Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity

Author/Editor:

Theodore M. Barnhill ; George Kopits

Publication Date:

April 1, 2003

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research.

Series:

Working Paper No. 03/79

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

April 1, 2003

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451850222/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0792003

Format:

Paper

Pages:

34

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org