The Global Impact of Demographic Change
IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2006
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Tim Callen, Warwick J. McKibbin, Nicoletta Batini
- Published: January 1, 2006
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451862690.001
Overview and Methodology
- Examines implications of demographic transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world.
- Uses a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics.
- Demographics are calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections.
Key Findings
- Population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time.
- Demographic change should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years as the relative size of their working-age populations increases.
- Demographic change will affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices.
Sensitivity Analyses
- Explores sensitivity of results to assumptions about future productivity growth for the developing country region.
- Explores sensitivity of results to assumptions about country external risk for the developing country region.
Subjects and Keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Aging, Demographic change, Health, Population and demographics, Population growth
- Keywords: Aging, baseline GDP, capital flows, Central and Eastern Europe, Demographic change, demographics, developing country bloc, developing country current account, developing country GDP, developing country goods, developing country region, East Africa, Europe, exchange rate, Global, growth rate, investment, labor resources, Middle East, output ratio, physical capital, Population growth, risk premium, saving, world GDP growth, WP