Spillovers in a “Post-Pandemic, Low-For-Long” World

Joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF Conference

April 26-27, 2021

In recent decades, countries have deepened their economic and financial interdependencies. Over the same period, global interest rates have fallen to historic lows, despite a slight pick-up this year. In this environment, countries have increasingly adopted policy mixes featuring unconventional monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential measures and capital flow management to cope better with the spillovers of a highly interconnected global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced an additional layer of complexity, with consequences for the global economy, public finances, monetary policy and financial fragilities. This conference aims to close gaps in our understanding of the international transmission of local vulnerabilities and shocks in a post-pandemic, high-debt, low interest rate environment.

To register for the conference, please email: SpilloverConference2021@ecb.europa.eu


Monday. April 26, 2021 (ET)

Opening Session

8:00 am

Welcoming Remarks – Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Monetary Autonomy in a Globalised World



Chair: Livio Stracca, ECB

8:30 am

What Goes Around Comes Around: How Large Are Spillbacks from US Monetary Policy Really?


Max Breitenlechner (University of Innsbruck), Georgios Georgiadis (ECB), Ben Schumann (Free University of Berlin)


Discussant: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Bank of England)

9:15 am

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data


Diego Cerdeiro (IMF), Andras Komaromi (IMF)

Discussant: Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin)

10:00 am

Interest Rates and Foreign Spillovers


Roberto de Santis (ECB) and Srecko Zimic (ECB) 

Discussant: Chiara Scotti (Federal Reserve Board)

 10:40 am  Break

SESSION 2: Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policy 

Chair: Angela Maddaloni, ECB

11:00 am

Surges and Instability: The Maturity Shortening Channel

Xiang Li (Halle Institute for Economic Research), Dan Su (University of Minnesota)


Discussant: Mahvash Qureshi (IMF)

11:45 am

Spillovers at the Extremes: Macroprudential Tools and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle

Kristin Forbes (MIT Sloan), Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina), Karlye Dilts-Stedman (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)


Discussant: Damiano Sandri (IMF)

12:25 pm

Session Ends

April 27, 2021 (ET)

SESSION 3: Covid Effects and Monetary Policy Responses 

Chair: Katrin Assenmacher, ECB

8:30 am

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins), Jonathan Hartley (Harvard University), Daniel Jimenez (EAFIT University)


Discussant: Kristina Bluwstein (Bank of England)

9:15 am

The Calming of Short-term Market Fears and its Long-term Consequences: The Federal Reserve's Reaction to COVID-19

Lerby Ergun (Bank of Canada), Mattia Bevilacqua (London School of Economics), Lukas Brandl-Cheng (London School of Economics), Jon Danielsson (London School of Economics), Andreas Uthemann (Bank of Canada), Jean-Pierre Zigrand (London School of Economics)


Discussant: Saleem Bahaj (Bank of England)

10:00 am

ECB Euro Liquidity Lines


Silvia Albrizio (Bank of Spain), Ivan Kataryniuk (Bank of Spain), Luis Molina (Bank of Spain)


Discussant: Inaki Aldasoro (BIS)

10:40 am

Session Ends

SESSION 4: Exchange Rates and Currency Exposures 

Chair: Luca Dedola, ECB

11:10 am

The Original Sin Redux: A Model-based Evaluation


Nikhil Patel (BIS), Boris Hofmann (BIS), Steve Pak Yeung Wu (University of British Columbia)


Discussant: Ozge Akinci (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)


11:45 am

The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle


Giancarlo Corsetti (Cambridge University), Keith Kuester (University of Bonn), Gernot Mueller (University of Tubingen), Sebastian Schmidt (ECB)


Discussant: Anna Lipinska (Federal Reserve Board)

12:25 pm

Session Ends