Regional Economic Outlook

©2013 International Monetary Fund

Asia has not been spared by the recent re-pricing of financial assets in emerging markets, encountering a wave of capital outflows in the past few months. The overall impact has, so far, been manageable although some countries have been subject to greater stress. Tighter global liquidity–– and homegrown structural impediments in some countries––will weigh on growth, but for most economies the impact should be partly offset by a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies and resilient domestic demand. If, however, conditions tighten further we are likely to see even greater differentiation across the region. Those with strong fundamentals and policy credibility will be able to offset imported tightening through lower policy rates and fiscal support. Others that have delayed reforms, left fiscal vulnerabilities untackled, or tolerated too-high inflation may be forced to respond with a procyclical policy tightening. Announcing credible medium-term reforms would rebuild confidence and ease policy trade-offs.