Transcript of IMF Press Briefing

IMF News, September 20, 2018

Source details

Briefing embargoed until 10:30 a.m. (Washington time).
Managing Director Christine Lagarde schedule highlights:
- Monday, September 24: events in New York related to the UN General Assembly including the Secretary General's High-level meeting on the financing of the Sustainable Development Goals, World Economic Forum Sustainable Development Summit, One Planet Summit at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum (noted as open to the media).
- Monday, October 1, 11:00 a.m.: Annual Meetings Curtain Raiser Speech at IMF Headquarters.
- Wednesday, October 3: release of analytical chapters related to the World Economic Outlook and the Global Financial Stability Report via a webinar.
- Thursday, October 4: Japan Article IV press conference in Tokyo.
- October 8-14: Annual Meetings in Indonesia; World Economic Outlook launched on Tuesday, October 9.
Expectation of more than 15,000 participants at the Annual Meetings in Indonesia.

IMF team led by Roberto Cardarelli (Mission Chief for Argentina) conducted meetings in Buenos Aires with Ministry of Economy and Central Bank officials.
Status and process:
- Important progress reported "toward strengthening Argentina's economic policy plans, supported by the IMF standby arrangement," which "was previously announced in the amount of $50 billion."
- IMF staff working to conclude staff level talks "in short order" with the objective of presenting the proposal to the IMF Board "as soon as possible."
- No specific timeline provided for conclusion of discussions or Board presentation.
- Because discussions are ongoing, IMF did not provide details on specific financing measures from the podium.
IMF comments on Argentina's draft budget:
- Draft budget recently submitted to Congress seen as a fundamental part of the authorities' plan.
- Budget is noted to protect spending on social assistance and health and includes "an expansion of coverage of the universal child allowance and health."
IMF stance:
- Full support to Argentina and the Argentine people; emphasis on urgency but no fixed date given for Board consideration.

IMF assessing impact of announced U.S. tariffs on China ($200 billion) and potential further tariffs (another $267 billion) — analysis to be provided in coming weeks via the World Economic Outlook.
Key points:
- Additional tariffs "could come at a significant economic cost"; ultimate impact depends on domestic policy responses and effects on global confidence and financial conditions.
- Both U.S. and China growth expected to be affected; no numeric estimates provided at briefing.
- Christine Lagarde quote reiterated: "there are no winners in global trade war."
Emerging markets:
- Trade tensions are an added challenge to emerging markets alongside tightening financial conditions and monetary policy changes.
- IMF stands ready to help emerging market members as needed; further assessment to appear in the WEO.
On reforming the international trade system / World Trade Organization:
- IMF supports a free and fair global trade system and sees areas for improvement (examples cited: services, e-commerce).
- IMF recognizes that trade has boosted global prosperity but also notes that some people have been left out or hurt by trade; suggests measures to mitigate negative effects on those affected.

IMF hopeful an agreement between all three NAFTA partners can be reached soon to support trade and growth in the North American region.
IMF will assess impacts and provide an updated forecast for the Canadian economy in the World Economic Outlook.

IMF staff visited Athens (staff visit, no IMF program) under the European enhanced surveillance framework to discuss 2018 fiscal developments, 2019 budget preparation, and structural policy directions.
Preliminary staff finding: "the government is broadly on tract to reach the near-term growth and fiscal targets"; next IMF report expected early 2019.
On pensions:
- Pensions measures referenced were "the measures agreed in 2017" (not new).
- IMF view: implementing these measures would improve long-term prospects, signal commitment to reforms, and help shift to a more growth-friendly and socially inclusive fiscal mix by freeing fiscal space for non-retiree social spending and reducing the high tax burden.

IMF "take[s] note" of Turkish authorities' announcements and forecasts and will assess them in more detail relative to prior Article IV recommendations.
IMF is updating its Turkey forecast; results to be released with the World Economic Outlook at the Annual Meetings.
Note in source text: reference to a "625 pages points increase in the policy rate" as reported by the questioner.

IMF staff were in Kiev to discuss continuation of support for macroeconomic stability, reforms, and possible financial assistance.
Discussions are ongoing; no further detail or specific conclusion date provided.

New administration under President Mnangagwa has expressed commitment to strong economic reforms.
IMF role and conditions:
- IMF stands ready to help design a reform package to facilitate clearance of external payment arrears to international development banks and bilateral official creditors.
- Potential IMF financial support is conditional on clearance of arrears to the World Bank, the AFDB, and financing assurances from bilateral official creditors.
- Meanwhile, IMF is providing policy advice and technical assistance to help move the process forward.

IMF monitoring developments related to safety of participants following recent earthquakes and natural disasters.
IMF "reassured" by arrangements made by Indonesian authorities and expects a successful meeting with a full program.

Transcript of IMF Press Briefing — September 20, 2018, IMF Communications Department