Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, Update
Middle East and Central Asia, April 20, 2012
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- Published: April 20, 2012
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Middle East and North Africa: Historic Transitions under Strain
- The MENA region is undergoing a period of "unprecedented change."
- In the "Arab Spring" countries:
- Political transition, pressing social demands, and an adverse external environment have combined to increase the near-term risks to macroeconomic stability.
- These risks were contained during 2011 but, with growth faltering, unemployment rising, and continued fiscal and external pressures, 2012 will be an equally challenging year.
- Many countries have diminished policy space, having eaten into their foreign exchange and fiscal buffers during 2011.
- There is a risk that these developments could derail the historic transition that is under way in these countries.
- Policy recommendations and international responsibilities:
- Arab Spring countries need to set out on their own paths toward economic modernization and transformation.
- The international community is called upon to provide financial support and technical and policy advice, as well as enhanced market access, to support homegrown reform agendas.
- Middle East oil exporters:
- Are benefiting from high oil prices.
- Growth in 2011 was concentrated in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, but is expected to pick up further and be more broad-based across the region in 2012.
Caucasus and Central Asia: Solid Growth but Global Risks Loom Large
- The CCA region recorded fairly strong economic performance in 2011, underpinned by robust commodity exports and remittance inflows.
- Near-term outlook:
- Growth of such flows is expected to moderate in the near term—reflecting a weaker external environment—yet CCA economies are still expected to hold up well.
- Policy implications:
- The broadly positive outlook presents an opportunity for CCA policymakers to rebuild policy buffers, prepare for downside risks that might materialize, and foster an inclusive growth agenda.
Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia — April 2012
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