September 2011
Disclaimer: As used in this volume the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
©2011 International Monetary Fund
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The Global Financial Stability Report provides semiannual assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context.
| Global Stability Assessment |
| Sovereign Vulnerabilities and Contagion Risks |
| Is the Search for Yield Leading to Credit Excesses? |
| Policy Priorities |
| Annex 1.1. Macro-Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets and Impact of Shocks on Bank Capital Adequacy Ratios |
| References |
| Summary |
| Longer-Term Trends in Global Asset Allocation |
| Determinants of Private Asset Allocation |
| Conclusions and Policy Implications |
| Annex 2.1. Asset Allocation: Theory and Practice |
| Annex 2.2. Results of the IMF Survey on Global Asset Allocation |
| Annex 2.3. Defining Foreign Exchange Reserves and Sovereign Wealth Funds |
| Annex 2.4. Theoretical Foundation of the Regression Specification and Detailed Regression Results |
| References |
| Summary |
| From Sources of Risk to Systemic Risk Indicators: Helpful Hints from a Structural Macro-Financial Model |
| The Quest for Leading Indicators of Financial Sector Distress |
| Macroprudential Indicators and Policies: Stitching Them Together |
| Conclusions and Practical Guidelines |
| Annex 3.1. Description of the Structural Model |
| Annex 3.2. Predicting the Probability of a Banking Crisis |
| Annex 3.3. Finding a Robust Set of Near-Coincident Indicators |
| References |
| Boxes | ||||
| 1.1 | Market Confidence Deteriorates amid Policy Uncertainty | |||
| 1.2 | How Concerned Are Markets about U.S. Sovereign Risks? | |||
| 1.3 | Quantifying Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to the European Union Banking Sector | |||
| 1.4 | Why Do U.S. Money Market Funds Hold So Much European Bank Debt? | |||
| 1.5 | Gauging Financial Stability Risks in China | |||
| 1.6 | Can Macroprudential Policies Contain the Property Boom? | |||
| 1.7 | Euro Area Developments in Crisis Management | |||
| 1.8 | An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Instruments | |||
| 2.1 | Asset Allocation of Reserve Managers | |||
| 2.2 | A New Asset Allocation Framework Using Risk -Factors | |||
| Data | 2.3 | The Low Interest Rate Environment and Pension Funds | ||
| 2.4 | Sovereign Asset Management and the Global Financial Crisis | |||
| 3.1 | Monitoring and Policy Tools at New U.S., U.K, and EU Macroprudential Authorities | |||
| 3.2 | Legal Prerequisites for Housing Finance Systems | |||
| 3.3 | Risk-Materialization: The Search for Near-Coincident Indicators of Financial System Stress | |||
| 3.4 | An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Macroprudential Instruments | |||
| Tables | ||||
| Data | 1.1 | Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies | ||
| Data | 1.2 | Sovereign Debt: Market and Vulnerability Indicators | ||
| Data | 1.3 | Emerging Market Banks: Sensitivity to Macroeconomic and Funding Shocks | ||
| Data | 1.4 | Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators for Selected Emerging Economies | ||
| 2.1 | Assets under Management by Institutional Investors | |||
| 2.2 | Assets of Selected Sovereign Wealth Funds | |||
| 2.3 | Asset Manager's Assets under Management: Origin of Funds | |||
| 2.4 | Summary of Panel Regression Results on Equity and Bond Flows | |||
| 2.5 | Simulated Effects of Shocks on Regional Flows: Emerging Markets | |||
| 2.6 | Evaluating the Economic Significance of Crisis Indicator Coefficients | |||
| 2.7 | Expected Period before Policy Rate Rise | |||
| 2.8 | Top Five Factors Considered in Cross-Border Investment since End-2006 | |||
| 2.9 | Regional Allocation | |||
| 2.10 | Asset Allocation by Asset Class | |||
| 2.11 | Survey Participants' Assets under Management | |||
| 2.12 | Asset Managers' Assets under Management: Origin of Funds | |||
| 2.13 | Asset Allocation by Asset Class | |||
| 2.14 | Regional Allocation | |||
| 2.15 | Top 10 Investment Destinations | |||
| 2.16 | Top Five Factors Considered in Country Allocation | |||
| 2.17 | Top Five Factors Considered in Cross-Border Investment since End-2006 | |||
| 2.18 | Experience and Expectations of Portfolio Risk Exposures and Returns | |||
| 2.19 | Expected Period before Policy Rate Rise | |||
| 2.20 | Use of Hedging Instruments | |||
| 2.21 | Use of Derivatives to Enhance Yields | |||
| 2.22 | Survey Participants | |||
| 2.23 | Sovereign Wealth Fund Classification | |||
| 2.24 | Determinants of Equity and Bond Flows: Panel Regression Results | |||
| 3.1 | Noise-to-Signal Ratios for Different Credit Indicators | |||
| 3.2 | Predictive Power of Various Indicators “X” Years before the Crisis | |||
| 3.3 | Long-Run Steady-State Volatilities, by Type of Capital Requirement | |||
| 3.4 | Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises: Single–Indicator Probit Model | |||
| 3.5 | Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises: Two–Indicator Probit Model | |||
| 3.6 | Granger Causality of Systemic Risk Measure to the Event Indicator | |||
| 3.7 | Forecastibility of Extreme Events: Logit Regressions | |||
| 3.8 | Turning Points: Quandt-Andrews Breakpoint Test on Persistence and Level | |||
| 3.9 | Total Score | |||
| Figures | ||||
| 1.1 | Phases of the Crisis | |||
| Data | 1.2 | Global Financial Stability Map | ||
| Data | 1.3 | Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions | ||
| Data | 1.4 | Asset Price Performance since the April 2011 GFSR | ||
| Data | 1.5 | Sovereign Vulnerabilities and Market Pressures | ||
| Data | 1.6 | Historical Volatility in One-Month Treasury Bills During Debt Ceiling Negotiations | ||
| Data | 1.7 | Change in Advanced Economy Government Bond Yields around Sovereign Debt Downgrades | ||
| 1.8 | Developments in Sovereign Spreads, 2011 | |||
| 1.9 | Debt Dynamics | |||
| Data | 1.10 | Changes in the Sovereign Investor Base | ||
| 1.11 | Bond Market Volatility | |||
| Data | 1.12 | Financing Sensitivity to an Interest Rate Shock | ||
| Data | 1.13 | Size of High-Spread Euro Area Government Bond Markets | ||
| Data | 1.14 | European Credit Risks and Market Capitalization | ||
| 1.15 | Spreads on Bank Five-Year Credit Default Swaps | |||
| Data | 1.16 | Bank Debt Issuance as a Percent of Maturing Debt, 2011 | ||
| Data | 1.17 | Cumulative Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to the European Union Banking System | ||
| Data | 1.18 | Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to Country Banking Systems | ||
| 1.19 | Distribution of Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to European Banks | |||
| Data | 1.20 | Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to Insurers | ||
| 1.21 | Advanced Economy Bank Funding, by Source, 2011:Q1 | |||
| 1.22 | U.S. Prime Money Market Fund Exposures to Banks | |||
| Data | 1.23 | Deposit Growth in High-Spread Euro Area Countries | ||
| Data | 1.24 | Contributions to Change in Bank Balance Sheets since End-2009 | ||
| Data | 1.25 | Deleveraging Scenario: Change in High-Spread Euro Area Bank Credit to the Nonfinancial Private Sector | ||
| Data | 1.26 | Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Gross Outstanding Amount | ||
| 1.27 | European Bank Core Tier 1 Ratios | |||
| 1.28 | Phases of the Credit Cycle | |||
| Data | 1.29 | U.S. Household Debt, and Mortgage Delinquencies at Banks | ||
| Data | 1.30 | Bank Lending Conditions for Nonfinancial Corporations | ||
| Data | 1.31 | U.S. BBB-Rated Corporate Credit Spreads versus Real Federal Funds Rate | ||
| Data | 1.32 | Current versus Past U.S. Credit and Economic Cycles: Federal Funds Rate, BBB-Rated Corporate Spreads, and Real Cumulative GDP Growth | ||
| Data | 1.33 | Global Securitized and Structured Products Issuance | ||
| 1.34 | Hedge Fund Assets under Management | |||
| Data | 1.35 | Financing by U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations | ||
| Data | 1.36 | High-Yield Gross Issuance and Leveraged Loan Covenants | ||
| Data | 1.37 | Emerging Markets: Capital Flows, Credit, and Equity Prices | ||
| Data | 1.38 | Net Capital Flows by Region | ||
| Data | 1.39 | Emerging Market Corporate External Issuance | ||
| Data | 1.40 | Emerging Market Corporate versus U.S. High-Yield Debt: Yields, Leverage, Returns | ||
| Data | 1.41 | Emerging Markets External Corporate Issuance, by Sector | ||
| Data | 1.42 | Emerging Markets: Total Credit to the Nonbanking Sector | ||
| Data | 1.43 | Model Prediction for NPL Ratios in 2011 and 2012 Based on 2010 Values | ||
| Data | 1.44 | Impact when Net Capital Flows Decline | ||
| Data | 1.45 | Impact when Terms of Trade Decline | ||
| Data | 1.46 | Change in Capital Adequacy Ratios under Combined Macro Shocks | ||
| 1.47 | Available Set of Policy Choices Is Shrinking | |||
| Data | 1.48 | Impulse Responses: Model Specification 1 | ||
| Data | 1.49 | Impulse Responses: Model Specification 2 | ||
| Data | 1.50 | Macro Scenarios under Combined Shocks | ||
| Data | 2.1 | Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors | ||
| Data | 2.2 | Assets of Institutional Investors by Country | ||
| Data | 2.3 | Asset under Management by Type of Institutional Investors | ||
| Data | 2.4 | Global Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors by Selected Country | ||
| Data | 2.5 | Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investor and Selected Country, 2009 | ||
| Data | 2.6 | Foreign Exchange Reserves, Excluding Gold | ||
| 2.7 | Selected Sovereign Wealth Funds: Asset Allocation by Type of Fund, December 2010 | |||
| 2.8 | Simulated Effects of Shocks on Regional Flows: Emerging Markets | |||
| Data | 2.9 | Regional Distribution of Equity and Bond Mutual Fund Investments | ||
| 2.10 | Minimum Variance Frontier | |||
| 3.1 | Road Map of the Chapter | |||
| 3.2 | Behavior of Four Indicators under Three Shock Scenarios | |||
| Data | 3.3 | Event Study Results: Aggregate Indicators Three Years before to Two Years after Crises | ||
| 3.4 | Probability of a Systemic Banking Crisis | |||
| 3.5 | Estimated Probability of a Systemic Banking Crisis in the United States: Effect of Changes in Credit | |||
| 3.6 | Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Time-Varying Capital Requirements for an Asset-Price Shock | |||
| 3.7 | Effects of Productivity Shock and Time-Varying Capital Requirements on Real GDP | |||
| 3.8 | Marginal Effect on Probability of Crisis of Change in Ratio of Credit to GDP | |||
| Statistical Appendix | ||||
| Figures | ||||
| Data | 1. | Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2010 | ||
| 2. | Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads | |||
| 3. | Selected Credit Default Swap Spreads | |||
| 4. | Selected Spreads | |||
| 5. | Implied Volatility Indices | |||
| Data | 6. | Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios | ||
| Data | 7. | United States: Corporate Bond Market | ||
| Data | 8. | Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market | ||
| Data | 9. | United States: Commercial Paper Market | ||
| Tables | ||||
| Data | 1. | Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010 | ||
| Data | 2. | MSCI Equity Market Indices | ||
| Data | 3. | Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads | ||
| Data | 4. | Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans | ||
| Data | 5. | Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds | ||
| Data | 6. | Emerging Market External Financing: Equities | ||
| Data | 7. | Emerging Market External Financing: Loans | ||
| Data | 8. | Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios | ||
| Data | 9. | Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios | ||
| Data | 10. | Emerging Markets: Mutual Fund Flows | ||
| (*)Please note that effective with the April 2011 issue, the IMF’s Statistics Department has assumed responsibility for compiling the Financial Soundness Indicators tables and they are no longer part of this appendix. However, these tables will continue to be linked to the GFSR Statistical Appendix on the IMF’s public website. | ||||
| The following symbols have been used throughout this appendix: . . . to indicate that data are not available; —— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist; - between years and months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). “n.a.” means not applicable. Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding. |
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| Disclaimer: As used in this volume the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. | ||||
