Transcript of IMF Press Briefing
IMF News, January 17, 2019
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- Published: January 17, 2019
Schedule and public engagements
- Publication date: January 17, 2019.
- On January 21: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Gita Gopinath will present the World Economic Outlook update at the press conference in Davos, 3:00 p.m., Swiss time (9:00 o'clock here in Washington).
- On January 23: launch of a staff paper focused on jobs and unemployment, especially youth unemployment in emerging markets and developing countries.
- Release of a staff discussion note on the Sustainable Development Goals and the fiscal/financial costs of the SDGs.
- Many IMF senior managers (including First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton) will have public and media engagements in Davos; most events will be live webcast.
Pakistan
- Status: Pakistan submitted a formal request for financial assistance in October (during the IMF Annual Meetings).
- IMF staff have visited Islamabad and are continuing discussions with Pakistani authorities to reach an understanding on policy priorities and reforms to stabilize the economy and lay the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth.
U.S. federal shutdown — economic impact
- Assessment timing: "very early days" to make an economic assessment.
- IMF stance: the longer the shutdown continues, the larger the economic impact; IMF encourages U.S. Congress and the executive branch to pass a funding bill to reopen federal offices.
- Additional commentary forthcoming in the World Economic Outlook in Davos.
Brexit and the United Kingdom
- Reference: IMF assessment summarized in the 2018 Article IV (Annual Review of the UK) published in November last year.
- Key points:
- "All likely Brexit outcomes will entail costs for the UK economy" because they involve departing from the current frictionless single market.
- "The higher the impediments, the higher the cost."
- An agreement that minimizes uncertainty and trade barriers will best support growth.
- "Leaving without a withdrawal agreement" (the so called no deal Brexit) is viewed as "the most significant near-term risk to the UK economy."
France and the Yellow Vest movement
- Short-term economic assessment: "very early days" to assess economic impact of the protests.
- Policy recommendation: find renewed social consensus to continue reforms and ensure sustainability of public finances for the benefit of all French citizens and future generations.
- IMF will publish updated projections for France in the WEO update.
Greece — post-program monitoring (PPM)
- Status: No IMF financial program currently; Greece is under post-program monitoring.
- IMF activity: an IMF staff mission will be in Athens next week (first PPM visit) to discuss the economic outlook, fiscal risks, efforts to clean up the financial sector, and revive lending.
- Deliverable: IMF will publish a concluding statement at the end of next week.
Argentina
- Davos meetings: Christine Lagarde will meet with Finance Minister Dujovne and Central Bank Governor Sandleris in Davos.
- Program status: IMF staff reported the Argentine program was "on track" following the December mission and the Board discussion on December 19.
- Monetary policy and FX intervention:
- Argentina's monetary policy framework includes a transparent framework that sets parameters for Central Bank intervention.
- Central Bank has intervened consistent with that rule.
- On inflation: "the 2018 annual inflation figure is pretty much in line with the Fund's projections" (details in the staff report related to the second review).
Egypt
- Fourth review and tranche timing: IMF is finalizing details for the board review; "we expect it to be soon" and will announce the date when set.
- Fuel subsidy indexation:
- IMF view: fuel price indexation is "an important first step" to protect the budget from fuel price changes and create fiscal space for investment in health, education and infrastructure.
- Authorities indicated intention to implement indexation for most fuel products as part of energy sector reforms; "the exact timing ... will be determined by them."
Venezuela — data provision and Board action
- Background: IMF Executive Board issued a declaration of censure against Venezuela for failure to implement remedial measures and to comply with data provision obligations.
- Update: Venezuelan authorities provided some data; IMF staff are reviewing it.
- Next step: IMF Executive Board is expected to meet in the coming weeks to take stock and consider the updated data.
China data
- IMF has no information questioning Chinese data; no IMF statement of concern provided in the briefing.
- IMF will discuss China and publish updated forecasts in the WEO.
Yemen — IMF role and activities
- Given armed conflict and humanitarian crisis, IMF role is limited.
- Current IMF activities:
- Providing technical assistance to the Central Bank to identify major capacity gaps.
- Supporting authorities and donors in measures to mitigate the humanitarian crisis, including facilitating imports of basic food staples and paying civil service wages.
- IMF encourages donor focus on humanitarian needs; the UN is in the lead.
Sri Lanka
- Recent engagement: Christine Lagarde met Sri Lankan authorities on January 15.
- IMF mission: an IMF team will be in Colombo in mid-February to resume program discussions.
- Focus: strong policy mix and effective implementation of the reform agenda to strengthen confidence and put Sri Lanka on a sustainable, high quality growth path.
Zimbabwe
- Current situation:
- Zimbabwe faces major challenges, including unrest; IMF urges peaceful collaboration among stakeholders to develop stabilizing policies.
- Zimbabwe has protracted arrears to official creditors (including multilateral creditors such as the World Bank), limiting access to international financial support.
- IMF lending constraints:
- Zimbabwe has cleared its arrears to the IMF, but IMF rules preclude lending to a country that remains in arrears to other international financial institutions. Until arrears to other creditors are resolved, IMF financial support will not proceed.
- Policy view: IMF staff have noted authorities' economic policies are "headed in the right direction broadly" regarding fiscal deficit and monetary policy.
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
- WEO update timing: presented by Christine Lagarde and Gita Gopinath on January 21 in Davos (3:00 p.m., Swiss time / 9:00 a.m. Washington time).
- WEO will include updated projections and country assessments referenced throughout the briefing (U.S., France, China, France, etc.).
Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, January 17, 2019. IMF Communications Department.