IMF Regional Economic Outlook (REO), April 2016: Sub-Saharan Africa Time for a Policy Reset -- Table of Contents
Sub-Saharan Africa, April 20, 2016
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 20, 2016
- Series: Sub-Saharan Africa
Global context and headline projections
- Global growth forecast revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
- The global growth projection for 2015 was lowered to 3.8 percent.
Regional overview: recent performance and outlook
- After an extended period of strong economic growth, many sub-Saharan African countries have been hit by multiple shocks: the sharp decline in commodity prices, tighter financing conditions, and a severe drought in southern and eastern Africa.
- Growth fell in 2015 to its lowest level in some 15 years and is expected to slow further to 3 percent in 2016.
- Output expanded by 3.4 percent in 2015, down from 5 percent in 2014, and only a little above population growth.
- The growth performance differs across countries, with most oil importers faring reasonably well.
- The region’s medium-term prospects remain favorable, but many countries urgently need to reset their policies to reinvigorate growth and realize this potential.
Key channels and vulnerabilities
- Dependence on natural resource exports has made nearly half of sub-Saharan African countries vulnerable to the ongoing decline in commodity prices.
- The sharp decline in commodity prices has placed a number of the region’s larger countries under severe strain, with a pronounced impact on the regionwide aggregate.
- With external demand and financing conditions significantly worsening, and a much less favorable growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, identifying untapped or underutilized sources of growth and reducing its volatility have become even more urgent.
Financial development and growth
- Financial development is important for promoting strong and stable economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Financial development entails the wider use of existing financial instruments as well as the creation and adoption of new ones for intermediating funds and managing risk.
- It is well established in both the theoretical and empirical literature that financial development is generally good for growth; whether it is an engine for growth or just a lubricant remains debated.
- With worsening external conditions, examining factors that can significantly ameliorate growth prospects for the region has become more urgent.
Policy recommendations
- Countries should adjust fiscal policies as part of a policy reset.
- For countries outside monetary unions, exchange rate flexibility should generally be part of the first line of defense as part of a wider policy package.
- In the medium term, policies targeted at diversification and financial sector development could strengthen resilience and boost growth.
Content structure and data notes
- Contents include: Executive Summary; Abbreviations; Acknowledgments; Chapter 1: Time for a Policy Reset; Chapter 2: Weathering the Commodity Price Slump; Chapter 3: Financial Development and Sustainable Growth; Statistical Appendix; References; Publications of the IMF Africa Department, 2009-16.
- Chapter highlights:
- Chapter 1: Economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015 slumped to its lowest level in some 15 years; the main reason for the slowdown is the sharp decline in commodity prices.
- Chapter 2: The dependence on natural resource exports has made nearly half of sub-Saharan African countries vulnerable to the decline in commodity prices, with the extent and depth of impact varying across countries.
- Chapter 3: Financial development is explored as a source of sustainable growth and a means to reduce volatility.
- Unless otherwise noted, data and projections presented in this Regional Economic Outlook are IMF staff estimates as of 25 March, 2016, consistent with the projections underlying the April 2016 World Economic Outlook.
- The data and projections cover 45 sub-Saharan African countries in the IMF’s African Department. Data definitions follow established international statistical methodologies to the extent possible; in some cases, data limitations limit comparability across countries.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook (REO), April 2016: Sub-Saharan Africa Time for a Policy Reset — Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- Afrique subsaharienne : Perspectives économiques régionales; avril 2016
- Afrique subsaharienne : Perspectives économiques régionales; avril 2016
- Abbreviationspdf
- Acknowledgmentspdf
- Chapter1pdf
- Chapter2pdf
- Chapter3pdf
- Executivepdf
- Publicationspdf
- Referencespdf
- Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2016
- Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa; April 2016
- Statspdf
References
- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
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- Podcast: Weakening Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Calls for Policy Reset
- Press Release: IMF Calls for a Policy Reset to Secure Sub-Saharan Africa’s Medium-Term Growth
- Survey Story: Weakening Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Calls for Policy Reset
- Regional Economic Outlook (October 2015): Sub-Saharan Africa: Dealing with the Gathering Clouds
- IMF Data Portal
- [IMF Data Mapper® v3
Plot, compare and import data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php?db=AFRREO)