Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
April 2007
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The past year has been one of strong economic performance for the Western Hemisphere, notwithstanding somewhat slower growth in the United States in recent quarters. Can this performance be sustained, and what challenges does the region face? Reviewing macroeconomic prospects and risks, this report pays particular attention to the influence of the external environment on Latin America, and addresses the question of whether Latin America has now succeeded in breaking with its history of periodic growth reversals.
Contents
| Executive Summary | |
| I. | The Global Economy and the Outlook for the United States and Canada |
| The Global Context | |
| The Outlook for the United States and Canada | |
| II. | The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean |
| Main Developments and Prospects | |
| Financial Sector | |
| External Developments | |
| Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies | |
| Fiscal Policy | |
| III. | The Effect of the External Environment on Growth in Latin America |
| Alternative World Growth Paths | |
| Alternative Commodity Price Assumptions | |
| Tighter Emerging Market Financing Conditions | |
| A Combined Assessment | |
| IV. | Sustaining the Expansion and Raising Long-Term Growth |
| Toward Higher Long-Term Productivity Growth | |
| Sustaining the Expansion | |
| Main Economic Indicators | |
| Appendix | |
| Modeling the Impact of External Shocks on Latin America | |
| References | |
| Boxes | |
| 1. | The Slowdown in the U.S. Housing Market |
| 2. | Brazil: Revision of National Accounts |
| 3. | The Caribbean: Growth and Fiscal Effects of the 2007 Cricket World Cup |
| 4. | Peru's New Economic Reform Program |
| 5. | Offshore-Licensed Financial Entities in Central America and the Dominican Republic |
| 6. | Productivity, Investment, and Employment in the Current Expansion |
| 7. | Education Quality, Human Capital, and Growth in Latin America |