World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database - Assumptions and Data Conventions
World Economic Outlook
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Assumptions
- Real effective exchange rates are assumed to have remained constant at their average levels during January 30, 2024—February 27, 2024, except currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II, which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro.
- Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained; for specific fiscal and monetary policy assumptions for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix.
- Oil price assumptions:
- The average price of oil is assumed to be $78.61 a barrel in 2024 and $73.68 a barrel in 2025.
- Short-term government bond yield assumptions (three-month):
- United States: 5.2 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025.
- Euro area: 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2.6 percent in 2025.
- Japan: 0.0 percent in 2024 and 0.1 percent in 2025.
- Long-term government bond yield assumptions (10-year):
- United States: 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025.
- Euro area: 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.6 percent in 2025.
- Japan: 1.0 percent in 2024 and 1.1 percent in 2025.
- These assumptions are characterized as working hypotheses rather than forecasts; the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error in projections.
- The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 1, 2024.
Data Conventions
- Coverage:
- Data and projections for 196 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- Data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments; regional departments regularly update country projections based on consistent global assumptions.
- Statistical standards and adaptation:
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
- The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been aligned with SNA 2008.
- Conversion to updated standards depends on national statistical compilers providing revised country data; WEO estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals.
- Many countries are implementing SNA 2008 or European System of National and Regional Accounts 2010; a few countries use versions of the SNA older than that from 1993.
- Conventions used throughout the WEO:
- Domestic economy series are expressed in billions of national currency units.
- External accounts series are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars.
- "Billion" means a thousand million; "trillion" means a thousand billion.
- Missing data are indicated by "n/a".
- A blank row means that data is not available or not applicable.
- "/" means between years or months (for example, 2023/24) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
- Shading differences are used to distinguish historical results from IMF staff projections.
- Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.
- Data refer to calendar years, except for a few countries that use fiscal years.
- For some countries, the figures for 2023 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns.
- The terms “country” and “economy” also cover some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
- Composite data are provided for various groups; group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
Further information, updates, and data handling
- WEO historical data and projections are compiled by IMF staff at the time of the WEO exercises and are based on information gathered by IMF country desk officers through missions and ongoing country analysis.
- Historical data are updated continually as more information becomes available; structural breaks are often adjusted using splicing and other techniques to produce smooth series.
- IMF staff estimates serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable; as a result, WEO data can differ from other official sources, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.
- WEO data and metadata are provided “as is” and “as available”; efforts are made to ensure timeliness, accuracy, and completeness, but these cannot be guaranteed.
- When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary and on the IMF website; all substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.
Contact and inquiries
- Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent to:
- World Economic Studies Division, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20431, U.S.A.
- WEO Question Form.
Content in this bundle
- April 2025 WEO Database - Country Data Documentation
- Historical WEO Forecasts Database (XLSX)