End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile
November 23, 2015
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Summary
This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.
Subject: Commodities, Commodity price shocks, Commodity prices, Metal prices, Prices
Keywords: Chile, Commodities, commodity, Commodity price shocks, Commodity prices, Copper, copper price fluctuation, copper price outlook, copper price series, copper price Supercycle, effect of commodity price shock, GDP deceleration, Global, Growth, macroeconomic effect of commodity price shock, Metal prices, negative commodity price shock, nominal copper price, price, price series, price shock, price volatility model, volatility model, WP
Pages:
27
Volume:
2015
DOI:
Issue:
242
Series:
Working Paper No. 2015/242
Stock No:
WPIEA2015242
ISBN:
9781513531557
ISSN:
1018-5941
