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Tenth Annual Arab Fiscal Forum: From Resilience to Renewal: A Fiscal Vision For the Next Decade
February 2, 2026

Assalamu alaikum. Thank you, Minister Al Hussaini, for your gracious hospitality. I salute the United Arab Emirates for its steadfast commitment to fostering dialogue and cooperation across the region.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Bangladesh
January 30, 2026

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Bangladesh on January 26, 2026. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Palau
January 30, 2026

On January 26, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Republic of Palau. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.

IMF Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Mission to the Federated States of Micronesia
January 30, 2026

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Dinar Prihardini conducted discussions for the 2026 Article IV consultation with the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) from January 15 to 28

Blogs

Global Economy Shakes Off Tariff Shock Amid Tech-Driven Boom
January 19, 2026

But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time

New Skills and AI Are Reshaping the Future of Work
January 14, 2026

Policy choices will determine whether workers and firms are adequately prepared for the AI revolution

Top 10 Blogs of 2025
December 29, 2025

Debt, Stablecoins, AI, and Global Economy’s New Era Drew Blog Readers

Top Five IMF Blog Charts of 2025
December 22, 2025

Chart of the Week visuals illustrate major developments during a year of uncertainty and resilience

How Stablecoins Can Improve Payments and Global Finance
December 4, 2025

New technology can foster innovation and financial inclusion, or cause fragmentation and turbulence in many countries

Better Economic Measurement Is About Wiser Use, Not Just More Data
December 3, 2025

Statistics are a means, not an end, that should serve the public by helping us see the world more clearly and make better decisions

Policy Papers

CD Guidance Note
February 2, 2026

This CD Guidance Note provides a one-stop source of information and reference materials on Fund CD-related policies, practices, and procedures. In line with the Management Implementation Plan (MIP) on the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) 2022 Evaluation of CD, this Guidance Note supersedes the 2019 IMF Policies and Practices on Capacity Development and serves to operationalize the recommendations of the 2024 CDSR. It also integrates relevant earlier guidance to staff related to CD delivery and management.

Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes - Operational Guidance Note
January 16, 2026

This note provides guidance to country teams on the application of Fund policies and procedures related to data provision to the Fund for surveillance purposes. It provides staff with clear procedures and practical tools for the assessment of data adequacy and guidance on the Fund’s collaborative framework to identify and address data shortcomings, hampering surveillance and support members’ data production and provision capacity. The note operationalizes recent Board reviews of the policies on data provision to the Fund and data adequacy that strengthen the Fund’s ability to conduct robust and evenhanded surveillance by ensuring that data provision keeps pace with evolving analytical and policy needs.

The 2025 Review of The Short-Term Liquidity Line
December 17, 2025

The Short-term Liquidity Line (SLL), introduced in 2020, was designed as a revolving liquidity backstop for countries with very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks. It aims to address short-term, moderate balance of payments needs arising from capital flow volatility, helping to prevent emerging liquidity pressures from escalating into broader macroeconomic or financial instability. However, uptake has been limited, with only one arrangement for Chile in 2022, which was canceled shortly thereafter in favor of a Flexible Credit Line (FCL).

The Chair’s Summing Up Independent Evaluation Office—IMF Advice on Fiscal Policy Executive Board Meeting December 4, 2025
December 16, 2025

The Executive Board discussed the Independent Evaluation Office’s review of IMF fiscal policy advice from 2008 to 2023. Directors welcomed the evaluation and noted the Fund’s progress in adapting its guidance to changing global conditions. The discussion highlighted the evolution from a narrow focus on debt sustainability toward a more integrated approach that balances fiscal sustainability, output stabilization, and long-term growth. Directors acknowledged improvements in analytical tools, including debt sustainability frameworks and fiscal risk assessments, while emphasizing the need for clearer articulation of fiscal stance and better integration of long-term spending priorities. The Board reaffirmed its commitment to transparency and consistency in providing candid, country-specific advice to help members navigate fiscal challenges.

Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on IMF Advice on Fiscal Policy Executive Board Meeting December 4, 2025
December 16, 2025

The Managing Director welcomes the Independent Evaluation Office’s assessment of IMF fiscal policy advice over the past 15 years. The evaluation highlights the Fund’s evolution from a narrow focus on debt sustainability to a more balanced framework that integrates output stabilization, fiscal sustainability, and long-term growth objectives.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)— Enhancing Resilience to Global Shocks: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
December 6, 2025

Despite the challenging external environment, the GCC economies have been resilient. Non-hydrocarbon activity has remained robust amid strong domestic demand supported by the reform momentum, limited spillovers from regional, as well as the modest direct impact of higher U.S. tariffs given the exemption of energy products and limited trade ties with the U.S. While external balances narrowed amid oil production cuts and robust imports, the external positions remain overall strong. The economic outlook remains favorable but risks are tilted to the downside amidst elevated global uncertainty. Economic activity will be supported by the unwinding of oil production cuts, the expansion of natural gas production, and strong reform and project implementation facilitated by ample policy buffers. External buffers would remain comfortable despite narrower current account balances driven by higher imports. The near-term risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, as oil prices could decline and financial conditions tighten amid high uncertainty. Over the medium term, ongoing global structural shifts pose two-sided risks for the GCC economies.

Research & Publications

Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learning and Satellite Data
January 30, 2026

The absence of reliable data on fundamental economic indicators (e.g. real GDP), combined with structural shifts in the economy, can severely constrain the ability to conduct accurate macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. This paper explores alternatives to address data limitations by integrating machine learning and satellite data to estimate real GDP. Specifically, it finds that incorporating satellite-based nightlight data into a random forest model significantly improves the accuracy of quarterly GDP growth estimates compared with models relying solely on traditional indicators. This empirical application contributes to the emerging nowcasting field to enhance economic forecasting in economies with significant data gaps.

Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital Flow Restrictions
January 30, 2026

Countries implement and liberalize capital controls opportunistically. To show this point, this paper introduces two novel indices—the Financial Account Restrictiveness Index (FARI) and the AREAER Change Index (ACI)—to measure and track capital flow restrictions across 190 countries quarterly from 1999 to 2022. FARI quantifies the restrictiveness of capital accounts, while ACI captures policy changes over time. These indices offer a comprehensive, objective, and high-frequency toolset to analyze capital account policies and their evolution over the past two decades. Using the two indices, the paper highlights global liberalization trends, regional differences, and the cyclical use of capital controls in response to macroeconomic conditions and crises.60

U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account: Unpacking Trade and Financial Channels
January 30, 2026

This paper investigates the implications of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the United States for current account balance (CAB) dynamics, given renewed interest in pursuing trade policy measures to address persistent current account deficits. We examine whether TPU, a distinct source of policy uncertainty and separate from enacted tariff and non-tariff measures, can influence aggregate macroeconmic outcomes. Using a local projection framework that controls for domestic and global macroeconomic factors and enacted trade policy changes, we find that TPU shocks generate a statistically significant but transitory positive effect on the CAB, primarily through a sharper contraction in imports relative to exports, with durable goods relatively more affected. From a savings and investment perspective, TPU raises precautionary savings in the private sector and modestly depresses investment. This is primarily driven by government investment and partially offset by private investment, particularly in high-tech sectors. Bilateral trade effects are heterogenous across different groups of trading partners: geopolitical distance and closer GVC and FDI linkages imply larger declines. Our findings suggest that while TPU can momentarily shift external balances, it does not deliver sustained improvements, highlighting the importance of transparent and predictable trade policy frameworks that mitigate costly uncertainty and avoid unintended macroeconomic distortions. Our findings also imply that econometric analyses of the CAB effects of trade policy should control for uncertainty in order to avoid spurious correlations.

The Welfare Implications of Job Retention Schemes
January 30, 2026

This paper examines the welfare implications of job retention schemes, where governments subsidize employers to preserve jobs during downturns. Using EU microdata from 2003 to 2018, we show that such schemes are associated with lower job separation rates, especially among lower-productivity workers. We build a search-and-matching model with occupational choice, calibrated to the United Kingdom during the global financial and sovereign debt crises. Simulations show that a retention policy scheme aimed at reducing unemployment by nearly 1 percentage point would have been both welfare-enhancing and cost-effective. Average welfare would have increased by 0.06 percent in consumption-equivalent terms, with low-income workers benefiting more than twice as much as the median worker by avoiding costly job switches and unemployment spells.

Still Packing a Punch: Monetary Policy Transmission in a New Cross-Country High-Frequency Dataset
January 30, 2026

This paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy using a new state-of-the-art intra-day dataset of monetary policy shocks for 16 advanced economies and emerging markets, the most comprehensive cross-country coverage to date. Using 30-minute windows around policy announcements, we construct target and path factor shocks for a broad sample of countries and assess their transmission to government bond yields, stock prices, and exchange rates. High-frequency identification improves the significance of estimated responses relative to lower-frequency intraday or daily data. Both target and path surprises generate large and consistent effects across asset classes. We find limited evidence of central bank information effects, confirming the validity of high-frequency methods. Post-COVID-19, transmission to yields and equity prices remains stable, but exchange rate responses weaken—likely due to synchronized monetary tightening across countries. The findings underscore the value of high-frequency data for robust identification and cross-country analysis of monetary policy transmission.

Taste-based Investing, Government Policies and Competition in Financial Intermediation
January 30, 2026

This paper develops a theory of how investors’ tastes are transmitted to aggregate investment through the market structure of financial intermediation. Whether tastes affect equilibrium capital allocation depends on where they originate—from households or from intermediaries—and on the degree of competition and segmentation in funding markets. Strong competition amplifies the pass-through of households’ tastes for amenity assets, but arbitrages away intermediaries’ own tastes. The same forces shape the effectiveness of financial-sector policies targeting households or intermediaries. I apply and quantify the framework in the context of green finance.

Videos

Promoting Climate-Resilient and Green Development in Africa | Africa Perspectives
February 7, 2023

A conversation on how sub-Saharan Africa can promote climate-resilient and green development. African Department director Abebe Aemro Selassie hosts the premiere episode of Africa Perspectives.

Zambia: Towards a More Resilient and Inclusive Future
February 1, 2023

A discussion with University of Zambia students on how Zambia is making progress in its reform efforts to restore sustainability, invest in youth, combat corruption, and attract investment and the role of the IMF.

Strengthening Institutions for Sustainable Growth in the Post-COVID World
January 6, 2023

The conference provides an opportunity to discuss how South Asia can build on its development success in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions to achieve its potential.

The Resilience and Sustainability Trust - A Dialogue with Countries
December 13, 2022

A discussion on how the Resilience and Sustainability Trust fits wider climate objectives at the country and global level.

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa, October 2022
November 2, 2022

Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, presents the IMF’s latest economic outlook and growth projections for the MENA region

Living on the Edge: IMF Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa Nairobi Launch
November 1, 2022

A presentation and discussion of the October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Seminars

Seminars
The Infrastructure Seminar series provides a forum for leading experts to share latest insights on key policy issues related to public infrastructure.
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Developing Economies Seminars

Developing Economies Seminars
A flagship seminar at the Fund, the Developing Economies Seminar Series focuses on topical policy issues for developing countries.
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FCDO/IMF Project

FCDO/IMF Project
The IMF has partnered with the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) to study critical macroeconomic policy issues in low-income countries to promote sustainable and inclusive growth in low-income countries.
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