Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Headwinds: Sub-Saharan Africa — April 2015 — Table of Contents

Sub-Saharan Africa, April 20, 2015

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to register another year of solid growth, although the expansion will be at the lower end of the range registered in recent years.
The sharp decline in oil prices has had a severe impact on the region’s oil exporters.
In a context of tightening global financial conditions, large fiscal and current account deficits in some countries could leave them vulnerable to a potential reduction in external financing.
Additional risks include an uneven global recovery and domestic security-related challenges.
Beyond the immediate shock, further progress toward diversification and structural transformation is crucial to:
- sustain high and inclusive growth,
- generate jobs for the rapidly growing young population,
- foster integration into global value chains.

Central finding: Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy looks set to register another year of solid growth in 2015 (4½ percent).
Heterogeneous impact of falling oil prices:
- For the eight oil exporters, the shock will pose a formidable challenge and, with limited buffers, will require significant fiscal adjustment.
- For most other countries, lower oil prices represent a favorable development, partly offset in some cases by lower prices of other commodities they export.
Chapter components listed:
- Full Text
- Global Backdrop: Not What It Has Been
- Outlook: Growing (with) Pain
- Falling Commodity Prices: A Tale of Two Africas
- External Financing Conditions: The Times They Are A-Changin'?
- The Impact of the Ebola Outbreak

Key demographic projection:
- By 2035, the number of sub-Saharan Africans reaching working age (15–64) will exceed that of the rest of the world combined.
The chapter examines:
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Transition
- The Demographic Dividend: Channels and Challenges
- The Demographic Dividend: International Experiences
- Policy Options for Sub-Saharan Africa
- Policy Scenarios
- Conclusions

Focus: extent and strength of integration of sub-Saharan Africa into the global economy, with special emphasis on trade and participation in global value chains.
Analytical goals:
- Evaluate how trade integration has contributed to economic performance in recent decades.
- Examine factors likely to allow the region to tap its trade integration potential, in particular better positioning in global and regional value chains to support durable growth and foster structural transformation.
Chapter components listed:
- International and Regional Integration Over the Last 20 Years
- Trade Openness and Macroeconomic Performance
- What Can Support Further Integration into Global Value Chains?
- Annex 3.1. Recent Trends in Regional Financial Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Annex 3.2. Description of Econometric Models Used and List of Country Groups

Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Sub-Saharan Africa - Navigating Headwinds, April 2015 — Table of Contents