Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, April 27, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 27, 2011
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Regional overview and main findings
- Reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.
- Rebound in crude oil prices and production leads to visible improvements in fiscal and external balances in 2010–11 for oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
- Further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification are top agenda items for oil exporters.
- Oil-importing countries (including Afghanistan and Pakistan) weathered the global recession well; Pakistan suffered devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year.
- Overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importers: raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations.
- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment; exports are picking up and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace.
- Despite broadly positive outlooks, risks are largely on the downside.
- Priority policy actions across the region include resolving banking sector problems and, in some countries, reducing external debt and current account deficits.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) — Highlights and chapters
- MENAP Highlights
- Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters: Opportunity to Pursue Fundamental Reforms
- Sections: Increased Uncertainty, But Financial Windfalls; Despite the Windfalls, Near-Term Policy Challenges Remain; Medium Term: Outlook Good, But Deep Structural Reforms Needed
- Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers: Winds of Change
- Sections: Before the Protests; Temporary Toll on Region’s Economies; Higher Commodity Prices Add to Challenges; Policy Responses Come at a Fiscal Cost…; …But Higher Spending Will Support Near-Term Growth; Economic Policy Space Is Tight; The Road Ahead
- Chapter 3: Policy Challenges
- 3.1 MENA Oil Importers: Creating Jobs for the Young Workforce
- Unemployment: Largely a Youth Phenomenon
- Quick Wins with Long-Term Benefits: Lessons from Elsewhere
- Pillars of a Comprehensive Job Strategy
- 3.2 Moving from Subsidizing Products to Protecting People: Strengthening Social Protection in MENAP
- The Cost of Reliance on Subsidies for Social Protection
- Why Is Price Subsidy Reform So Difficult?
- Steps to Strengthen Social Protection in the Short Term
- Advancing Subsidy Reform with Broad Ownership
- 3.3 The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
- Financial Depth Is Adequate Overall…; …But Banks Have Not Delivered; Policy Actions Going Forward
Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Highlights and chapters
- CCA Highlights
- Chapter 4: Caucasus and Central Asia: Sustaining the Recovery
- Sections: Growth Continued to Recover But Inflation Picked Up; Continuing Recovery at a Moderating Pace; Risks to the Outlook; Policy Challenges: Achieving Sustainable and Inclusive Growth; Is Inflation a Concern?; Resisting Fiscal Pressures, Improving Expenditure Quality; Strengthening Bank Balance Sheets; Improving the Business Climate to Create Job Opportunities
Policy recommendations and priorities (region-wide, as presented)
- For oil exporters:
- Pursue financial sector development.
- Advance economic diversification away from oil dependence.
- Use improved oil revenues to address fiscal and external balances while advancing structural reforms.
- For oil importers:
- Raise growth and create jobs for expanding and youthful populations.
- Manage the fiscal cost of policy responses to surging commodity prices.
- Implement more cost-effective social safety nets to replace subsidies over the medium term.
- For Caucasus and Central Asia:
- Address rising inflation without threatening fiscal stability.
- Restore the health of banking systems.
- Diversify growth beyond mining, oil, and gas to increase job creation and reduce poverty.
- Cross-cutting priorities:
- Resolve banking sector problems.
- Reduce external debt and current account deficits where needed.
- Strengthen social protection, including steps to advance subsidy reform with broad ownership.
- Improve expenditure quality and resist unsustainable fiscal pressures.
Notable boxes, figures, tables, and statistical appendices included
- Boxes (selected): 1.1 Stabilizing Global Oil Markets; 1.2 Sudan: Economic Challenges for North and South Sudan; 1.3 Employment Creation in Oil Exporters; 1.4 Spillovers from the GCC; 2.1 Political Unrest Shakes Egyptian and Tunisian Economies; 2.2 Tourism Takes a Break; 3.2.2 Examples of Successful Subsidy Reforms; 4.1 Poverty and Social Context in the CCA; 4.4 New Pipelines in the Caucasus and Central Asia Region
- Figures (selected): 1.1 Crude Oil Prices Rise Sharply; 1.6 Current Accounts Improve Across the Board; 1.8 Fiscal Balances Improve; 2.6 New Fiscal Costs; 3.1.1 Unemployment Rates by Region; 4.6 High and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans
- Tables (selected): 1.1 Summary of Recent Fiscal Policy Measures; 2.1 Impact of Higher Fuel and Food Prices; 2.2 Fiscal Policy Measures Announced Since Late 2010
- Statistical Appendix covers 1. Real GDP Growth through 22. Nonperforming Loans
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents
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References
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- Watch video:
- شاهدوا الفيديو
- The MENA Jobs and Growth Challenge: How Can Finance Help?
- Subsidies—Love Them or Hate Them, It's Better to Target Them
- IMF Sees Long-Term Opportunities for the Middle East and North Africa Despite Short-Term Challenges Amid Unrest
- Mideast Countries See Opportunity Amid Unrest
- Watch video:
- Seven Pillars of Prosperity—Diversifying Economic Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
- Strong Recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia to Continue in 2011
- Caucasus, Central Asia Rebound, But Inflation Poses Risk
- Regional Economic Outlooks
- Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows
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