Africa's Got Work to Do: Employment Prospects in the New Century
IMF Working Papers, October 1, 2013
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Louise Fox, Cleary Haines, Jorge Huerta Munoz, Alun H. Thomas
- Published: October 1, 2013
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484389195.001
Summary
- Estimates of the current and future structure of employment in sub-Saharan Africa (2005–20) are obtained based on household survey estimates for 28 countries and an elasticity-type model that relates employment to economic growth and demographic outcomes.
- Agriculture still employs the majority of the labor force although workers are shifting slowly out of the sector.
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s projected rapid labor force growth, combined with a low baseline level of private sector wage employment, means that even if sub-Saharan Africa realizes another decade of strong growth, the share of labor force employed in private firms is not expected to rise substantially.
- Governments need to undertake measures to attract private enterprises that provide wage employment, but they also need to focus on improving productivity in the traditional and informal sectors as these will continue to absorb the majority of the labor force.
Key Findings
- Use of household survey estimates for 28 countries to derive employment structure for 2005–20.
- Agriculture currently employs the majority of the labor force; the shift out of agriculture is slow.
- Low baseline level of private sector wage employment constrains structural change in employment even under strong growth scenarios.
- Traditional and informal sectors will continue to absorb the majority of new labor force entrants.
Projections and Scenarios
- Time horizon of analysis: 2005–20.
- Scenario insight: Even with another decade of strong growth, the share of labor force employed in private firms is not expected to rise substantially due to rapid labor force growth and low baseline private wage employment.
Policy Recommendations
- Undertake measures to attract private enterprises that provide wage employment.
- Focus on improving productivity in the traditional and informal sectors, recognizing they will continue to absorb the majority of the labor force.
Louise Fox, Cleary Haines, Jorge Huerta Munoz, and Alun H. Thomas, "Africa's Got Work to Do: Employment Prospects in the New Century", IMF Working Papers 2013, 201 (2013). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484389195.001. Pages: 39. Volume: 2013. Issue: 201. Stock No: WPIEA2013201. ISBN: 9781484389195. ISSN: 1018-5941.