Growth: Now and Forever?
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2014/117
Subject:
Banking Debt sustainability analysis Economic forecasting External debt National accounts Output gap Personal income Production
English
Publication Date:
July 2, 2014
ISBN/ISSN:
9781498309820/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2014117
Pages:
27
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