IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability, May 2001

World Economic Outlook, May 1, 2001

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability, May 2001

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Bibliographic details

Published: May 1, 2001
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.
Focus: major economic policy issues and analysis of economic developments and prospects; usually prepared twice a year as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and as the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
Associated materials listed on the landing page include: The WEO Database May 2001; Transcript of a Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook, April 26, 2001; Ordering Information; Other issues of the World Economic Outlook; WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present; Research at the IMF; Email notification sign-up; Modify your profile.
Format note: PDF files available; uses Adobe Acrobat Reader for viewing.

Main report components and file sizes

Contents (129k pdf)
Chapter I. Prospects and Policy Challenges (602k pdf file)
Chapter II. Three Current Policy Issues (368k pdf file)
Chapter III. Fiscal Improvement In Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last? (333k pdf file)
Chapter IV. The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can It Be Maintained? (299k pdf file)
Annex (555k pdf file)
Box A1 and related compilation (497k pdf file)

Chapter I — Prospects and Policy Challenges (headings and issues)

Major thematic questions:
- How Hard a Landing in the United States?
- Will Japan's Fragile Recovery Continue?
- Can Domestic Demand Sustain European Growth?
- How Will the Global Slowdown Affect Asia?
- How Will the Global Slowdown Affect Latin America?
- Can Africa Achieve Sustained Higher Growth?
- The Middle East: Managing Terms of Trade Volatility
- Rebalancing the Policy Mix in Europe's Emerging Markets
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Oil Prices Are Key
Appendices:
- Appendix I: The Global Slowdown and Commodity Prices
- Appendix II: Reducing External Imbalances
Boxes in Chapter I:
- 1.1 How Well Do Forecasters Predict Turning Points?
- 1.2 Sustainability of the U.S. External Current Account
- 1.3 Japan's Recent Monetary and Structural Policy Initiatives
- 1.4 The Enhanced HIPC Initiative in Africa
- 1.5 Large Current Account Deficits in Transition Countries Seeking Membership in the European Union
Tables and figures associated with Chapter I include:
- Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
- Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
- Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
- Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- European Union Accession Candidates: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- Alternative Scenario: Soft Landing with Imbalance Adjustment (Table 1.12)
- Alternative Scenario: Harder Landing (Table 1.13)
Figures listed:
- Global Indicators
- Selected European Union Countries, Japan, and United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
- Financial Market Developments
- External Vulnerabilities in Developing Countries
- United States: Sharp Slowdown and Persistent Imbalances
- Japan: Recovery Faltering
- Euro Area: Growth Moderating, but Still Reasonably Robust
- Selected Asian Countries: The Impact of Weakening External Demand
- Western Hemisphere: Exposure to External Shocks
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Why Has the Recent Expansion Slowed?
- Middle East: Responding to Oil Price Volatility
- Selected European Countries: Domestic Demand Growth and General Government Balances
- Russia: Recovery Driven by Exchange Rate Depreciation and Oil Prices
- 1.14 Primary Commodity Prices and Selected Economic Indicators
- 1.15 West Texas Oil: Spot Price and Futures Contacts
- 1.16 Computer Chip Prices
- 1.17 Global Imbalances Adjustment Scenarios

Chapter II — Three Current Policy Issues (headings and analytical focus)

Topics:
- Impact of the Global Technology Correction on the Real Economy
- What is Driving the Weakness of the Euro and the Strength of the Dollar?
- Trade Integration and Sub-Saharan Africa
Boxes and analytic items listed:
- 2.1 The Weakness of the Australian and New Zealand Currencies
- 2.2 Africa's Trade and the Gravity Model
- Changes in market capitalization (March 2000 to March 2001)
- Impacts of equity valuation changes on consumption and investment (2.3, 2.4)
- 2.5 Are Stock Valuations a Leading Indicator of The Business Cycle?
- 2.6 Explaining Bilateral Exchange Rate Movements
- Trade policy measures for Africa (2.7, 2.9, 2.11–2.13)
- Measures of trade policy regimes: Sachs-Warner Openness Index and IMF's Trade Restrictiveness Index, 2000
- Equity, sectoral stock indices, and TMT (technology, media, telecommunications) related series
- 2.8 Global Net Portfolio Flows to the United States by Asset Class
- 2.9 Net Portfolio Flows into U.S. Stocks from Euro Area and the Exchange Rate
- 2.10 The Euro and Long-Term Interest Rate Differential

Chapter III — Fiscal Improvement in Advanced Economies (headings and analytical focus)

Topics:
- Fiscal Improvement In Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last?
- Fiscal Improvement in OECD Countries: A Retrospective
- The Role of Institutional Reform
- Future Fiscal Performance
Boxes and figures/tables:
- 3.1 Japan: A Fiscal Outlier?
- 3.2 Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities
- 3.3 Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Macroeconomic Performance
- 3.4 Fiscal Frameworks in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
- Net Migration Flows to Major Industrial Economies in 2000 to 2050
- Fiscal Trends in OECD Countries; Fiscal Developments in the OECD Area; Fiscal Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- Actual and Structural Balances in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.5 Expenditure Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.6 Revenue Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.7 Elderly Dependency Ratios
- 3.8 Direct Effects of Aging on Government Finances
- 3.9 Employment--Population Ratios by Age, Selected Countries, 1999
- 3.10 Total Dependency Ratios
- 3.11 Saving, Investment, and Current Account Balances in the Reference Scenario

Chapter IV — The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets (headings and policy issues)

Topics:
- The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can It Be Maintained?
- Why Do Countries Inflate?
- Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of Inflation
- What Explains the 1990s Inflation Performance in Emerging Markets?
- Monetary Regimes and Inflation Performance
- What Does the Recent Record Tell Us?
- Safeguarding Low Inflation in Emerging Markets
Boxes and annex items:
- 4.1 Why Emerging Market Countries Should Strive to Preserve Lower Inflation
- 4.2 Is There a Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation?
- 4.3 Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies: Implementation and Challenges
- 4.4 Major Emerging Market Exchange-Rate and Money-Based Stabilization Programs Since the 1970s
- 4.5 Fiscal Balances of Countries That Adopted Inflation Targeting
- 4.6 Foreign Currency Deposits
- 4.7 Selected Exchange Rate Stabilization Programs, 1985-98
- 4.8 Selected Monetary Stabilization Programs, 1975-90
Data and figures listed:
- Inflation in Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets
- Inflation in Emerging Markets
- Emerging Market Countries: Selected Variables
- Seigniorage in Emerging Market Economies, 19502000
- Inflation and Its Determinants in Emerging Markets
- Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets in the 1990s
- Monetary Regimes in Emerging Market Countries

Annex, Statistical Appendix, and Assumptions

Annex and Summing Up by the Acting Chairman (555k pdf file)
Statistical Appendix includes:
- Assumptions
- Data and Conventions
- Classification of Countries
- List of Tables covering:
- Output (Tables 1–7)
- Inflation (Tables 8–13)
- Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
- Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
- Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
- Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37)
- External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
- Flow of Funds (Tables 44)
- Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
- Box A1: Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Countries

Key analytical emphases and policy relevance (as reflected in chapter headings)

Global and regional growth prospects and policy challenges amid a global slowdown.
Alternative scenarios for global imbalances adjustment, including "Soft Landing with Imbalance Adjustment" and "Harder Landing."
Interaction between financial market developments (including the global technology correction and equity valuation changes) and the real economy.
Currency movements and their macroeconomic implications (euro, dollar, yen, Australian and New Zealand currencies).
Trade integration impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa and measures of trade policy regimes.
Sustainability and future trajectory of fiscal improvements in OECD and advanced economies, including demographic pressures (elderly dependency, migration) and implications for government finances.
The decline of inflation in emerging markets, determinants of inflation, monetary regimes, and the role of inflation targeting.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability, May 2001 — landing page contents and structure as provided on the source page.

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References

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